Intrinsic value of Newmont Mining Corporation - NEM

Previous Close

$39.42

  Intrinsic Value

$6.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$39.42

 
Intrinsic value

$6.59

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 21.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  7,674
  8,113
  8,571
  9,049
  9,549
  10,072
  10,618
  11,190
  11,788
  12,414
  13,069
  13,755
  14,474
  15,227
  16,017
  16,844
  17,711
  18,620
  19,574
  20,573
  21,622
  22,722
  23,876
  25,087
  26,357
  27,690
  29,089
  30,557
  32,098
  33,715
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,361
  6,725
  7,105
  7,502
  7,916
  8,350
  8,803
  9,276
  9,772
  10,291
  10,834
  11,403
  11,999
  12,623
  13,278
  13,964
  14,682
  15,436
  16,226
  17,055
  17,925
  18,837
  19,793
  20,797
  21,850
  22,955
  24,115
  25,332
  26,609
  27,949
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,361
  6,725
  7,105
  7,502
  7,916
  8,350
  8,803
  9,276
  9,772
  10,291
  10,834
  11,403
  11,999
  12,623
  13,278
  13,964
  14,682
  15,436
  16,226
  17,055
  17,925
  18,837
  19,793
  20,797
  21,850
  22,955
  24,115
  25,332
  26,609
  27,949
Operating income, $m
  1,312
  1,387
  1,466
  1,547
  1,633
  1,722
  1,816
  1,913
  2,016
  2,123
  2,235
  2,352
  2,475
  2,604
  2,739
  2,880
  3,029
  3,184
  3,347
  3,518
  3,697
  3,885
  4,083
  4,290
  4,507
  4,735
  4,974
  5,225
  5,489
  5,765
EBITDA, $m
  2,601
  2,750
  2,905
  3,067
  3,236
  3,414
  3,599
  3,792
  3,995
  4,207
  4,429
  4,662
  4,906
  5,161
  5,428
  5,709
  6,003
  6,311
  6,634
  6,973
  7,328
  7,701
  8,092
  8,502
  8,933
  9,385
  9,859
  10,356
  10,879
  11,427
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  230
  260
  291
  324
  358
  393
  430
  469
  510
  552
  597
  643
  692
  743
  797
  853
  912
  974
  1,038
  1,106
  1,177
  1,252
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,589
  1,684
  1,783
  1,887
  1,997
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,082
  1,128
  1,175
  1,224
  1,275
  1,329
  1,385
  1,444
  1,506
  1,570
  1,638
  1,709
  1,783
  1,860
  1,942
  2,027
  2,117
  2,210
  2,309
  2,412
  2,520
  2,634
  2,753
  2,878
  3,009
  3,146
  3,291
  3,442
  3,601
  3,768
Tax expense, $m
  292
  304
  317
  330
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  424
  442
  461
  481
  502
  524
  547
  571
  597
  623
  651
  680
  711
  743
  777
  812
  850
  888
  929
  972
  1,017
Net income, $m
  790
  823
  858
  893
  931
  970
  1,011
  1,054
  1,099
  1,146
  1,196
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,418
  1,480
  1,545
  1,614
  1,685
  1,761
  1,840
  1,923
  2,009
  2,101
  2,196
  2,297
  2,402
  2,513
  2,629
  2,751

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19,476
  20,590
  21,753
  22,968
  24,237
  25,563
  26,950
  28,401
  29,918
  31,507
  33,170
  34,912
  36,737
  38,648
  40,651
  42,751
  44,952
  47,259
  49,679
  52,217
  54,878
  57,670
  60,599
  63,672
  66,896
  70,279
  73,830
  77,556
  81,466
  85,570
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19,476
  20,590
  21,753
  22,968
  24,237
  25,563
  26,950
  28,401
  29,918
  31,507
  33,170
  34,912
  36,737
  38,648
  40,651
  42,751
  44,952
  47,259
  49,679
  52,217
  54,878
  57,670
  60,599
  63,672
  66,896
  70,279
  73,830
  77,556
  81,466
  85,570
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
Average production assets, $m
  13,015
  13,759
  14,536
  15,348
  16,196
  17,082
  18,009
  18,978
  19,992
  21,054
  22,165
  23,329
  24,548
  25,826
  27,164
  28,567
  30,038
  31,580
  33,197
  34,892
  36,671
  38,537
  40,494
  42,547
  44,702
  46,962
  49,335
  51,825
  54,437
  57,180
Working capital, $m
  737
  779
  823
  869
  917
  967
  1,019
  1,074
  1,132
  1,192
  1,255
  1,321
  1,390
  1,462
  1,538
  1,617
  1,700
  1,788
  1,879
  1,975
  2,076
  2,181
  2,292
  2,408
  2,530
  2,658
  2,793
  2,933
  3,081
  3,237
Total debt, $m
  4,809
  5,387
  5,991
  6,621
  7,280
  7,968
  8,688
  9,441
  10,229
  11,053
  11,916
  12,820
  13,767
  14,759
  15,799
  16,889
  18,031
  19,229
  20,484
  21,801
  23,183
  24,632
  26,152
  27,747
  29,420
  31,176
  33,019
  34,952
  36,982
  39,112
Total liabilities, $m
  10,108
  10,686
  11,290
  11,920
  12,579
  13,267
  13,987
  14,740
  15,528
  16,352
  17,215
  18,119
  19,066
  20,058
  21,098
  22,188
  23,330
  24,528
  25,783
  27,100
  28,482
  29,931
  31,451
  33,046
  34,719
  36,475
  38,318
  40,251
  42,281
  44,411
Total equity, $m
  9,368
  9,904
  10,463
  11,048
  11,658
  12,296
  12,963
  13,661
  14,391
  15,155
  15,955
  16,793
  17,670
  18,590
  19,553
  20,563
  21,622
  22,732
  23,896
  25,116
  26,396
  27,739
  29,148
  30,626
  32,177
  33,804
  35,512
  37,304
  39,185
  41,159
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19,476
  20,590
  21,753
  22,968
  24,237
  25,563
  26,950
  28,401
  29,919
  31,507
  33,170
  34,912
  36,736
  38,648
  40,651
  42,751
  44,952
  47,260
  49,679
  52,216
  54,878
  57,670
  60,599
  63,672
  66,896
  70,279
  73,830
  77,555
  81,466
  85,570
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  790
  823
  858
  893
  931
  970
  1,011
  1,054
  1,099
  1,146
  1,196
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,418
  1,480
  1,545
  1,614
  1,685
  1,761
  1,840
  1,923
  2,009
  2,101
  2,196
  2,297
  2,402
  2,513
  2,629
  2,751
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,289
  1,362
  1,439
  1,520
  1,604
  1,691
  1,783
  1,879
  1,979
  2,085
  2,195
  2,310
  2,431
  2,557
  2,690
  2,828
  2,974
  3,127
  3,287
  3,455
  3,631
  3,816
  4,009
  4,213
  4,426
  4,650
  4,885
  5,131
  5,390
  5,661
Funds from operations, $m
  2,079
  2,185
  2,297
  2,413
  2,535
  2,662
  2,794
  2,933
  3,079
  3,231
  3,390
  3,557
  3,732
  3,915
  4,107
  4,308
  4,519
  4,740
  4,972
  5,215
  5,470
  5,738
  6,019
  6,313
  6,622
  6,947
  7,287
  7,644
  8,019
  8,412
Change in working capital, $m
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
Cash from operations, $m
  2,038
  2,143
  2,253
  2,367
  2,487
  2,611
  2,742
  2,878
  3,021
  3,171
  3,327
  3,491
  3,663
  3,843
  4,031
  4,229
  4,436
  4,653
  4,881
  5,119
  5,370
  5,632
  5,908
  6,197
  6,500
  6,819
  7,153
  7,503
  7,871
  8,257
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,218
  -1,289
  -1,362
  -1,439
  -1,520
  -1,604
  -1,691
  -1,783
  -1,879
  -1,979
  -2,085
  -2,195
  -2,310
  -2,431
  -2,557
  -2,690
  -2,828
  -2,974
  -3,127
  -3,287
  -3,455
  -3,631
  -3,816
  -4,009
  -4,213
  -4,426
  -4,650
  -4,885
  -5,131
  -5,390
New CAPEX, $m
  -717
  -744
  -777
  -812
  -848
  -886
  -927
  -969
  -1,014
  -1,062
  -1,111
  -1,164
  -1,219
  -1,277
  -1,339
  -1,403
  -1,471
  -1,542
  -1,617
  -1,696
  -1,779
  -1,866
  -1,957
  -2,053
  -2,155
  -2,261
  -2,372
  -2,490
  -2,613
  -2,742
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,935
  -2,033
  -2,139
  -2,251
  -2,368
  -2,490
  -2,618
  -2,752
  -2,893
  -3,041
  -3,196
  -3,359
  -3,529
  -3,708
  -3,896
  -4,093
  -4,299
  -4,516
  -4,744
  -4,983
  -5,234
  -5,497
  -5,773
  -6,062
  -6,368
  -6,687
  -7,022
  -7,375
  -7,744
  -8,132
Free cash flow, $m
  104
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  124
  126
  128
  130
  131
  133
  134
  135
  136
  136
  137
  137
  137
  137
  137
  136
  135
  134
  133
  132
  130
  129
  127
  125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  548
  578
  604
  630
  659
  688
  720
  753
  788
  825
  863
  904
  947
  992
  1,040
  1,090
  1,142
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
  1,449
  1,520
  1,595
  1,673
  1,756
  1,843
  1,934
  2,029
  2,130
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  548
  578
  604
  630
  659
  688
  720
  753
  788
  825
  863
  904
  947
  992
  1,040
  1,090
  1,142
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
  1,449
  1,520
  1,595
  1,673
  1,756
  1,843
  1,934
  2,029
  2,130
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  652
  688
  717
  747
  778
  810
  844
  879
  916
  954
  995
  1,037
  1,081
  1,127
  1,175
  1,226
  1,279
  1,335
  1,393
  1,454
  1,518
  1,585
  1,655
  1,729
  1,807
  1,888
  1,973
  2,062
  2,156
  2,255
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -524
  -536
  -559
  -584
  -610
  -638
  -667
  -698
  -730
  -764
  -800
  -838
  -878
  -919
  -964
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,110
  -1,164
  -1,221
  -1,280
  -1,343
  -1,409
  -1,478
  -1,551
  -1,627
  -1,708
  -1,792
  -1,881
  -1,974
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,658
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,786
  153
  158
  162
  167
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  199
  203
  208
  212
  216
  220
  225
  229
  233
  238
  242
  247
  251
  256
  260
  265
  270
  275
  281
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,712
  140
  137
  134
  130
  125
  119
  113
  107
  100
  92
  85
  77
  70
  62
  55
  48
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Newmont Mining Corporation is a mining company, which is focused on the production of and exploration for gold and copper. The Company is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Australia, Peru, Ghana and Suriname. The Company's segments include North America, South America, Asia Pacific and Africa. The Company's North America segment consists primarily of Carlin, Phoenix, Twin Creeks and Long Canyon in the state of Nevada, and Cripple Creek &Victor (CC&V) in the state of Colorado, in the United States. The Company's South America segment consists primarily of Yanacocha in Peru and Merian in Suriname. The Company's Asia Pacific segment consists primarily of Boddington, Tanami and Kalgoorlie in Australia. The Company's Africa segment consists primarily of Ahafo and Akyem in Ghana. As of December 31, 2016, it had gold reserves of 68.5 million ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 23,000 square miles (59,000 square kilometers).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -33.4
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 37.8%
Total Debt to Equity 43%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital -3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity -5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
EBITDA Margin 15%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Operating Margin -1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin -9.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Effective Tax Rate -263.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.2%
Payout Ratio -10.7%

NEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Newmont Mining Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Newmont Mining Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Newmont Mining Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Newmont Mining Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Newmont Mining Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Newmont Mining Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEM are equal to 169.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Newmont Mining Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEM is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10502 million for Newmont Mining Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 534.701 million for Newmont Mining Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Newmont Mining Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $21.1 billion.

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