Intrinsic value of NewMarket - NEU

Previous Close

$425.56

  Intrinsic Value

$362.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

Previous close

$425.56

 
Intrinsic value

$362.19

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of NewMarket (NEU) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.30
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  2,049
  2,176
  2,308
  2,446
  2,590
  2,740
  2,896
  3,059
  3,230
  3,408
  3,594
  3,789
  3,993
  4,206
  4,429
  4,663
  4,908
  5,164
  5,432
  5,714
  6,009
  6,318
  6,642
  6,982
  7,339
  7,713
  8,105
  8,516
  8,948
  9,401
  9,876
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,813
  1,923
  2,038
  2,157
  2,282
  2,412
  2,548
  2,690
  2,839
  2,994
  3,156
  3,325
  3,503
  3,689
  3,883
  4,087
  4,300
  4,524
  4,758
  5,004
  5,262
  5,532
  5,815
  6,112
  6,423
  6,750
  7,092
  7,452
  7,829
  8,225
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,687
  1,813
  1,923
  2,038
  2,157
  2,282
  2,412
  2,548
  2,690
  2,839
  2,994
  3,156
  3,325
  3,503
  3,689
  3,883
  4,087
  4,300
  4,524
  4,758
  5,004
  5,262
  5,532
  5,815
  6,112
  6,423
  6,750
  7,092
  7,452
  7,829
  8,225
Operating income, $m
  363
  363
  386
  409
  433
  458
  484
  511
  540
  569
  601
  634
  668
  703
  741
  780
  821
  863
  908
  955
  1,005
  1,056
  1,111
  1,167
  1,227
  1,289
  1,355
  1,424
  1,496
  1,572
  1,651
EBITDA, $m
  408
  411
  436
  462
  489
  518
  547
  578
  610
  644
  679
  716
  754
  795
  837
  881
  927
  976
  1,026
  1,080
  1,135
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,387
  1,457
  1,531
  1,609
  1,691
  1,776
  1,866
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  343
  344
  364
  385
  406
  429
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  795
  835
  878
  922
  969
  1,017
  1,069
  1,122
  1,179
  1,238
  1,300
  1,365
  1,433
  1,505
Tax expense, $m
  100
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
  351
  369
  387
  406
Net income, $m
  243
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  367
  387
  407
  429
  451
  475
  499
  525
  552
  580
  610
  641
  673
  707
  743
  780
  819
  860
  904
  949
  996
  1,046
  1,099

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  192
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,416
  1,300
  1,379
  1,461
  1,547
  1,637
  1,730
  1,828
  1,930
  2,036
  2,147
  2,264
  2,385
  2,513
  2,646
  2,785
  2,932
  3,085
  3,245
  3,413
  3,589
  3,774
  3,968
  4,171
  4,384
  4,607
  4,842
  5,087
  5,345
  5,616
  5,900
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,224
  1,300
  1,379
  1,461
  1,547
  1,637
  1,730
  1,828
  1,930
  2,036
  2,147
  2,264
  2,385
  2,513
  2,646
  2,785
  2,932
  3,085
  3,245
  3,413
  3,589
  3,774
  3,968
  4,171
  4,384
  4,607
  4,842
  5,087
  5,345
  5,616
  5,900
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.673
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
Average production assets, $m
  459
  487
  517
  548
  580
  614
  649
  685
  724
  763
  805
  849
  894
  942
  992
  1,044
  1,099
  1,157
  1,217
  1,280
  1,346
  1,415
  1,488
  1,564
  1,644
  1,728
  1,815
  1,908
  2,004
  2,106
  2,212
Working capital, $m
  542
  372
  395
  418
  443
  469
  495
  523
  552
  583
  615
  648
  683
  719
  757
  797
  839
  883
  929
  977
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,386
  1,456
  1,530
  1,608
  1,689
Total debt, $m
  507
  565
  625
  688
  753
  821
  892
  967
  1,044
  1,125
  1,210
  1,299
  1,392
  1,489
  1,590
  1,697
  1,808
  1,925
  2,047
  2,175
  2,309
  2,450
  2,597
  2,752
  2,915
  3,085
  3,263
  3,451
  3,647
  3,853
  4,070
Total liabilities, $m
  933
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,393
  1,470
  1,551
  1,636
  1,725
  1,818
  1,915
  2,016
  2,123
  2,234
  2,351
  2,473
  2,601
  2,735
  2,876
  3,023
  3,178
  3,341
  3,511
  3,689
  3,877
  4,073
  4,279
  4,496
Total equity, $m
  483
  309
  328
  348
  368
  390
  412
  435
  459
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  772
  812
  854
  898
  944
  993
  1,043
  1,097
  1,152
  1,211
  1,272
  1,337
  1,404
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,416
  1,300
  1,379
  1,462
  1,547
  1,637
  1,730
  1,828
  1,929
  2,036
  2,147
  2,264
  2,386
  2,513
  2,646
  2,786
  2,932
  3,085
  3,245
  3,413
  3,589
  3,774
  3,967
  4,171
  4,384
  4,608
  4,841
  5,088
  5,345
  5,616
  5,900
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.820
  1.900
  1.980
  2.040
  2.110
  2.170
  2.220
  2.270
  2.320
  2.370
  2.410
  2.450
  2.490
  2.530
  2.560
  2.590
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.700
  2.730
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.810
  2.830
  2.850
  2.870
  2.880
  2.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  243
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  367
  387
  407
  429
  451
  475
  499
  525
  552
  580
  610
  641
  673
  707
  743
  780
  819
  860
  904
  949
  996
  1,046
  1,099
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  204
  215
Funds from operations, $m
  407
  299
  316
  335
  353
  373
  394
  415
  438
  461
  486
  511
  538
  566
  596
  626
  659
  692
  728
  765
  804
  844
  887
  932
  979
  1,028
  1,080
  1,134
  1,191
  1,251
  1,313
Change in working capital, $m
  54
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
Cash from operations, $m
  353
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  367
  387
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
  557
  586
  617
  649
  682
  717
  753
  792
  832
  874
  918
  964
  1,013
  1,064
  1,117
  1,173
  1,232
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -204
New CAPEX, $m
  -143
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -310
Free cash flow, $m
  210
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  272
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  484
  509
  536
  563
  592
  622
  653
  686
  721
  757
  795
  835
  877
  921
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  175
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  544
  572
  601
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
  808
  849
  891
  936
  983
  1,032
  1,083
  1,138
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -95
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  192
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  435
  258
  273
  288
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  486
  511
  537
  565
  593
  624
  655
  688
  723
  760
  798
  838
  880
  924
  970
  1,019
  1,070
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  417
  236
  238
  238
  236
  233
  229
  223
  216
  208
  198
  187
  176
  163
  150
  137
  123
  109
  96
  83
  71
  60
  50
  41
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NewMarket Corporation is a holding company. The Company is the parent company of Afton Chemical Corporation (Afton), Ethyl Corporation (Ethyl), NewMarket Services Corporation (NewMarket Services), and NewMarket Development Corporation (NewMarket Development). The Company operates through petroleum additives segment, which is primarily represented by Afton. The Company manufactures chemical components that are selected to perform one or more specific functions and combine those chemicals with other chemicals or components to form additive packages for use in specified end user applications. The petroleum additives product applications include lubricant additives and fuel additives. The Company's All other category includes the operations of the TEL business, as well as contract manufacturing and services performed by Ethyl. The Ethyl plant facility is located in Houston, Texas. It is involved in terminal operations related to TEL and other fuel additives.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NewMarket (NEU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.8
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 10.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 24
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 105%
Total Debt to Equity 105%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Return On Total Capital 26%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Return On Equity 55.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Operating Margin 17.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Effective Tax Rate 29.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 31.3%

NEU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2049 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NewMarket. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NewMarket. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NEU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NewMarket, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NewMarket.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for NewMarket.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NewMarket. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEU are equal to 22.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NewMarket operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEU is equal to 17.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $483 million for NewMarket - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.727 million for NewMarket is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NewMarket at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NewMarket Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-07-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ NewMarket posts 4Q profit   [Feb-06-18 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Buy NewMarket Corporation (NYSE:NEU)?   [Jan-30-18 06:01AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NewMarket Corp. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NewMarket Corp. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 12:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NewMarket Corp. : November 10, 2017   [Nov-10-17 12:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NewMarket Corp. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 12:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NewMarket Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-26-17 05:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ NewMarket posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ NewMarket posts 2Q profit   [03:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NewMarket Corp. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NewMarket Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-27-17 05:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ NewMarket posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 4 Commodity Stocks Are Showing Bullish Chart Patterns   [Mar-14-17 05:30AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 14 Dividend Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With A Raise   [Feb-27-17 11:49AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ NewMarket posts 4Q profit   [Jan-31-17 05:47PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of NEU
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