Intrinsic value of Northfield Bancorp - NFBK

Previous Close

$16.54

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$16.54

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NFBK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  319
  335
  352
  370
  388
  408
  429
  450
  473
  497
  522
  548
Variable operating expenses, $m
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
Operating income, $m
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
EBITDA, $m
  459
  484
  511
  539
  569
  600
  632
  666
  701
  738
  777
  817
  860
  904
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,220
  1,282
  1,347
  1,416
  1,487
  1,563
  1,641
  1,724
  1,811
  1,902
  1,998
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  199
  191
  199
  208
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  452
  473
  495
  517
  541
  566
  593
  620
  649
Earnings before tax, $m
  -154
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -435
  -455
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -154
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -435
  -455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,995
  3,163
  3,340
  3,524
  3,716
  3,917
  4,128
  4,348
  4,578
  4,820
  5,072
  5,337
  5,614
  5,905
  6,210
  6,529
  6,864
  7,215
  7,584
  7,970
  8,375
  8,801
  9,247
  9,715
  10,206
  10,721
  11,262
  11,830
  12,426
  13,051
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,995
  3,163
  3,340
  3,524
  3,716
  3,917
  4,128
  4,348
  4,578
  4,820
  5,072
  5,337
  5,614
  5,905
  6,210
  6,529
  6,864
  7,215
  7,584
  7,970
  8,375
  8,801
  9,247
  9,715
  10,206
  10,721
  11,262
  11,830
  12,426
  13,051
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
  0.042
Average production assets, $m
  4,140
  4,373
  4,616
  4,871
  5,137
  5,415
  5,706
  6,010
  6,329
  6,662
  7,012
  7,378
  7,761
  8,163
  8,584
  9,026
  9,489
  9,974
  10,483
  11,018
  11,578
  12,166
  12,782
  13,429
  14,108
  14,821
  15,568
  16,353
  17,177
  18,041
Working capital, $m
  -3,499
  -3,696
  -3,902
  -4,117
  -4,342
  -4,577
  -4,823
  -5,080
  -5,350
  -5,632
  -5,927
  -6,236
  -6,560
  -6,900
  -7,256
  -7,629
  -8,021
  -8,431
  -8,862
  -9,313
  -9,787
  -10,283
  -10,805
  -11,352
  -11,925
  -12,528
  -13,160
  -13,823
  -14,519
  -15,250
Total debt, $m
  3,533
  3,684
  3,843
  4,009
  4,182
  4,363
  4,552
  4,750
  4,958
  5,175
  5,402
  5,641
  5,890
  6,152
  6,426
  6,714
  7,015
  7,331
  7,663
  8,011
  8,375
  8,758
  9,159
  9,581
  10,023
  10,487
  10,973
  11,484
  12,021
  12,583
Total liabilities, $m
  2,695
  2,847
  3,006
  3,171
  3,344
  3,525
  3,715
  3,913
  4,120
  4,338
  4,565
  4,803
  5,053
  5,315
  5,589
  5,876
  6,178
  6,494
  6,825
  7,173
  7,538
  7,921
  8,322
  8,743
  9,185
  9,649
  10,136
  10,647
  11,183
  11,746
Total equity, $m
  299
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
  534
  561
  591
  621
  653
  686
  722
  758
  797
  838
  880
  925
  971
  1,021
  1,072
  1,126
  1,183
  1,243
  1,305
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,994
  3,163
  3,340
  3,523
  3,716
  3,917
  4,128
  4,348
  4,578
  4,820
  5,072
  5,337
  5,614
  5,906
  6,210
  6,529
  6,864
  7,216
  7,583
  7,970
  8,376
  8,801
  9,247
  9,714
  10,206
  10,721
  11,262
  11,830
  12,426
  13,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  11.800
  11.650
  11.510
  11.380
  11.250
  11.140
  11.030
  10.930
  10.830
  10.740
  10.650
  10.570
  10.490
  10.420
  10.350
  10.280
  10.220
  10.160
  10.100
  10.050
  10.000
  9.950
  9.910
  9.860
  9.820
  9.780
  9.740
  9.710
  9.670
  9.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -154
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -435
  -455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  414
  437
  462
  487
  514
  541
  571
  601
  633
  666
  701
  738
  776
  816
  858
  903
  949
  997
  1,048
  1,102
  1,158
  1,217
  1,278
  1,343
  1,411
  1,482
  1,557
  1,635
  1,718
  1,804
Funds from operations, $m
  260
  294
  312
  332
  352
  374
  396
  420
  444
  470
  497
  525
  555
  586
  619
  653
  688
  726
  765
  806
  850
  895
  943
  993
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
  1,282
  1,349
Change in working capital, $m
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -497
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -696
  -731
Cash from operations, $m
  449
  491
  518
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  714
  752
  792
  835
  879
  926
  975
  1,026
  1,080
  1,136
  1,196
  1,258
  1,323
  1,392
  1,464
  1,540
  1,619
  1,703
  1,790
  1,882
  1,978
  2,080
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -392
  -414
  -437
  -462
  -487
  -514
  -541
  -571
  -601
  -633
  -666
  -701
  -738
  -776
  -816
  -858
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,048
  -1,102
  -1,158
  -1,217
  -1,278
  -1,343
  -1,411
  -1,482
  -1,557
  -1,635
  -1,718
New CAPEX, $m
  -219
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -366
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -588
  -617
  -647
  -679
  -712
  -748
  -785
  -824
  -865
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -611
  -647
  -680
  -716
  -753
  -792
  -832
  -875
  -920
  -967
  -1,015
  -1,067
  -1,121
  -1,178
  -1,237
  -1,300
  -1,366
  -1,435
  -1,506
  -1,582
  -1,662
  -1,746
  -1,834
  -1,925
  -2,022
  -2,123
  -2,230
  -2,342
  -2,459
  -2,583
Free cash flow, $m
  -163
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -369
  -386
  -403
  -421
  -440
  -460
  -480
  -502
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -147
  152
  158
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  401
  421
  442
  464
  487
  511
  536
  563
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  459
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  312
  313
  325
  340
  353
  369
  384
  401
  418
  437
  456
  477
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  623
  652
  682
  714
  747
  781
  818
  857
  897
  940
  984
  1,031
  1,081
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
  340
  357
  375
  393
  412
  433
  454
  476
  500
  525
  551
  578
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -459
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -304
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
Discount rate, %
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.48
  18.35
  19.27
  20.24
  21.25
  22.31
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.12
  28.47
  29.90
  31.39
  32.96
  34.61
  36.34
  38.16
  40.06
  42.07
  44.17
  46.38
  48.70
  51.13
  53.69
  56.38
  59.19
  62.15
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -264
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  32.5
  21.3
  14.0
  9.3
  6.2
  4.1
  2.8
  1.9
  1.3
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Northfield Bank that provides various banking products and services primarily to individuals and corporate customers. It accepts various deposits products, including transaction accounts comprising negotiable orders of withdrawal accounts and non-interest bearing checking accounts; savings accounts, such as money market, passbook, and statement savings; certificates of deposit consisting of individual retirement accounts; and brokered deposits. The company also offers various loans comprising multifamily and other commercial real estate loans, construction and land loans, commercial and industrial loans, one-to-four family residential real estate loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit. In addition, it purchases various investment securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, and depositing funds in other financial institutions, as well as holds primarily mortgage loans and other real estate related investments. The company operates through its home office located in Staten Island, New York; operations center located in Woodbridge, New Jersey; 38 additional branch offices in New York and New Jersey; and a non-branch office located in Brooklyn, New York. Northfield Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1887 and is based in Woodbridge, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northfield Bancorp (NFBK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NFBK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NFBK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $119 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northfield Bancorp. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Northfield Bancorp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NFBK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.1%, whose default value for NFBK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northfield Bancorp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northfield Bancorp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NFBK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NFBK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Northfield Bancorp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northfield Bancorp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NFBK stock is equal to 7.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NFBK are equal to 3291.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northfield Bancorp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NFBK is equal to -2782.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Northfield Bancorp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45 million for Northfield Bancorp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northfield Bancorp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Northfield: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 07:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 07:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield reports 4Q loss   [Jan-24-18 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 07:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 11:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield Bancorp, Inc. Announces CEO Succession   [Jun-28-17 05:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Northfield posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Northfield posts 4Q profit   [Jan-25-17 06:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) Going to Burn Investors?   [Dec-16-16 12:54AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is MedEquities Realty Trust Inc (MRT) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 10:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Buy US Concrete Inc (USCR)?   [Nov-28  03:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
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