Intrinsic value of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. - NGS

Previous Close

$18.04

  Intrinsic Value

$4.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$18.04

 
Intrinsic value

$4.68

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.00
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
Variable operating expenses, $m
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
Operating income, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
EBITDA, $m
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Tax expense, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Net income, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  244
  252
  260
  270
  280
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  442
  463
  485
  507
  531
  557
  583
  611
  641
  672
  704
  739
  775
  813
  852
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  244
  252
  260
  270
  280
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  442
  463
  485
  507
  531
  557
  583
  611
  641
  672
  704
  739
  775
  813
  852
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.287
  0.286
  0.288
  0.285
  0.286
  0.286
  0.288
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.286
  0.287
  0.286
  0.286
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.288
  0.286
  0.287
  0.286
  0.286
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.286
  0.287
  0.288
Average production assets, $m
  191
  197
  203
  211
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  290
  302
  316
  330
  346
  362
  378
  396
  415
  435
  455
  477
  500
  525
  550
  577
  605
  635
  666
Working capital, $m
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
Total debt, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
Total equity, $m
  202
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  260
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  439
  460
  482
  505
  530
  555
  582
  611
  641
  672
  705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  244
  252
  260
  270
  279
  290
  301
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  531
  556
  583
  611
  641
  671
  704
  739
  775
  813
  852
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  14
  16
  17
  17
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  58
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  56
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.9
  99.8
  99.4
  98.9
  98.2
  97.4
  96.5
  95.5
  94.3
  93.1
  92.1
  91.1
  90.0
  88.8
  87.5
  86.3
  84.9
  83.6
  82.2
  80.9
  79.5
  78.1
  76.6
  75.2
  73.8
  72.4
  71.0
  69.6
  68.2
  66.8

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. is a provider of small to medium horsepower compression equipment to the natural gas industry. The Company focuses primarily on the non-conventional natural gas and oil production business in the United States, such as coal bed methane, gas shale, tight gas and oil shales. The Company manufactures, fabricates and rents natural gases compressors that enhance the production of natural gas wells and provides maintenance services for its natural gas compressors. In addition, it sells custom fabricated natural gas compressors to meet customer specifications dictated by well pressures, production characteristics and particular applications. It also manufactures and sells flare systems for oil and gas plant and production facilities. The Company's operating units include Gas Compressor Rental, Engineered Equipment Sales, Service and Maintenance, and Corporate.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.4
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -69.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -37.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity 2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.5%
EBITDA Margin 41.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
Operating Margin 12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $68 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NGS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Natural Gas Services Group, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGS are equal to 272.1%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGS is equal to 46.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $257.319 million for Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.117 million for Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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