Intrinsic value of Ingevity - NGVT

Previous Close

$89.98

  Intrinsic Value

$19.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

Previous close

$89.98

 
Intrinsic value

$19.21

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,041
  1,113
  1,187
  1,265
  1,346
  1,429
  1,517
  1,608
  1,703
  1,802
  1,905
  2,013
  2,126
  2,243
  2,366
  2,495
  2,629
  2,770
  2,917
  3,071
  3,233
  3,402
  3,579
  3,764
  3,959
  4,163
  4,377
  4,601
  4,836
  5,082
Variable operating expenses, $m
  925
  989
  1,055
  1,124
  1,196
  1,270
  1,348
  1,428
  1,513
  1,600
  1,690
  1,786
  1,886
  1,990
  2,099
  2,213
  2,333
  2,458
  2,588
  2,725
  2,868
  3,018
  3,175
  3,340
  3,513
  3,693
  3,883
  4,082
  4,291
  4,509
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  925
  989
  1,055
  1,124
  1,196
  1,270
  1,348
  1,428
  1,513
  1,600
  1,690
  1,786
  1,886
  1,990
  2,099
  2,213
  2,333
  2,458
  2,588
  2,725
  2,868
  3,018
  3,175
  3,340
  3,513
  3,693
  3,883
  4,082
  4,291
  4,509
Operating income, $m
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  180
  190
  201
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  329
  346
  364
  384
  404
  424
  446
  469
  493
  519
  545
  573
EBITDA, $m
  165
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  256
  271
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  376
  397
  418
  440
  464
  488
  514
  541
  569
  598
  629
  662
  696
  731
  769
  808
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
Earnings before tax, $m
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  276
  289
  304
  319
  334
  351
  368
  387
  406
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
Net income, $m
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  109
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  995
  1,064
  1,135
  1,209
  1,286
  1,367
  1,450
  1,537
  1,628
  1,723
  1,821
  1,924
  2,032
  2,145
  2,262
  2,385
  2,514
  2,648
  2,789
  2,936
  3,090
  3,252
  3,421
  3,599
  3,785
  3,980
  4,184
  4,398
  4,623
  4,859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  995
  1,064
  1,135
  1,209
  1,286
  1,367
  1,450
  1,537
  1,628
  1,723
  1,821
  1,924
  2,032
  2,145
  2,262
  2,385
  2,514
  2,648
  2,789
  2,936
  3,090
  3,252
  3,421
  3,599
  3,785
  3,980
  4,184
  4,398
  4,623
  4,859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.047
  1.045
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
Average production assets, $m
  481
  514
  549
  584
  622
  660
  701
  743
  787
  832
  880
  930
  982
  1,036
  1,093
  1,153
  1,215
  1,280
  1,348
  1,419
  1,493
  1,572
  1,653
  1,739
  1,829
  1,923
  2,022
  2,126
  2,234
  2,348
Working capital, $m
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  243
  255
  269
  283
  297
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  402
Total debt, $m
  500
  549
  601
  654
  709
  766
  826
  888
  953
  1,021
  1,092
  1,166
  1,243
  1,323
  1,407
  1,495
  1,587
  1,684
  1,785
  1,890
  2,001
  2,116
  2,237
  2,365
  2,498
  2,637
  2,784
  2,937
  3,098
  3,267
Total liabilities, $m
  713
  762
  813
  866
  921
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,233
  1,304
  1,378
  1,455
  1,536
  1,620
  1,708
  1,800
  1,896
  1,997
  2,102
  2,213
  2,328
  2,450
  2,577
  2,710
  2,849
  2,996
  3,149
  3,310
  3,479
Total equity, $m
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  412
  437
  462
  489
  517
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  714
  752
  792
  834
  878
  924
  972
  1,022
  1,075
  1,130
  1,188
  1,249
  1,313
  1,380
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  996
  1,064
  1,135
  1,209
  1,286
  1,366
  1,450
  1,538
  1,628
  1,722
  1,821
  1,925
  2,032
  2,145
  2,262
  2,385
  2,514
  2,648
  2,789
  2,936
  3,091
  3,252
  3,422
  3,599
  3,785
  3,979
  4,184
  4,398
  4,623
  4,859
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.770
  1.820
  1.860
  1.900
  1.940
  1.970
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.190
  2.210
  2.220
  2.240
  2.250
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.330
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
  2.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  109
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  223
  235
Funds from operations, $m
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  341
  358
  376
  396
  416
  436
  458
  481
  506
  531
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  345
  362
  381
  400
  420
  442
  464
  487
  512
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -223
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -337
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  311
  327
  343
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Cash available for distribution, $m
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  206
  217
  227
  239
  251
  263
  276
Discount rate, %
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  59
  59
  58
  57
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  43
  39
  36
  32
  29
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingevity Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and high performance carbon materials. The Company is also a manufacturer of activated carbon used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Company operates through two segments: Performance Materials and Performance Chemicals. The Performance Materials segment primarily produces automotive carbon products used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Performance Chemicals segment develops, manufactures and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the Kraft pulping process. Its products are used in a range of applications, including asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, publication inks and automotive components that reduce gasoline vapor emissions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingevity (NGVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 108.3
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 29.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 378.7%
Total Debt to Equity 385%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 49.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $972 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingevity. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ingevity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for NGVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingevity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingevity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ingevity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingevity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGVT stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGVT are equal to 46.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingevity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGVT is equal to 7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $264 million for Ingevity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42 million for Ingevity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingevity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What is Behind Ingevity Corporations (NYSE:NGVT) Superior ROE?   [Jun-24-18 10:14AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ingevity reports first quarter 2018 financial results   [May-02-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ingevity Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-21-18 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Ingevity prices $300 million senior notes offering   [Jan-09-18 05:59PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 84 RS Rating   [Jan-05-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity reports third quarter 2017 financial results   [Nov-01-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 83 RS Rating   [Oct-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity Sees RS Rating Climb To 71   [Sep-21-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity CEO: Oilfield business coming back   [Aug-31-17 07:32PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Ingevity reports second quarter 2017 financial results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:NGVT) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 06:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity reports first quarter 2017 financial results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:10PM  Capital Cube]
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