Intrinsic value of Ingevity - NGVT

Previous Close

$104.93

  Intrinsic Value

$29.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$104.93

 
Intrinsic value

$29.22

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.60
  17.24
  16.02
  14.91
  13.92
  13.03
  12.23
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
Revenue, $m
  1,153
  1,352
  1,569
  1,803
  2,054
  2,321
  2,605
  2,905
  3,220
  3,551
  3,897
  4,258
  4,634
  5,026
  5,434
  5,857
  6,298
  6,756
  7,231
  7,726
  8,240
  8,774
  9,331
  9,910
  10,513
  11,141
  11,796
  12,479
  13,192
  13,936
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,024
  1,200
  1,392
  1,599
  1,822
  2,059
  2,310
  2,576
  2,855
  3,148
  3,453
  3,773
  4,107
  4,454
  4,815
  5,191
  5,581
  5,987
  6,409
  6,847
  7,302
  7,776
  8,269
  8,782
  9,317
  9,873
  10,454
  11,059
  11,691
  12,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,024
  1,200
  1,392
  1,599
  1,822
  2,059
  2,310
  2,576
  2,855
  3,148
  3,453
  3,773
  4,107
  4,454
  4,815
  5,191
  5,581
  5,987
  6,409
  6,847
  7,302
  7,776
  8,269
  8,782
  9,317
  9,873
  10,454
  11,059
  11,691
  12,350
Operating income, $m
  129
  152
  177
  203
  232
  262
  295
  329
  365
  402
  443
  484
  527
  572
  618
  666
  717
  769
  823
  879
  938
  998
  1,062
  1,128
  1,196
  1,268
  1,342
  1,420
  1,501
  1,586
EBITDA, $m
  178
  209
  242
  279
  317
  359
  403
  449
  498
  549
  602
  658
  716
  777
  840
  906
  974
  1,044
  1,118
  1,194
  1,274
  1,356
  1,442
  1,532
  1,625
  1,722
  1,824
  1,929
  2,039
  2,154
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  24
  31
  39
  47
  55
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  425
  450
  476
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  121
  138
  157
  177
  198
  220
  244
  269
  295
  324
  352
  381
  412
  444
  477
  512
  547
  585
  623
  663
  705
  749
  794
  841
  890
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
Tax expense, $m
  28
  33
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
Net income, $m
  77
  88
  101
  114
  129
  144
  161
  178
  196
  215
  236
  257
  278
  301
  324
  348
  373
  400
  427
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  614
  650
  687
  727
  767
  810

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,103
  1,293
  1,500
  1,723
  1,963
  2,219
  2,490
  2,777
  3,078
  3,394
  3,725
  4,070
  4,430
  4,805
  5,195
  5,600
  6,021
  6,459
  6,913
  7,386
  7,877
  8,389
  8,920
  9,474
  10,050
  10,651
  11,277
  11,930
  12,612
  13,323
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,103
  1,293
  1,500
  1,723
  1,963
  2,219
  2,490
  2,777
  3,078
  3,394
  3,725
  4,070
  4,430
  4,805
  5,195
  5,600
  6,021
  6,459
  6,913
  7,386
  7,877
  8,389
  8,920
  9,474
  10,050
  10,651
  11,277
  11,930
  12,612
  13,323
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
  1.046
Average production assets, $m
  522
  612
  711
  817
  930
  1,051
  1,180
  1,316
  1,459
  1,608
  1,765
  1,929
  2,099
  2,277
  2,461
  2,653
  2,853
  3,060
  3,276
  3,500
  3,733
  3,975
  4,227
  4,489
  4,762
  5,047
  5,344
  5,653
  5,976
  6,313
Working capital, $m
  163
  191
  221
  254
  290
  327
  367
  410
  454
  501
  549
  600
  653
  709
  766
  826
  888
  953
  1,020
  1,089
  1,162
  1,237
  1,316
  1,397
  1,482
  1,571
  1,663
  1,760
  1,860
  1,965
Total debt, $m
  577
  713
  861
  1,022
  1,193
  1,377
  1,571
  1,776
  1,992
  2,218
  2,455
  2,702
  2,960
  3,228
  3,507
  3,797
  4,099
  4,412
  4,738
  5,076
  5,428
  5,794
  6,175
  6,571
  6,984
  7,414
  7,862
  8,330
  8,818
  9,327
Total liabilities, $m
  789
  926
  1,074
  1,234
  1,406
  1,589
  1,783
  1,988
  2,204
  2,430
  2,667
  2,914
  3,172
  3,440
  3,719
  4,010
  4,311
  4,624
  4,950
  5,288
  5,640
  6,006
  6,387
  6,783
  7,196
  7,626
  8,074
  8,542
  9,030
  9,539
Total equity, $m
  313
  367
  426
  489
  558
  630
  707
  789
  874
  964
  1,058
  1,156
  1,258
  1,365
  1,475
  1,590
  1,710
  1,834
  1,963
  2,098
  2,237
  2,382
  2,533
  2,691
  2,854
  3,025
  3,203
  3,388
  3,582
  3,784
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,102
  1,293
  1,500
  1,723
  1,964
  2,219
  2,490
  2,777
  3,078
  3,394
  3,725
  4,070
  4,430
  4,805
  5,194
  5,600
  6,021
  6,458
  6,913
  7,386
  7,877
  8,388
  8,920
  9,474
  10,050
  10,651
  11,277
  11,930
  12,612
  13,323
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.840
  1.940
  2.020
  2.090
  2.140
  2.180
  2.220
  2.250
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.350
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.410
  2.410
  2.420
  2.430
  2.430
  2.440
  2.440
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.460
  2.460
  2.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  88
  101
  114
  129
  144
  161
  178
  196
  215
  236
  257
  278
  301
  324
  348
  373
  400
  427
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  614
  650
  687
  727
  767
  810
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  57
  66
  75
  86
  96
  108
  120
  133
  147
  159
  174
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  276
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  404
  429
  455
  481
  509
  538
  569
Funds from operations, $m
  125
  145
  167
  190
  215
  241
  269
  298
  329
  362
  395
  431
  468
  506
  546
  587
  630
  675
  722
  770
  821
  873
  927
  984
  1,043
  1,105
  1,169
  1,236
  1,306
  1,379
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  117
  136
  157
  179
  203
  229
  256
  285
  315
  346
  380
  414
  451
  488
  528
  568
  611
  655
  701
  748
  798
  849
  902
  958
  1,016
  1,077
  1,140
  1,205
  1,274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -106
  -119
  -131
  -145
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -205
  -222
  -239
  -257
  -276
  -295
  -315
  -336
  -358
  -381
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -481
  -509
  -538
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -323
  -337
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -137
  -153
  -170
  -188
  -205
  -224
  -242
  -262
  -281
  -302
  -323
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -414
  -439
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -578
  -610
  -643
  -677
  -714
  -752
  -790
  -832
  -875
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -13
  -8
  -2
  6
  14
  23
  34
  45
  57
  70
  84
  99
  114
  130
  146
  164
  181
  200
  219
  239
  259
  281
  302
  325
  349
  373
  398
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  124
  136
  148
  160
  172
  183
  194
  205
  216
  226
  237
  247
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  313
  326
  338
  352
  366
  381
  396
  413
  430
  448
  468
  488
  509
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  124
  136
  148
  160
  172
  183
  194
  205
  216
  226
  237
  247
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  313
  326
  338
  352
  366
  381
  396
  413
  430
  448
  468
  488
  509
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  102
  116
  131
  147
  164
  181
  200
  219
  239
  260
  282
  304
  328
  352
  378
  404
  431
  460
  489
  520
  552
  585
  620
  656
  693
  733
  774
  816
  861
  908
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -194
  -202
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  52
  62
  72
  83
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  188
  206
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  335
  360
  386
  412
  440
  469
  499
  530
  562
  596
  631
  667
  706
Discount rate, %
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  49
  55
  60
  64
  68
  71
  73
  74
  73
  72
  70
  66
  62
  57
  52
  47
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingevity Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and high performance carbon materials. The Company is also a manufacturer of activated carbon used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Company operates through two segments: Performance Materials and Performance Chemicals. The Performance Materials segment primarily produces automotive carbon products used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Performance Chemicals segment develops, manufactures and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the Kraft pulping process. Its products are used in a range of applications, including asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, publication inks and automotive components that reduce gasoline vapor emissions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingevity (NGVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 126.3
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 34.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 62.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 378.7%
Total Debt to Equity 385%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 49.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $972.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingevity. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ingevity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for NGVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingevity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingevity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ingevity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingevity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGVT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGVT are equal to 45.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingevity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGVT is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $263.9 million for Ingevity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.047 million for Ingevity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingevity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ingevity publishes inaugural sustainability report   [Sep-10-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ IBD Stock Of The Day: Ford F-150 Helps Drive This Stock To New Heights   [Sep-05-18 04:12PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity reports second quarter 2018 financial results   [Jul-25-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ What is Behind Ingevity Corporations (NYSE:NGVT) Superior ROE?   [Jun-24-18 10:14AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ingevity reports first quarter 2018 financial results   [May-02-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ingevity Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-21-18 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Ingevity prices $300 million senior notes offering   [Jan-09-18 05:59PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 84 RS Rating   [Jan-05-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity reports third quarter 2017 financial results   [Nov-01-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 83 RS Rating   [Oct-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity Sees RS Rating Climb To 71   [Sep-21-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity CEO: Oilfield business coming back   [Aug-31-17 07:32PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Ingevity reports second quarter 2017 financial results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:NGVT) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 06:03PM  Capital Cube]

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