Intrinsic value of NiSource, Inc - NI

Previous Close

$29.34

  Intrinsic Value

$4.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$29.34

 
Intrinsic value

$4.34

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  5,463
  5,824
  6,201
  6,592
  6,999
  7,424
  7,866
  8,327
  8,808
  9,310
  9,834
  10,381
  10,953
  11,550
  12,176
  12,829
  13,514
  14,230
  14,980
  15,765
  16,588
  17,450
  18,354
  19,301
  20,293
  21,334
  22,426
  23,570
  24,771
  26,031
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,417
  4,697
  4,988
  5,291
  5,606
  5,934
  6,277
  6,633
  7,005
  7,393
  7,608
  8,031
  8,473
  8,936
  9,419
  9,925
  10,455
  11,009
  11,589
  12,197
  12,833
  13,500
  14,199
  14,932
  15,700
  16,505
  17,349
  18,235
  19,164
  20,138
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,417
  4,697
  4,988
  5,291
  5,606
  5,934
  6,277
  6,633
  7,005
  7,393
  7,608
  8,031
  8,473
  8,936
  9,419
  9,925
  10,455
  11,009
  11,589
  12,197
  12,833
  13,500
  14,199
  14,932
  15,700
  16,505
  17,349
  18,235
  19,164
  20,138
Operating income, $m
  1,045
  1,127
  1,212
  1,301
  1,393
  1,489
  1,589
  1,694
  1,803
  1,916
  2,226
  2,350
  2,479
  2,615
  2,756
  2,904
  3,059
  3,221
  3,391
  3,569
  3,755
  3,950
  4,155
  4,369
  4,594
  4,829
  5,076
  5,335
  5,607
  5,892
EBITDA, $m
  1,841
  1,963
  2,090
  2,222
  2,359
  2,502
  2,651
  2,807
  2,969
  3,138
  3,314
  3,499
  3,691
  3,893
  4,104
  4,324
  4,555
  4,796
  5,049
  5,313
  5,591
  5,881
  6,186
  6,505
  6,840
  7,190
  7,558
  7,944
  8,349
  8,773
Interest expense (income), $m
  338
  493
  550
  611
  675
  741
  810
  882
  957
  1,035
  1,116
  1,201
  1,289
  1,382
  1,479
  1,580
  1,685
  1,796
  1,912
  2,033
  2,160
  2,293
  2,432
  2,578
  2,730
  2,890
  3,058
  3,234
  3,419
  3,613
  3,816
Earnings before tax, $m
  552
  577
  601
  626
  652
  679
  708
  737
  768
  800
  1,025
  1,060
  1,097
  1,136
  1,176
  1,219
  1,263
  1,309
  1,358
  1,409
  1,462
  1,518
  1,577
  1,639
  1,703
  1,771
  1,842
  1,916
  1,995
  2,077
Tax expense, $m
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  277
  286
  296
  307
  318
  329
  341
  354
  367
  380
  395
  410
  426
  442
  460
  478
  497
  517
  539
  561
Net income, $m
  403
  421
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  538
  561
  584
  748
  774
  801
  829
  859
  890
  922
  956
  991
  1,028
  1,067
  1,108
  1,151
  1,196
  1,243
  1,293
  1,345
  1,399
  1,456
  1,516

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  23,246
  24,785
  26,386
  28,051
  29,785
  31,591
  33,472
  35,434
  37,480
  39,616
  41,845
  44,174
  46,607
  49,151
  51,811
  54,593
  57,505
  60,553
  63,744
  67,086
  70,588
  74,256
  78,100
  82,130
  86,354
  90,784
  95,428
  100,300
  105,409
  110,769
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  23,246
  24,785
  26,386
  28,051
  29,785
  31,591
  33,472
  35,434
  37,480
  39,616
  41,845
  44,174
  46,607
  49,151
  51,811
  54,593
  57,505
  60,553
  63,744
  67,086
  70,588
  74,256
  78,100
  82,130
  86,354
  90,784
  95,428
  100,300
  105,409
  110,769
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
Average production assets, $m
  16,989
  18,114
  19,284
  20,501
  21,768
  23,088
  24,463
  25,897
  27,393
  28,953
  30,583
  32,285
  34,063
  35,922
  37,866
  39,900
  42,028
  44,255
  46,587
  49,030
  51,589
  54,270
  57,080
  60,025
  63,112
  66,349
  69,744
  73,304
  77,038
  80,956
Working capital, $m
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -390
Total debt, $m
  10,189
  11,321
  12,499
  13,725
  15,001
  16,330
  17,715
  19,159
  20,665
  22,237
  23,878
  25,592
  27,382
  29,255
  31,212
  33,260
  35,403
  37,646
  39,995
  42,455
  45,032
  47,732
  50,561
  53,527
  56,636
  59,896
  63,315
  66,900
  70,661
  74,606
Total liabilities, $m
  17,109
  18,242
  19,420
  20,646
  21,922
  23,251
  24,636
  26,080
  27,586
  29,157
  30,798
  32,512
  34,303
  36,175
  38,133
  40,181
  42,324
  44,567
  46,916
  49,376
  51,952
  54,652
  57,482
  60,448
  63,557
  66,817
  70,235
  73,821
  77,581
  81,526
Total equity, $m
  6,137
  6,543
  6,966
  7,405
  7,863
  8,340
  8,837
  9,355
  9,895
  10,459
  11,047
  11,662
  12,304
  12,976
  13,678
  14,413
  15,181
  15,986
  16,828
  17,711
  18,635
  19,604
  20,618
  21,682
  22,798
  23,967
  25,193
  26,479
  27,828
  29,243
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  23,246
  24,785
  26,386
  28,051
  29,785
  31,591
  33,473
  35,435
  37,481
  39,616
  41,845
  44,174
  46,607
  49,151
  51,811
  54,594
  57,505
  60,553
  63,744
  67,087
  70,587
  74,256
  78,100
  82,130
  86,355
  90,784
  95,428
  100,300
  105,409
  110,769
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.660
  1.730
  1.790
  1.850
  1.910
  1.960
  2.000
  2.050
  2.090
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.230
  2.250
  2.280
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
  2.380
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.450
  2.470
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  403
  421
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  538
  561
  584
  748
  774
  801
  829
  859
  890
  922
  956
  991
  1,028
  1,067
  1,108
  1,151
  1,196
  1,243
  1,293
  1,345
  1,399
  1,456
  1,516
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  796
  836
  877
  921
  966
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,166
  1,221
  1,088
  1,149
  1,212
  1,278
  1,348
  1,420
  1,496
  1,575
  1,658
  1,745
  1,836
  1,931
  2,031
  2,136
  2,246
  2,361
  2,482
  2,609
  2,742
  2,881
Funds from operations, $m
  1,199
  1,257
  1,316
  1,378
  1,442
  1,509
  1,578
  1,651
  1,727
  1,806
  1,837
  1,923
  2,013
  2,108
  2,206
  2,310
  2,418
  2,531
  2,649
  2,773
  2,903
  3,040
  3,183
  3,332
  3,489
  3,654
  3,827
  4,008
  4,198
  4,397
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  1,204
  1,262
  1,322
  1,384
  1,448
  1,515
  1,585
  1,658
  1,734
  1,813
  1,845
  1,931
  2,022
  2,117
  2,216
  2,319
  2,428
  2,541
  2,660
  2,785
  2,916
  3,053
  3,196
  3,346
  3,504
  3,670
  3,843
  4,025
  4,216
  4,416
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -566
  -605
  -645
  -686
  -730
  -775
  -822
  -871
  -922
  -975
  -1,030
  -1,088
  -1,149
  -1,212
  -1,278
  -1,348
  -1,420
  -1,496
  -1,575
  -1,658
  -1,745
  -1,836
  -1,931
  -2,031
  -2,136
  -2,246
  -2,361
  -2,482
  -2,609
  -2,742
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,080
  -1,125
  -1,170
  -1,217
  -1,267
  -1,320
  -1,375
  -1,434
  -1,496
  -1,561
  -1,629
  -1,702
  -1,778
  -1,859
  -1,944
  -2,034
  -2,128
  -2,228
  -2,332
  -2,443
  -2,559
  -2,681
  -2,810
  -2,945
  -3,087
  -3,237
  -3,395
  -3,560
  -3,734
  -3,917
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,646
  -1,730
  -1,815
  -1,903
  -1,997
  -2,095
  -2,197
  -2,305
  -2,418
  -2,536
  -2,659
  -2,790
  -2,927
  -3,071
  -3,222
  -3,382
  -3,548
  -3,724
  -3,907
  -4,101
  -4,304
  -4,517
  -4,741
  -4,976
  -5,223
  -5,483
  -5,756
  -6,042
  -6,343
  -6,659
Free cash flow, $m
  -442
  -467
  -493
  -520
  -549
  -579
  -612
  -647
  -683
  -722
  -815
  -859
  -905
  -955
  -1,007
  -1,062
  -1,120
  -1,182
  -1,247
  -1,315
  -1,388
  -1,464
  -1,545
  -1,630
  -1,719
  -1,814
  -1,913
  -2,017
  -2,127
  -2,243
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,056
  1,133
  1,178
  1,226
  1,276
  1,329
  1,385
  1,444
  1,506
  1,572
  1,641
  1,714
  1,791
  1,872
  1,958
  2,048
  2,143
  2,243
  2,349
  2,460
  2,577
  2,700
  2,829
  2,966
  3,109
  3,260
  3,419
  3,585
  3,761
  3,945
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,056
  1,133
  1,178
  1,226
  1,276
  1,329
  1,385
  1,444
  1,506
  1,572
  1,641
  1,714
  1,791
  1,872
  1,958
  2,048
  2,143
  2,243
  2,349
  2,460
  2,577
  2,700
  2,829
  2,966
  3,109
  3,260
  3,419
  3,585
  3,761
  3,945
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  614
  666
  685
  706
  727
  750
  773
  797
  823
  849
  826
  855
  885
  917
  951
  986
  1,023
  1,062
  1,102
  1,144
  1,189
  1,236
  1,285
  1,336
  1,390
  1,446
  1,506
  1,568
  1,633
  1,702
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -386
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -477
  -497
  -518
  -540
  -564
  -589
  -615
  -642
  -672
  -702
  -735
  -769
  -805
  -842
  -882
  -924
  -968
  -1,015
  -1,064
  -1,115
  -1,169
  -1,226
  -1,286
  -1,349
  -1,415
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  228
  260
  263
  266
  270
  273
  276
  279
  283
  286
  237
  240
  243
  246
  249
  252
  254
  257
  259
  262
  265
  267
  270
  272
  275
  277
  279
  282
  284
  287
Discount rate, %
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  207
  213
  192
  172
  152
  133
  115
  97
  82
  68
  45
  36
  28
  22
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NiSource Inc. is an energy holding company. The Company is engaged in the distribution of natural gas. The Company operates through two business segments: Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The Company's Gas Distribution Operations segment provides natural gas service and transportation for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland, Indiana and Massachusetts. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's Electric Operations segment provided electric services in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana. The Company's electric operations segment generated, transmitted and distributed electricity through the Company's subsidiary NIPSCO to approximately 466,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana and engaged in wholesale and transmission transactions, as of December 31, 2016. NIPSCO owned and operated three coal-fired electric generating stations, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NiSource, Inc (NI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 148.8%
Total Debt to Equity 194.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 31%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Operating Margin 19.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 62%

NI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5115 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NiSource, Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NiSource, Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for NI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NiSource, Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NiSource, Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for NiSource, Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NiSource, Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NI are equal to 311%.

Life of production assets of 28.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NiSource, Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NI is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5750.9 million for NiSource, Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 372.535 million for NiSource, Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NiSource, Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.9 billion.

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