Intrinsic value of NICE Ltd - NICE

Previous Close

$117.00

  Intrinsic Value

$102.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-12%

Previous close

$117.00

 
Intrinsic value

$102.93

 
Up/down potential

-12%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NICE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.20
  28.58
  26.22
  24.10
  22.19
  20.47
  18.92
  17.53
  16.28
  15.15
  14.14
  13.22
  12.40
  11.66
  10.99
  10.39
  9.85
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
Revenue, $m
  1,748
  2,247
  2,836
  3,520
  4,301
  5,181
  6,162
  7,242
  8,421
  9,697
  11,067
  12,531
  14,084
  15,727
  17,455
  19,270
  21,169
  23,152
  25,220
  27,374
  29,615
  31,944
  34,366
  36,882
  39,497
  42,215
  45,040
  47,978
  51,035
  54,217
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,459
  1,822
  2,251
  2,748
  3,316
  3,957
  4,670
  5,456
  6,314
  7,242
  8,053
  9,117
  10,248
  11,443
  12,701
  14,021
  15,403
  16,846
  18,351
  19,918
  21,548
  23,243
  25,005
  26,836
  28,738
  30,716
  32,772
  34,909
  37,134
  39,448
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,459
  1,822
  2,251
  2,748
  3,316
  3,957
  4,670
  5,456
  6,314
  7,242
  8,053
  9,117
  10,248
  11,443
  12,701
  14,021
  15,403
  16,846
  18,351
  19,918
  21,548
  23,243
  25,005
  26,836
  28,738
  30,716
  32,772
  34,909
  37,134
  39,448
Operating income, $m
  289
  425
  586
  772
  985
  1,224
  1,491
  1,786
  2,107
  2,454
  3,015
  3,413
  3,836
  4,284
  4,755
  5,249
  5,766
  6,306
  6,870
  7,456
  8,067
  8,701
  9,361
  10,046
  10,759
  11,499
  12,268
  13,069
  13,901
  14,768
EBITDA, $m
  584
  751
  948
  1,176
  1,437
  1,732
  2,059
  2,420
  2,814
  3,241
  3,699
  4,188
  4,707
  5,256
  5,834
  6,440
  7,075
  7,738
  8,429
  9,148
  9,897
  10,676
  11,485
  12,326
  13,200
  14,108
  15,052
  16,034
  17,056
  18,119
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  24
  43
  65
  91
  121
  156
  195
  239
  287
  339
  396
  457
  522
  591
  664
  740
  821
  905
  994
  1,085
  1,181
  1,281
  1,384
  1,492
  1,603
  1,720
  1,840
  1,966
  2,096
  2,232
Earnings before tax, $m
  265
  382
  521
  681
  863
  1,068
  1,296
  1,547
  1,820
  2,115
  2,619
  2,957
  3,315
  3,693
  4,091
  4,508
  4,945
  5,401
  5,876
  6,371
  6,886
  7,421
  7,977
  8,555
  9,155
  9,779
  10,428
  11,103
  11,805
  12,536
Tax expense, $m
  72
  103
  141
  184
  233
  288
  350
  418
  491
  571
  707
  798
  895
  997
  1,105
  1,217
  1,335
  1,458
  1,587
  1,720
  1,859
  2,004
  2,154
  2,310
  2,472
  2,640
  2,816
  2,998
  3,187
  3,385
Net income, $m
  193
  279
  380
  497
  630
  780
  946
  1,129
  1,329
  1,544
  1,912
  2,158
  2,420
  2,696
  2,986
  3,291
  3,610
  3,943
  4,290
  4,651
  5,027
  5,417
  5,823
  6,245
  6,683
  7,139
  7,613
  8,105
  8,618
  9,151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,734
  4,801
  6,060
  7,521
  9,190
  11,071
  13,166
  15,474
  17,993
  20,719
  23,648
  26,775
  30,095
  33,604
  37,298
  41,175
  45,233
  49,471
  53,890
  58,491
  63,279
  68,257
  73,431
  78,808
  84,395
  90,202
  96,239
  102,517
  109,049
  115,847
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,734
  4,801
  6,060
  7,521
  9,190
  11,071
  13,166
  15,474
  17,993
  20,719
  23,648
  26,775
  30,095
  33,604
  37,298
  41,175
  45,233
  49,471
  53,890
  58,491
  63,279
  68,257
  73,431
  78,808
  84,395
  90,202
  96,239
  102,517
  109,049
  115,847
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
Average production assets, $m
  1,372
  1,764
  2,226
  2,763
  3,376
  4,067
  4,837
  5,685
  6,610
  7,612
  8,688
  9,837
  11,056
  12,345
  13,703
  15,127
  16,618
  18,175
  19,798
  21,489
  23,247
  25,076
  26,977
  28,952
  31,005
  33,138
  35,356
  37,663
  40,062
  42,560
Working capital, $m
  -292
  -375
  -474
  -588
  -718
  -865
  -1,029
  -1,209
  -1,406
  -1,619
  -1,848
  -2,093
  -2,352
  -2,626
  -2,915
  -3,218
  -3,535
  -3,866
  -4,212
  -4,571
  -4,946
  -5,335
  -5,739
  -6,159
  -6,596
  -7,050
  -7,522
  -8,012
  -8,523
  -9,054
Total debt, $m
  790
  1,201
  1,685
  2,248
  2,890
  3,614
  4,421
  5,310
  6,280
  7,329
  8,457
  9,660
  10,939
  12,290
  13,712
  15,204
  16,767
  18,398
  20,100
  21,871
  23,715
  25,631
  27,623
  29,693
  31,844
  34,080
  36,404
  38,821
  41,336
  43,953
Total liabilities, $m
  1,438
  1,849
  2,333
  2,896
  3,538
  4,262
  5,069
  5,958
  6,927
  7,977
  9,105
  10,308
  11,586
  12,937
  14,360
  15,852
  17,415
  19,046
  20,747
  22,519
  24,362
  26,279
  28,271
  30,341
  32,492
  34,728
  37,052
  39,469
  41,984
  44,601
Total equity, $m
  2,297
  2,953
  3,727
  4,625
  5,652
  6,809
  8,097
  9,517
  11,066
  12,742
  14,544
  16,466
  18,508
  20,666
  22,938
  25,323
  27,818
  30,424
  33,142
  35,972
  38,917
  41,978
  45,160
  48,467
  51,903
  55,474
  59,187
  63,048
  67,065
  71,246
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,735
  4,802
  6,060
  7,521
  9,190
  11,071
  13,166
  15,475
  17,993
  20,719
  23,649
  26,774
  30,094
  33,603
  37,298
  41,175
  45,233
  49,470
  53,889
  58,491
  63,279
  68,257
  73,431
  78,808
  84,395
  90,202
  96,239
  102,517
  109,049
  115,847
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.410
  0.450
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  193
  279
  380
  497
  630
  780
  946
  1,129
  1,329
  1,544
  1,912
  2,158
  2,420
  2,696
  2,986
  3,291
  3,610
  3,943
  4,290
  4,651
  5,027
  5,417
  5,823
  6,245
  6,683
  7,139
  7,613
  8,105
  8,618
  9,151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  295
  326
  362
  405
  453
  507
  568
  635
  708
  786
  684
  775
  871
  972
  1,079
  1,191
  1,308
  1,431
  1,559
  1,692
  1,831
  1,975
  2,124
  2,280
  2,441
  2,609
  2,784
  2,966
  3,155
  3,351
Funds from operations, $m
  488
  605
  742
  902
  1,083
  1,287
  1,514
  1,764
  2,036
  2,330
  2,596
  2,933
  3,290
  3,668
  4,065
  4,482
  4,918
  5,374
  5,849
  6,343
  6,857
  7,392
  7,947
  8,525
  9,125
  9,748
  10,397
  11,071
  11,772
  12,502
Change in working capital, $m
  -69
  -83
  -98
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -164
  -180
  -197
  -213
  -229
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -345
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -404
  -420
  -437
  -454
  -472
  -491
  -510
  -531
Cash from operations, $m
  558
  688
  841
  1,016
  1,213
  1,434
  1,678
  1,944
  2,233
  2,543
  2,825
  3,177
  3,550
  3,942
  4,354
  4,785
  5,236
  5,705
  6,194
  6,703
  7,231
  7,781
  8,352
  8,945
  9,561
  10,202
  10,868
  11,561
  12,283
  13,034
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -82
  -108
  -139
  -175
  -218
  -266
  -320
  -381
  -448
  -521
  -599
  -684
  -775
  -871
  -972
  -1,079
  -1,191
  -1,308
  -1,431
  -1,559
  -1,692
  -1,831
  -1,975
  -2,124
  -2,280
  -2,441
  -2,609
  -2,784
  -2,966
  -3,155
New CAPEX, $m
  -326
  -392
  -463
  -537
  -613
  -691
  -770
  -848
  -925
  -1,001
  -1,076
  -1,149
  -1,220
  -1,289
  -1,357
  -1,424
  -1,491
  -1,557
  -1,623
  -1,691
  -1,759
  -1,829
  -1,901
  -1,975
  -2,053
  -2,133
  -2,218
  -2,306
  -2,400
  -2,498
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -408
  -500
  -602
  -712
  -831
  -957
  -1,090
  -1,229
  -1,373
  -1,522
  -1,675
  -1,833
  -1,995
  -2,160
  -2,329
  -2,503
  -2,682
  -2,865
  -3,054
  -3,250
  -3,451
  -3,660
  -3,876
  -4,099
  -4,333
  -4,574
  -4,827
  -5,090
  -5,366
  -5,653
Free cash flow, $m
  150
  188
  239
  304
  383
  477
  588
  715
  860
  1,021
  1,149
  1,344
  1,556
  1,783
  2,025
  2,282
  2,554
  2,840
  3,139
  3,453
  3,780
  4,121
  4,476
  4,845
  5,229
  5,627
  6,041
  6,471
  6,918
  7,382
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  342
  411
  485
  562
  643
  724
  807
  889
  970
  1,050
  1,128
  1,204
  1,278
  1,351
  1,422
  1,493
  1,562
  1,632
  1,701
  1,772
  1,843
  1,917
  1,992
  2,070
  2,151
  2,236
  2,324
  2,417
  2,515
  2,617
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  354
  377
  394
  401
  396
  377
  342
  290
  221
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  696
  788
  879
  963
  1,039
  1,101
  1,149
  1,179
  1,191
  1,182
  1,128
  1,204
  1,278
  1,351
  1,422
  1,493
  1,562
  1,632
  1,701
  1,772
  1,843
  1,917
  1,992
  2,070
  2,151
  2,236
  2,324
  2,417
  2,515
  2,617
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  845
  976
  1,118
  1,267
  1,421
  1,579
  1,737
  1,894
  2,050
  2,203
  2,277
  2,548
  2,834
  3,134
  3,447
  3,775
  4,116
  4,471
  4,841
  5,225
  5,624
  6,038
  6,468
  6,915
  7,380
  7,863
  8,365
  8,888
  9,432
  9,999
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -547
  -656
  -774
  -898
  -1,026
  -1,157
  -1,288
  -1,420
  -1,549
  -1,677
  -1,801
  -1,923
  -2,042
  -2,158
  -2,272
  -2,384
  -2,496
  -2,606
  -2,718
  -2,830
  -2,944
  -3,061
  -3,182
  -3,307
  -3,436
  -3,571
  -3,713
  -3,861
  -4,017
  -4,181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  299
  320
  344
  369
  395
  422
  448
  475
  501
  527
  476
  625
  792
  976
  1,175
  1,390
  1,620
  1,865
  2,123
  2,395
  2,679
  2,976
  3,286
  3,609
  3,944
  4,292
  4,653
  5,027
  5,415
  5,818
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  286
  293
  299
  304
  306
  306
  303
  297
  288
  276
  226
  267
  301
  327
  345
  353
  353
  343
  327
  304
  277
  247
  215
  184
  153
  125
  100
  78
  59
  44
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.3
  91.7
  88.8
  86.6
  84.8
  83.5
  82.5
  81.8
  81.3
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1
  81.1

NICE Ltd., formerly NICE-Systems Ltd., is a global enterprise software provider. The Company's segments include Customer Interactions Solutions, and Financial Crime and Compliance Solutions. The Customer Interactions Solutions segment provides data driven insights that enable businesses to deliver personalized experience to customers. The Financial Crime and Compliance Solutions segment provides real time and cross-channel fraud prevention, anti-money laundering, brokerage compliance and enterprise-wide case management. The Company serves contact centers, back office operations and retail branches, covering various industries, including communications, banking, insurance, healthcare, business processes outsourcing (BPO), government, utilities, travel and entertainment. Its Multi-Channel Recording and Interaction Management enables organizations to capture structured and unstructured customer interaction and transaction data from multiple channels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NICE Ltd (NICE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60
Price to Sales 6.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.4%
Total Debt to Equity 30.8%
Interest Coverage 73
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.4%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Effective Tax Rate 14.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 32.5%

NICE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NICE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1332 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NICE Ltd. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NICE Ltd. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NICE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NICE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NICE Ltd, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NICE Ltd.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NICE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NICE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for NICE Ltd.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NICE Ltd. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NICE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NICE are equal to 78.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NICE Ltd operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NICE is equal to -16.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1749.561 million for NICE Ltd - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.854 million for NICE Ltd is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NICE Ltd at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

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