Intrinsic value of NII Holdings, Inc. - NIHD

Previous Close

$2.04

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.04

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NIHD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  887
  908
  931
  957
  986
  1,018
  1,053
  1,090
  1,131
  1,174
  1,221
  1,270
  1,323
  1,379
  1,439
  1,502
  1,568
  1,639
  1,713
  1,792
  1,875
  1,963
  2,055
  2,152
  2,255
  2,363
  2,476
  2,596
  2,722
  2,854
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,263
  2,315
  2,374
  2,440
  2,514
  2,594
  2,682
  2,777
  2,879
  2,989
  3,087
  3,212
  3,346
  3,487
  3,638
  3,797
  3,966
  4,145
  4,333
  4,532
  4,742
  4,964
  5,197
  5,443
  5,703
  5,975
  6,263
  6,565
  6,883
  7,217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,263
  2,315
  2,374
  2,440
  2,514
  2,594
  2,682
  2,777
  2,879
  2,989
  3,087
  3,212
  3,346
  3,487
  3,638
  3,797
  3,966
  4,145
  4,333
  4,532
  4,742
  4,964
  5,197
  5,443
  5,703
  5,975
  6,263
  6,565
  6,883
  7,217
Operating income, $m
  -1,376
  -1,407
  -1,443
  -1,483
  -1,527
  -1,576
  -1,629
  -1,686
  -1,748
  -1,815
  -1,866
  -1,942
  -2,023
  -2,108
  -2,199
  -2,296
  -2,398
  -2,506
  -2,620
  -2,740
  -2,867
  -3,001
  -3,142
  -3,291
  -3,448
  -3,613
  -3,786
  -3,969
  -4,161
  -4,363
EBITDA, $m
  -1,331
  -1,362
  -1,397
  -1,436
  -1,479
  -1,527
  -1,579
  -1,636
  -1,696
  -1,761
  -1,831
  -1,905
  -1,984
  -2,068
  -2,158
  -2,252
  -2,352
  -2,458
  -2,570
  -2,688
  -2,813
  -2,944
  -3,083
  -3,229
  -3,382
  -3,544
  -3,714
  -3,894
  -4,082
  -4,281
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  110
  89
  93
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
  420
  444
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,486
  -1,496
  -1,536
  -1,580
  -1,630
  -1,684
  -1,743
  -1,807
  -1,876
  -1,951
  -2,011
  -2,095
  -2,186
  -2,282
  -2,383
  -2,491
  -2,606
  -2,726
  -2,854
  -2,989
  -3,131
  -3,281
  -3,439
  -3,606
  -3,781
  -3,966
  -4,161
  -4,365
  -4,581
  -4,807
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1,486
  -1,496
  -1,536
  -1,580
  -1,630
  -1,684
  -1,743
  -1,807
  -1,876
  -1,951
  -2,011
  -2,095
  -2,186
  -2,282
  -2,383
  -2,491
  -2,606
  -2,726
  -2,854
  -2,989
  -3,131
  -3,281
  -3,439
  -3,606
  -3,781
  -3,966
  -4,161
  -4,365
  -4,581
  -4,807

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,136
  1,162
  1,192
  1,226
  1,263
  1,304
  1,348
  1,396
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,626
  1,694
  1,766
  1,842
  1,923
  2,008
  2,098
  2,194
  2,295
  2,401
  2,513
  2,631
  2,756
  2,887
  3,025
  3,171
  3,324
  3,485
  3,654
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,136
  1,162
  1,192
  1,226
  1,263
  1,304
  1,348
  1,396
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,626
  1,694
  1,766
  1,842
  1,923
  2,008
  2,098
  2,194
  2,295
  2,401
  2,513
  2,631
  2,756
  2,887
  3,025
  3,171
  3,324
  3,485
  3,654
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
Average production assets, $m
  237
  242
  249
  256
  263
  272
  281
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  457
  479
  501
  524
  549
  575
  602
  631
  661
  693
  727
  762
Working capital, $m
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Total debt, $m
  529
  553
  579
  610
  643
  680
  720
  763
  810
  860
  913
  970
  1,031
  1,096
  1,164
  1,237
  1,314
  1,395
  1,481
  1,572
  1,667
  1,768
  1,875
  1,987
  2,105
  2,229
  2,360
  2,498
  2,643
  2,795
Total liabilities, $m
  1,023
  1,046
  1,073
  1,103
  1,137
  1,173
  1,213
  1,257
  1,303
  1,353
  1,407
  1,464
  1,525
  1,589
  1,658
  1,730
  1,807
  1,889
  1,974
  2,065
  2,161
  2,262
  2,368
  2,480
  2,599
  2,723
  2,854
  2,991
  3,136
  3,289
Total equity, $m
  114
  116
  119
  123
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,137
  1,162
  1,192
  1,226
  1,263
  1,303
  1,348
  1,397
  1,448
  1,503
  1,563
  1,627
  1,694
  1,766
  1,842
  1,922
  2,008
  2,099
  2,193
  2,294
  2,401
  2,513
  2,631
  2,756
  2,888
  3,026
  3,171
  3,323
  3,484
  3,654
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.660
  4.750
  4.860
  4.970
  5.090
  5.210
  5.340
  5.460
  5.590
  5.720
  5.840
  5.970
  6.090
  6.200
  6.320
  6.430
  6.540
  6.650
  6.750
  6.850
  6.940
  7.040
  7.120
  7.210
  7.290
  7.370
  7.440
  7.520
  7.580
  7.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,486
  -1,496
  -1,536
  -1,580
  -1,630
  -1,684
  -1,743
  -1,807
  -1,876
  -1,951
  -2,011
  -2,095
  -2,186
  -2,282
  -2,383
  -2,491
  -2,606
  -2,726
  -2,854
  -2,989
  -3,131
  -3,281
  -3,439
  -3,606
  -3,781
  -3,966
  -4,161
  -4,365
  -4,581
  -4,807
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  46
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  -1,441
  -1,451
  -1,489
  -1,533
  -1,582
  -1,635
  -1,693
  -1,756
  -1,824
  -1,897
  -1,975
  -2,059
  -2,147
  -2,242
  -2,342
  -2,448
  -2,560
  -2,679
  -2,804
  -2,937
  -3,077
  -3,224
  -3,380
  -3,543
  -3,716
  -3,898
  -4,089
  -4,290
  -4,502
  -4,724
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -1,442
  -1,451
  -1,490
  -1,534
  -1,583
  -1,636
  -1,694
  -1,757
  -1,825
  -1,898
  -1,977
  -2,060
  -2,149
  -2,243
  -2,343
  -2,449
  -2,562
  -2,681
  -2,806
  -2,939
  -3,079
  -3,227
  -3,382
  -3,546
  -3,719
  -3,901
  -4,092
  -4,293
  -4,505
  -4,728
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,472
  -1,482
  -1,523
  -1,568
  -1,618
  -1,673
  -1,733
  -1,798
  -1,868
  -1,943
  -2,023
  -2,109
  -2,200
  -2,297
  -2,399
  -2,508
  -2,623
  -2,745
  -2,874
  -3,010
  -3,153
  -3,304
  -3,464
  -3,632
  -3,809
  -3,995
  -4,191
  -4,397
  -4,614
  -4,842
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -127
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,635
  1,499
  1,539
  1,584
  1,633
  1,688
  1,748
  1,812
  1,882
  1,956
  2,017
  2,102
  2,192
  2,289
  2,391
  2,499
  2,614
  2,735
  2,864
  2,999
  3,142
  3,292
  3,451
  3,618
  3,795
  3,980
  4,175
  4,381
  4,597
  4,824
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,508
  1,523
  1,566
  1,614
  1,666
  1,725
  1,788
  1,855
  1,929
  2,006
  2,071
  2,159
  2,253
  2,354
  2,460
  2,572
  2,691
  2,816
  2,950
  3,090
  3,238
  3,393
  3,557
  3,730
  3,913
  4,104
  4,306
  4,519
  4,742
  4,976
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,635
  -1,499
  -1,539
  -1,584
  -1,633
  -1,688
  -1,748
  -1,812
  -1,882
  -1,956
  -2,017
  -2,102
  -2,192
  -2,289
  -2,391
  -2,499
  -2,614
  -2,735
  -2,864
  -2,999
  -3,142
  -3,292
  -3,451
  -3,618
  -3,795
  -3,980
  -4,175
  -4,381
  -4,597
  -4,824
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,598
  -1,459
  -1,496
  -1,538
  -1,585
  -1,637
  -1,693
  -1,755
  -1,821
  -1,893
  -1,970
  -2,052
  -2,139
  -2,232
  -2,331
  -2,435
  -2,546
  -2,664
  -2,788
  -2,919
  -3,057
  -3,203
  -3,357
  -3,520
  -3,691
  -3,870
  -4,060
  -4,259
  -4,469
  -4,690
Discount rate, %
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,427
  -1,151
  -1,030
  -914
  -802
  -696
  -596
  -504
  -419
  -343
  -276
  -218
  -169
  -128
  -95
  -69
  -49
  -34
  -22
  -15
  -9
  -6
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.5
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

NII Holdings, Inc. provides wireless communication services under the Nextel brand in Brazil. It offers mobile telephone voice services; wireless data services, including text messaging, mobile Internet, and email services; and push-to-talk services, such as Direct Connect, Prip and International Direct Connect services, which allow subscribers to talk to each other instantly. The company also provides other value-added services comprising location-based services, which include the use of global positioning system technologies; and digital media services; and a range of applications available via its content management system, as well as the Android open application market. In addition, the company offers business solutions, such as security, work force management, logistics support, and other applications for its business subscribers to improve their productivity; and voice and data roaming services. The company was formerly known as Nextel International, Inc. and changed its name to NII Holdings, Inc. in December 2001. NII Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is based in Reston, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NII Holdings, Inc. (NIHD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NIHD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NIHD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $870 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NII Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NII Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NIHD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12%, whose default value for NIHD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NII Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NII Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NIHD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 255.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NIHD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.8% for NII Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NII Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NIHD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NIHD are equal to 26.7%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NII Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NIHD is equal to 2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-35.743 million for NII Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 100.875 million for NII Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NII Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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