Intrinsic value of New Jersey Resources - NJR

Previous Close

$38.05

  Intrinsic Value

$32.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

Previous close

$38.05

 
Intrinsic value

$32.31

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NJR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of New Jersey Resources (NJR) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.63
  14.50
  13.55
  12.70
  11.93
  11.23
  10.61
  10.05
  9.54
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.58
  6.43
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  696
  2,598
  2,950
  3,325
  3,721
  4,139
  4,578
  5,038
  5,519
  6,021
  6,543
  7,087
  7,653
  8,241
  8,852
  9,487
  10,147
  10,833
  11,546
  12,288
  13,060
  13,864
  14,701
  15,574
  16,483
  17,433
  18,423
  19,457
  20,538
  21,667
  22,847
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,367
  2,687
  3,029
  3,390
  3,771
  4,171
  4,590
  5,028
  5,485
  5,961
  6,456
  6,972
  7,507
  8,064
  8,642
  9,244
  9,869
  10,518
  11,194
  11,898
  12,630
  13,393
  14,188
  15,016
  15,881
  16,783
  17,726
  18,710
  19,738
  20,813
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,102
  2,367
  2,687
  3,029
  3,390
  3,771
  4,171
  4,590
  5,028
  5,485
  5,961
  6,456
  6,972
  7,507
  8,064
  8,642
  9,244
  9,869
  10,518
  11,194
  11,898
  12,630
  13,393
  14,188
  15,016
  15,881
  16,783
  17,726
  18,710
  19,738
  20,813
Operating income, $m
  167
  231
  263
  296
  331
  368
  407
  448
  491
  536
  582
  631
  681
  733
  788
  844
  903
  964
  1,028
  1,094
  1,162
  1,234
  1,308
  1,386
  1,467
  1,551
  1,640
  1,732
  1,828
  1,928
  2,033
EBITDA, $m
  249
  313
  355
  400
  448
  498
  551
  607
  664
  725
  788
  853
  921
  992
  1,066
  1,142
  1,222
  1,304
  1,390
  1,479
  1,572
  1,669
  1,770
  1,875
  1,985
  2,099
  2,218
  2,343
  2,473
  2,609
  2,751
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  50
  64
  78
  94
  110
  127
  146
  165
  185
  205
  227
  250
  273
  298
  323
  349
  377
  405
  435
  465
  497
  531
  566
  602
  639
  679
  720
  763
  808
  854
Earnings before tax, $m
  137
  181
  199
  218
  238
  258
  280
  303
  326
  351
  377
  404
  431
  460
  490
  521
  554
  587
  622
  659
  697
  736
  778
  821
  865
  912
  961
  1,012
  1,065
  1,121
  1,179
Tax expense, $m
  19
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  318
Net income, $m
  132
  132
  145
  159
  173
  189
  204
  221
  238
  256
  275
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  404
  429
  454
  481
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  701
  739
  777
  818
  861

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,929
  4,495
  5,104
  5,752
  6,438
  7,161
  7,921
  8,717
  9,548
  10,416
  11,321
  12,262
  13,240
  14,257
  15,315
  16,413
  17,555
  18,742
  19,976
  21,259
  22,595
  23,986
  25,434
  26,944
  28,518
  30,160
  31,874
  33,663
  35,532
  37,485
  39,527
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,927
  4,495
  5,104
  5,752
  6,438
  7,161
  7,921
  8,717
  9,548
  10,416
  11,321
  12,262
  13,240
  14,257
  15,315
  16,413
  17,555
  18,742
  19,976
  21,259
  22,595
  23,986
  25,434
  26,944
  28,518
  30,160
  31,874
  33,663
  35,532
  37,485
  39,527
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.177
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
Average production assets, $m
  356
  408
  463
  522
  584
  650
  719
  791
  866
  945
  1,027
  1,113
  1,201
  1,294
  1,390
  1,489
  1,593
  1,701
  1,813
  1,929
  2,050
  2,177
  2,308
  2,445
  2,588
  2,737
  2,892
  3,055
  3,224
  3,402
  3,587
Working capital, $m
  -224
  234
  266
  299
  335
  373
  412
  453
  497
  542
  589
  638
  689
  742
  797
  854
  913
  975
  1,039
  1,106
  1,175
  1,248
  1,323
  1,402
  1,484
  1,569
  1,658
  1,751
  1,848
  1,950
  2,056
Total debt, $m
  1,428
  1,815
  2,232
  2,676
  3,146
  3,641
  4,162
  4,707
  5,277
  5,871
  6,491
  7,135
  7,806
  8,502
  9,226
  9,979
  10,761
  11,574
  12,419
  13,299
  14,214
  15,166
  16,159
  17,193
  18,271
  19,396
  20,570
  21,795
  23,076
  24,414
  25,812
Total liabilities, $m
  2,692
  3,079
  3,496
  3,940
  4,410
  4,905
  5,426
  5,971
  6,541
  7,135
  7,755
  8,399
  9,070
  9,766
  10,490
  11,243
  12,025
  12,838
  13,683
  14,563
  15,478
  16,430
  17,423
  18,457
  19,535
  20,660
  21,834
  23,059
  24,340
  25,678
  27,076
Total equity, $m
  1,237
  1,416
  1,608
  1,812
  2,028
  2,256
  2,495
  2,746
  3,008
  3,281
  3,566
  3,862
  4,171
  4,491
  4,824
  5,170
  5,530
  5,904
  6,292
  6,697
  7,117
  7,555
  8,012
  8,487
  8,983
  9,500
  10,040
  10,604
  11,193
  11,808
  12,451
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,929
  4,495
  5,104
  5,752
  6,438
  7,161
  7,921
  8,717
  9,549
  10,416
  11,321
  12,261
  13,241
  14,257
  15,314
  16,413
  17,555
  18,742
  19,975
  21,260
  22,595
  23,985
  25,435
  26,944
  28,518
  30,160
  31,874
  33,663
  35,533
  37,486
  39,527
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.154
  1.280
  1.390
  1.480
  1.550
  1.610
  1.670
  1.710
  1.750
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.070
  2.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  132
  132
  145
  159
  173
  189
  204
  221
  238
  256
  275
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  404
  429
  454
  481
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  701
  739
  777
  818
  861
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  82
  93
  104
  117
  130
  144
  158
  173
  189
  205
  223
  240
  259
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  386
  410
  435
  462
  489
  518
  547
  578
  611
  645
  680
  717
Funds from operations, $m
  278
  214
  238
  263
  290
  318
  348
  379
  412
  445
  481
  517
  555
  595
  636
  679
  723
  769
  817
  867
  919
  973
  1,029
  1,088
  1,149
  1,213
  1,280
  1,350
  1,422
  1,498
  1,578
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  248
  184
  206
  230
  255
  281
  309
  338
  368
  400
  434
  468
  504
  542
  581
  621
  663
  707
  753
  800
  849
  901
  954
  1,009
  1,067
  1,128
  1,191
  1,256
  1,325
  1,397
  1,472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -71
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -158
  -173
  -189
  -205
  -223
  -240
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -319
  -340
  -363
  -386
  -410
  -435
  -462
  -489
  -518
  -547
  -578
  -611
  -645
  -680
New CAPEX, $m
  -296
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -185
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -391
  -123
  -137
  -152
  -166
  -183
  -199
  -216
  -233
  -252
  -271
  -290
  -312
  -332
  -355
  -378
  -402
  -427
  -452
  -479
  -507
  -536
  -566
  -599
  -632
  -667
  -703
  -740
  -781
  -822
  -865
Free cash flow, $m
  -143
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  193
  209
  226
  244
  262
  281
  301
  321
  342
  364
  387
  411
  436
  461
  488
  516
  545
  575
  606
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  189
  389
  417
  444
  470
  495
  520
  545
  570
  595
  619
  645
  670
  697
  724
  753
  782
  813
  845
  879
  915
  953
  992
  1,034
  1,078
  1,125
  1,174
  1,226
  1,280
  1,338
  1,399
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  47
  47
  45
  43
  39
  35
  30
  24
  17
  10
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  436
  464
  489
  513
  534
  555
  575
  594
  612
  629
  647
  670
  697
  724
  753
  782
  813
  845
  879
  915
  953
  992
  1,034
  1,078
  1,125
  1,174
  1,226
  1,280
  1,338
  1,399
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  496
  533
  567
  600
  633
  665
  697
  728
  760
  792
  824
  863
  906
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,094
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,379
  1,445
  1,514
  1,586
  1,662
  1,741
  1,825
  1,913
  2,005
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -179
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -404
  -421
  -438
  -456
  -476
  -496
  -517
  -540
  -564
  -589
  -615
  -643
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  317
  341
  363
  384
  405
  426
  446
  466
  486
  507
  527
  555
  586
  617
  650
  684
  720
  757
  796
  837
  879
  923
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,122
  1,178
  1,236
  1,297
  1,362
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  292
  287
  276
  262
  245
  226
  206
  185
  164
  143
  123
  105
  89
  74
  60
  48
  37
  29
  21
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.6
  97.4
  96.4
  95.5
  94.8
  94.3
  93.8
  93.5
  93.3
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2

New Jersey Resources Corporation is an energy services holding company. The Company's business is the distribution of natural gas through a regulated utility, which provides other retail and wholesale energy services to customers and investing in clean energy projects and midstream assets. It operates in four business segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services and Midstream. The Natural Gas Distribution segment consists of regulated natural gas services, off-system sales, capacity and storage management operations. The Energy Services segment consists of unregulated wholesale energy operations. The Clean Energy Ventures segment consists of capital investments in clean energy projects. The Midstream segment consists of investments in the midstream natural gas market, such as natural gas transportation and storage facilities. The Home Services and Other operations consist of heating, cooling and water appliance sales and installations, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Jersey Resources (NJR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -68.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 80.6%
Total Debt to Equity 115.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 13.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Payout Ratio 66.7%

NJR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NJR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2269 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Jersey Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of New Jersey Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NJR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for NJR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Jersey Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Jersey Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NJR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NJR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for New Jersey Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Jersey Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NJR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NJR are equal to 15.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Jersey Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NJR is equal to 9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1237 million for New Jersey Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.821 million for New Jersey Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Jersey Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SJI South Jersey I 26.34 15.99  sell
WGL WGL Holdings 83.33 39.41  str.sell
CPK Chesapeake Uti 67.85 100.99  buy
NI NiSource 23.08 23.71  hold
CNP CenterPoint En 27.00 32.62  hold
SR Spire 66.25 57.52  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Jersey Resources beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-18 07:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks That Look Good Short   [Jan-13-18 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ New Jersey Resources reports 4Q loss   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Jersey Resources Announces Promotions   [02:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: New Jersey Resources   [Oct-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Spire   [Oct-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ New Jersey Resources beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Are ETF Inflows Affecting Small Cap Stocks?   [Jun-08-17 03:29PM  Barrons.com]
▶ New Jersey Resources beats 2Q profit forecasts   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Jersey Resources misses 1Q profit forecasts   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of NJR
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