Intrinsic value of Nektar Therapeutics - NKTR

Previous Close

$36.51

  Intrinsic Value

$107.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+194%

Previous close

$36.51

 
Intrinsic value

$107.39

 
Up/down potential

+194%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NKTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  492
  761
  1,138
  1,651
  2,329
  3,201
  4,297
  5,643
  7,261
  9,171
  11,388
  13,923
  16,782
  19,967
  23,478
  27,310
  31,459
  35,917
  40,678
  45,735
  51,079
  56,707
  62,614
  68,797
  75,255
  81,989
  89,002
  96,299
  103,886
  111,771
Variable operating expenses, $m
  302
  463
  688
  995
  1,401
  1,923
  2,578
  3,383
  4,350
  5,493
  6,812
  8,328
  10,038
  11,943
  14,043
  16,335
  18,817
  21,484
  24,331
  27,356
  30,553
  33,919
  37,452
  41,150
  45,013
  49,041
  53,236
  57,600
  62,138
  66,855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  183
  187
  191
  195
  200
  204
  208
  213
  218
  223
  227
  232
  238
  243
  248
  254
  259
  265
  271
  277
  283
  289
  295
  302
  308
  315
  322
  329
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  485
  650
  879
  1,190
  1,601
  2,127
  2,786
  3,596
  4,568
  5,716
  7,039
  8,560
  10,276
  12,186
  14,291
  16,589
  19,076
  21,749
  24,602
  27,633
  30,836
  34,208
  37,747
  41,452
  45,321
  49,356
  53,558
  57,929
  62,474
  67,199
Operating income, $m
  7
  111
  258
  460
  729
  1,075
  1,511
  2,047
  2,692
  3,455
  4,349
  5,363
  6,506
  7,781
  9,187
  10,721
  12,383
  14,169
  16,076
  18,102
  20,244
  22,500
  24,867
  27,345
  29,934
  32,633
  35,444
  38,370
  41,411
  44,573
EBITDA, $m
  32
  145
  305
  525
  816
  1,192
  1,666
  2,248
  2,948
  3,777
  4,739
  5,839
  7,081
  8,465
  9,990
  11,656
  13,460
  15,398
  17,468
  19,667
  21,992
  24,440
  27,010
  29,699
  32,509
  35,439
  38,490
  41,665
  44,966
  48,398
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  22
  19
  38
  65
  101
  149
  211
  288
  383
  498
  633
  790
  969
  1,171
  1,397
  1,645
  1,916
  2,210
  2,525
  2,862
  3,220
  3,598
  3,996
  4,414
  4,851
  5,308
  5,784
  6,280
  6,797
  7,333
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  92
  220
  396
  628
  926
  1,300
  1,759
  2,309
  2,957
  3,716
  4,573
  5,537
  6,610
  7,790
  9,076
  10,467
  11,959
  13,551
  15,240
  17,025
  18,902
  20,871
  22,931
  25,083
  27,325
  29,660
  32,089
  34,615
  37,239
Tax expense, $m
  0
  25
  60
  107
  169
  250
  351
  475
  623
  798
  1,003
  1,235
  1,495
  1,785
  2,103
  2,451
  2,826
  3,229
  3,659
  4,115
  4,597
  5,104
  5,635
  6,191
  6,772
  7,378
  8,008
  8,664
  9,346
  10,055
Net income, $m
  -15
  67
  161
  289
  458
  676
  949
  1,284
  1,686
  2,159
  2,713
  3,338
  4,042
  4,825
  5,687
  6,626
  7,641
  8,730
  9,892
  11,126
  12,428
  13,798
  15,236
  16,740
  18,310
  19,947
  21,652
  23,425
  25,269
  27,185

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  430
  664
  994
  1,442
  2,034
  2,796
  3,753
  4,928
  6,341
  8,009
  9,946
  12,160
  14,657
  17,438
  20,504
  23,852
  27,475
  31,369
  35,527
  39,943
  44,611
  49,526
  54,685
  60,085
  65,725
  71,606
  77,731
  84,104
  90,730
  97,617
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  430
  664
  994
  1,442
  2,034
  2,796
  3,753
  4,928
  6,341
  8,009
  9,946
  12,160
  14,657
  17,438
  20,504
  23,852
  27,475
  31,369
  35,527
  39,943
  44,611
  49,526
  54,685
  60,085
  65,725
  71,606
  77,731
  84,104
  90,730
  97,617
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.144
  1.146
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
Average production assets, $m
  152
  234
  350
  508
  717
  986
  1,324
  1,738
  2,236
  2,825
  3,507
  4,288
  5,169
  6,150
  7,231
  8,411
  9,689
  11,063
  12,529
  14,086
  15,732
  17,466
  19,285
  21,189
  23,179
  25,253
  27,413
  29,660
  31,997
  34,426
Working capital, $m
  -41
  -63
  -94
  -137
  -193
  -266
  -357
  -468
  -603
  -761
  -945
  -1,156
  -1,393
  -1,657
  -1,949
  -2,267
  -2,611
  -2,981
  -3,376
  -3,796
  -4,240
  -4,707
  -5,197
  -5,710
  -6,246
  -6,805
  -7,387
  -7,993
  -8,623
  -9,277
Total debt, $m
  211
  422
  718
  1,122
  1,655
  2,341
  3,202
  4,259
  5,531
  7,033
  8,775
  10,768
  13,015
  15,519
  18,278
  21,291
  24,552
  28,056
  31,798
  35,773
  39,974
  44,398
  49,040
  53,900
  58,977
  64,270
  69,782
  75,518
  81,481
  87,679
Total liabilities, $m
  387
  598
  894
  1,297
  1,830
  2,516
  3,378
  4,435
  5,707
  7,208
  8,951
  10,944
  13,191
  15,695
  18,454
  21,466
  24,728
  28,232
  31,974
  35,949
  40,150
  44,573
  49,216
  54,076
  59,152
  64,446
  69,958
  75,693
  81,657
  87,855
Total equity, $m
  43
  66
  99
  144
  203
  280
  375
  493
  634
  801
  995
  1,216
  1,466
  1,744
  2,050
  2,385
  2,748
  3,137
  3,553
  3,994
  4,461
  4,953
  5,468
  6,008
  6,572
  7,161
  7,773
  8,410
  9,073
  9,762
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  430
  664
  993
  1,441
  2,033
  2,796
  3,753
  4,928
  6,341
  8,009
  9,946
  12,160
  14,657
  17,439
  20,504
  23,851
  27,476
  31,369
  35,527
  39,943
  44,611
  49,526
  54,684
  60,084
  65,724
  71,607
  77,731
  84,103
  90,730
  97,617
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.910
  6.350
  7.230
  7.780
  8.140
  8.370
  8.530
  8.640
  8.720
  8.780
  8.820
  8.860
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  67
  161
  289
  458
  676
  949
  1,284
  1,686
  2,159
  2,713
  3,338
  4,042
  4,825
  5,687
  6,626
  7,641
  8,730
  9,892
  11,126
  12,428
  13,798
  15,236
  16,740
  18,310
  19,947
  21,652
  23,425
  25,269
  27,185
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  34
  47
  64
  87
  117
  155
  201
  256
  321
  390
  476
  574
  683
  803
  935
  1,077
  1,229
  1,392
  1,565
  1,748
  1,941
  2,143
  2,354
  2,575
  2,806
  3,046
  3,296
  3,555
  3,825
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  101
  207
  353
  546
  793
  1,104
  1,485
  1,942
  2,480
  3,102
  3,815
  4,617
  5,508
  6,490
  7,560
  8,717
  9,959
  11,285
  12,691
  14,176
  15,739
  17,379
  19,094
  20,886
  22,753
  24,698
  26,721
  28,824
  31,010
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -56
  -72
  -91
  -112
  -134
  -159
  -184
  -210
  -237
  -264
  -291
  -318
  -344
  -370
  -395
  -420
  -444
  -467
  -490
  -513
  -536
  -559
  -582
  -606
  -630
  -654
Cash from operations, $m
  25
  123
  239
  396
  602
  866
  1,195
  1,596
  2,076
  2,639
  3,286
  4,025
  4,854
  5,773
  6,782
  7,878
  9,062
  10,330
  11,680
  13,110
  14,620
  16,206
  17,869
  19,608
  21,422
  23,312
  25,280
  27,326
  29,454
  31,664
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -17
  -26
  -39
  -56
  -80
  -110
  -147
  -193
  -248
  -314
  -390
  -476
  -574
  -683
  -803
  -935
  -1,077
  -1,229
  -1,392
  -1,565
  -1,748
  -1,941
  -2,143
  -2,354
  -2,575
  -2,806
  -3,046
  -3,296
  -3,555
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -83
  -116
  -158
  -209
  -269
  -338
  -414
  -498
  -588
  -683
  -781
  -881
  -981
  -1,081
  -1,180
  -1,278
  -1,373
  -1,466
  -1,557
  -1,646
  -1,733
  -1,819
  -1,904
  -1,989
  -2,074
  -2,160
  -2,247
  -2,337
  -2,429
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -68
  -100
  -142
  -197
  -265
  -349
  -448
  -561
  -691
  -836
  -997
  -1,171
  -1,357
  -1,555
  -1,764
  -1,983
  -2,213
  -2,450
  -2,695
  -2,949
  -3,211
  -3,481
  -3,760
  -4,047
  -4,343
  -4,649
  -4,966
  -5,293
  -5,633
  -5,984
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  24
  97
  199
  336
  517
  748
  1,035
  1,385
  1,802
  2,290
  2,855
  3,497
  4,218
  5,017
  5,895
  6,849
  7,880
  8,984
  10,161
  11,408
  12,725
  14,109
  15,560
  17,078
  18,663
  20,314
  22,033
  23,821
  25,680
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -34
  211
  296
  403
  533
  686
  861
  1,057
  1,272
  1,501
  1,743
  1,993
  2,247
  2,504
  2,759
  3,012
  3,261
  3,504
  3,742
  3,974
  4,201
  4,424
  4,643
  4,860
  5,076
  5,293
  5,512
  5,735
  5,963
  6,198
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  210
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  176
  211
  296
  403
  533
  686
  861
  1,057
  1,272
  1,501
  1,743
  1,993
  2,247
  2,504
  2,759
  3,012
  3,261
  3,504
  3,742
  3,974
  4,201
  4,424
  4,643
  4,860
  5,076
  5,293
  5,512
  5,735
  5,963
  6,198
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  133
  235
  393
  602
  869
  1,203
  1,609
  2,092
  2,656
  3,304
  4,033
  4,847
  5,744
  6,721
  7,776
  8,907
  10,110
  11,384
  12,726
  14,135
  15,609
  17,148
  18,752
  20,420
  22,155
  23,956
  25,826
  27,768
  29,785
  31,879
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -210
  -23
  -33
  -45
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -117
  -141
  -167
  -194
  -221
  -250
  -278
  -307
  -335
  -362
  -389
  -416
  -442
  -467
  -492
  -516
  -540
  -564
  -588
  -612
  -637
  -663
  -689
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  240
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  164
  211
  360
  557
  810
  1,127
  1,513
  1,975
  2,515
  3,137
  3,839
  4,626
  5,494
  6,443
  7,470
  8,572
  9,748
  10,995
  12,311
  13,694
  15,143
  16,657
  18,236
  19,880
  21,590
  23,368
  25,214
  27,131
  29,122
  31,190
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  157
  193
  313
  459
  628
  818
  1,022
  1,234
  1,445
  1,644
  1,823
  1,974
  2,089
  2,163
  2,193
  2,178
  2,121
  2,025
  1,895
  1,740
  1,566
  1,382
  1,195
  1,013
  840
  682
  541
  420
  318
  235
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Nektar Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops medicines in areas of high unmet medical need. The Company's research and development pipeline of new investigational drugs includes treatments for cancer, auto-immune disease and chronic pain. It leverages its chemistry platform to discover and design new drug candidates. These drug candidates utilize its polymer conjugate technology platforms, which are designed to enable the development of new molecular entities that target known mechanisms of action. Its programs include Immuno-oncology (I-O), Immunology, Pain-NKTR-181 and Oncology-ONZEALD. It is developing medicines designed to directly or indirectly modulate the activity of key immune cells, such as cytotoxic T cells and Natural Killer (NK) cells, to increase their numbers and improve their function to recognize and attack cancer cells.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -36.3
Price to Sales 33.9
Price to Book 63.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -47.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -45.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 130
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 279.5%
Total Debt to Equity 283%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Return On Total Capital -52.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.8%
Return On Equity -327.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -171.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.2%
EBITDA Margin -70.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.5%
Operating Margin -68.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -92.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.6%
Net Profit Margin -93.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

NKTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NKTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $307.711 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nektar Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Nektar Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NKTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NKTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nektar Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nektar Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NKTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $179 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NKTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9% for Nektar Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nektar Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NKTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NKTR are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nektar Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NKTR is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $87.828 million for Nektar Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 171.402 million for Nektar Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nektar Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.3 billion.

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