Intrinsic value of Nektar Therapeutics - NKTR

Previous Close

$48.73

  Intrinsic Value

$104.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+115%

Previous close

$48.73

 
Intrinsic value

$104.62

 
Up/down potential

+115%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NKTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  493
  761
  1,139
  1,652
  2,331
  3,204
  4,301
  5,648
  7,267
  9,179
  11,399
  13,936
  16,797
  19,986
  23,500
  27,336
  31,488
  35,951
  40,717
  45,777
  51,127
  56,761
  62,673
  68,862
  75,326
  82,066
  89,086
  96,389
  103,983
  111,876
Variable operating expenses, $m
  304
  466
  693
  1,002
  1,411
  1,937
  2,597
  3,408
  4,383
  5,534
  6,862
  8,389
  10,112
  12,031
  14,147
  16,456
  18,956
  21,643
  24,511
  27,558
  30,779
  34,170
  37,729
  41,455
  45,346
  49,404
  53,630
  58,026
  62,598
  67,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  182
  186
  190
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  247
  252
  258
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  294
  300
  307
  313
  320
  327
  335
  342
Total operating expenses, $m
  486
  652
  883
  1,196
  1,609
  2,140
  2,804
  3,620
  4,600
  5,755
  7,088
  8,620
  10,348
  12,272
  14,394
  16,708
  19,214
  21,906
  24,780
  27,833
  31,060
  34,457
  38,023
  41,755
  45,653
  49,717
  53,950
  58,353
  62,933
  67,691
Operating income, $m
  7
  109
  255
  456
  722
  1,065
  1,497
  2,028
  2,668
  3,424
  4,311
  5,315
  6,449
  7,713
  9,106
  10,627
  12,275
  14,045
  15,936
  17,944
  20,068
  22,303
  24,650
  27,107
  29,673
  32,349
  35,136
  38,036
  41,051
  44,185
EBITDA, $m
  36
  150
  312
  535
  830
  1,211
  1,690
  2,280
  2,990
  3,829
  4,803
  5,917
  7,175
  8,576
  10,121
  11,808
  13,635
  15,598
  17,695
  19,922
  22,276
  24,755
  27,358
  30,082
  32,927
  35,894
  38,984
  42,200
  45,543
  49,018
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  22
  19
  38
  65
  101
  149
  211
  289
  384
  499
  634
  791
  971
  1,174
  1,399
  1,648
  1,920
  2,214
  2,530
  2,867
  3,225
  3,604
  4,003
  4,422
  4,860
  5,318
  5,795
  6,292
  6,809
  7,347
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  90
  217
  391
  620
  916
  1,286
  1,740
  2,284
  2,926
  3,676
  4,524
  5,478
  6,539
  7,707
  8,979
  10,355
  11,831
  13,406
  15,077
  16,842
  18,699
  20,647
  22,685
  24,813
  27,031
  29,341
  31,744
  34,242
  36,838
Tax expense, $m
  0
  24
  59
  106
  167
  247
  347
  470
  617
  790
  993
  1,222
  1,479
  1,766
  2,081
  2,424
  2,796
  3,195
  3,620
  4,071
  4,547
  5,049
  5,575
  6,125
  6,700
  7,298
  7,922
  8,571
  9,245
  9,946
Net income, $m
  -16
  66
  159
  285
  453
  668
  939
  1,270
  1,667
  2,136
  2,684
  3,303
  3,999
  4,774
  5,626
  6,555
  7,559
  8,637
  9,787
  11,006
  12,295
  13,650
  15,072
  16,560
  18,114
  19,733
  21,419
  23,173
  24,997
  26,892

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  431
  666
  995
  1,444
  2,037
  2,801
  3,760
  4,937
  6,353
  8,024
  9,964
  12,182
  14,683
  17,470
  20,542
  23,895
  27,525
  31,426
  35,591
  40,015
  44,692
  49,616
  54,784
  60,194
  65,844
  71,736
  77,872
  84,256
  90,894
  97,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  431
  666
  995
  1,444
  2,037
  2,801
  3,760
  4,937
  6,353
  8,024
  9,964
  12,182
  14,683
  17,470
  20,542
  23,895
  27,525
  31,426
  35,591
  40,015
  44,692
  49,616
  54,784
  60,194
  65,844
  71,736
  77,872
  84,256
  90,894
  97,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.144
  1.143
  1.145
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
Average production assets, $m
  213
  329
  492
  714
  1,007
  1,384
  1,858
  2,440
  3,140
  3,965
  4,924
  6,020
  7,257
  8,634
  10,152
  11,809
  13,603
  15,531
  17,590
  19,776
  22,087
  24,521
  27,075
  29,748
  32,541
  35,453
  38,485
  41,640
  44,921
  48,331
Working capital, $m
  9
  14
  22
  31
  44
  61
  82
  107
  138
  174
  217
  265
  319
  380
  446
  519
  598
  683
  774
  870
  971
  1,078
  1,191
  1,308
  1,431
  1,559
  1,693
  1,831
  1,976
  2,126
Total debt, $m
  212
  423
  720
  1,124
  1,658
  2,345
  3,208
  4,268
  5,542
  7,046
  8,792
  10,788
  13,039
  15,547
  18,312
  21,330
  24,597
  28,108
  31,857
  35,838
  40,047
  44,479
  49,130
  53,999
  59,084
  64,387
  69,909
  75,655
  81,629
  87,839
Total liabilities, $m
  388
  599
  896
  1,300
  1,834
  2,521
  3,384
  4,443
  5,717
  7,222
  8,967
  10,964
  13,215
  15,723
  18,487
  21,505
  24,772
  28,283
  32,032
  36,014
  40,223
  44,654
  49,306
  54,174
  59,260
  64,563
  70,085
  75,831
  81,805
  88,014
Total equity, $m
  43
  67
  100
  144
  204
  280
  376
  494
  635
  802
  996
  1,218
  1,468
  1,747
  2,054
  2,389
  2,752
  3,143
  3,559
  4,002
  4,469
  4,962
  5,478
  6,019
  6,584
  7,174
  7,787
  8,426
  9,089
  9,779
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  431
  666
  996
  1,444
  2,038
  2,801
  3,760
  4,937
  6,352
  8,024
  9,963
  12,182
  14,683
  17,470
  20,541
  23,894
  27,524
  31,426
  35,591
  40,016
  44,692
  49,616
  54,784
  60,193
  65,844
  71,737
  77,872
  84,257
  90,894
  97,793
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.920
  6.360
  7.240
  7.780
  8.140
  8.370
  8.530
  8.640
  8.720
  8.780
  8.820
  8.860
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  66
  159
  285
  453
  668
  939
  1,270
  1,667
  2,136
  2,684
  3,303
  3,999
  4,774
  5,626
  6,555
  7,559
  8,637
  9,787
  11,006
  12,295
  13,650
  15,072
  16,560
  18,114
  19,733
  21,419
  23,173
  24,997
  26,892
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  41
  57
  79
  108
  146
  194
  252
  322
  404
  492
  602
  726
  863
  1,015
  1,181
  1,360
  1,553
  1,759
  1,978
  2,209
  2,452
  2,707
  2,975
  3,254
  3,545
  3,849
  4,164
  4,492
  4,833
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  107
  216
  364
  561
  815
  1,132
  1,522
  1,989
  2,540
  3,176
  3,905
  4,725
  5,637
  6,641
  7,736
  8,919
  10,190
  11,546
  12,984
  14,503
  16,102
  17,780
  19,535
  21,368
  23,278
  25,267
  27,337
  29,489
  31,725
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  96
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
Cash from operations, $m
  10
  101
  208
  355
  548
  798
  1,111
  1,496
  1,958
  2,504
  3,134
  3,856
  4,670
  5,577
  6,574
  7,663
  8,841
  10,105
  11,455
  12,888
  14,402
  15,995
  17,668
  19,417
  21,245
  23,150
  25,134
  27,198
  29,344
  31,575
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -21
  -33
  -49
  -71
  -101
  -138
  -186
  -244
  -314
  -397
  -492
  -602
  -726
  -863
  -1,015
  -1,181
  -1,360
  -1,553
  -1,759
  -1,978
  -2,209
  -2,452
  -2,707
  -2,975
  -3,254
  -3,545
  -3,849
  -4,164
  -4,492
New CAPEX, $m
  -80
  -116
  -163
  -222
  -293
  -377
  -474
  -582
  -700
  -826
  -959
  -1,096
  -1,236
  -1,377
  -1,518
  -1,657
  -1,794
  -1,928
  -2,059
  -2,186
  -2,311
  -2,434
  -2,554
  -2,674
  -2,793
  -2,912
  -3,032
  -3,155
  -3,281
  -3,410
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -93
  -137
  -196
  -271
  -364
  -478
  -612
  -768
  -944
  -1,140
  -1,356
  -1,588
  -1,838
  -2,103
  -2,381
  -2,672
  -2,975
  -3,288
  -3,612
  -3,945
  -4,289
  -4,643
  -5,006
  -5,381
  -5,768
  -6,166
  -6,577
  -7,004
  -7,445
  -7,902
Free cash flow, $m
  -83
  -36
  13
  84
  184
  320
  499
  728
  1,015
  1,364
  1,779
  2,268
  2,832
  3,474
  4,193
  4,991
  5,866
  6,817
  7,843
  8,943
  10,113
  11,353
  12,661
  14,036
  15,477
  16,984
  18,556
  20,195
  21,900
  23,673
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -33
  211
  297
  404
  534
  687
  863
  1,059
  1,274
  1,504
  1,746
  1,996
  2,251
  2,508
  2,764
  3,018
  3,267
  3,511
  3,749
  3,982
  4,209
  4,432
  4,651
  4,869
  5,085
  5,303
  5,522
  5,746
  5,974
  6,209
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  178
  211
  297
  404
  534
  687
  863
  1,059
  1,274
  1,504
  1,746
  1,996
  2,251
  2,508
  2,764
  3,018
  3,267
  3,511
  3,749
  3,982
  4,209
  4,432
  4,651
  4,869
  5,085
  5,303
  5,522
  5,746
  5,974
  6,209
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  175
  309
  488
  718
  1,007
  1,362
  1,788
  2,289
  2,868
  3,525
  4,264
  5,083
  5,982
  6,957
  8,009
  9,133
  10,328
  11,592
  12,924
  14,322
  15,785
  17,313
  18,905
  20,563
  22,287
  24,079
  25,940
  27,874
  29,883
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -211
  -23
  -33
  -45
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -118
  -142
  -167
  -194
  -222
  -250
  -279
  -307
  -335
  -363
  -390
  -417
  -442
  -468
  -492
  -517
  -541
  -565
  -589
  -614
  -638
  -664
  -690
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  240
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  37
  59
  91
  135
  197
  277
  381
  512
  672
  865
  1,092
  1,356
  1,658
  1,999
  2,378
  2,796
  3,253
  3,747
  4,278
  4,845
  5,448
  6,084
  6,755
  7,458
  8,195
  8,964
  9,766
  10,601
  11,470
  12,374
Cash available for distribution, $m
  124
  152
  276
  443
  658
  931
  1,266
  1,670
  2,147
  2,701
  3,331
  4,042
  4,833
  5,703
  6,650
  7,673
  8,770
  9,938
  11,176
  12,482
  13,854
  15,292
  16,796
  18,364
  19,998
  21,698
  23,465
  25,302
  27,210
  29,193
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  118
  139
  241
  365
  510
  675
  855
  1,044
  1,233
  1,416
  1,582
  1,725
  1,838
  1,915
  1,952
  1,950
  1,908
  1,830
  1,721
  1,586
  1,433
  1,269
  1,101
  935
  778
  633
  504
  391
  297
  220
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Nektar Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops medicines in areas of high unmet medical need. The Company's research and development pipeline of new investigational drugs includes treatments for cancer, auto-immune disease and chronic pain. It leverages its chemistry platform to discover and design new drug candidates. These drug candidates utilize its polymer conjugate technology platforms, which are designed to enable the development of new molecular entities that target known mechanisms of action. Its programs include Immuno-oncology (I-O), Immunology, Pain-NKTR-181 and Oncology-ONZEALD. It is developing medicines designed to directly or indirectly modulate the activity of key immune cells, such as cytotoxic T cells and Natural Killer (NK) cells, to increase their numbers and improve their function to recognize and attack cancer cells.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -48.5
Price to Sales 45.2
Price to Book 84.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -63.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -60.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 130
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 279.5%
Total Debt to Equity 283%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Return On Total Capital -52.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.8%
Return On Equity -327.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -171.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.2%
EBITDA Margin -70.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.5%
Operating Margin -68.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -92.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.6%
Net Profit Margin -93.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

NKTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NKTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $308 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nektar Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Nektar Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NKTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NKTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nektar Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nektar Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NKTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $178 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NKTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9% for Nektar Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nektar Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NKTR stock is equal to 11.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NKTR are equal to 43.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nektar Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NKTR is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $88 million for Nektar Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156 million for Nektar Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nektar Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.6 billion.

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