Intrinsic value of NL Industries - NL

Previous Close

$4.95

  Intrinsic Value

$5.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+11%

Previous close

$4.95

 
Intrinsic value

$5.47

 
Up/down potential

+11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
  340
  359
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  489
  515
  541
  569
  599
  630
Variable operating expenses, $m
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  243
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
Total operating expenses, $m
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  144
  150
  157
  162
  169
  173
  181
  188
  196
  203
  211
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  341
  356
  370
Operating income, $m
  4
  8
  12
  17
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  213
  228
  243
  259
EBITDA, $m
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  162
  173
  186
  199
  213
  227
  243
  259
  276
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  7
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  183
  195
  209
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
Net income, $m
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  506
  544
  584
  626
  669
  714
  761
  809
  860
  912
  967
  1,024
  1,084
  1,146
  1,211
  1,279
  1,350
  1,424
  1,501
  1,582
  1,667
  1,756
  1,848
  1,945
  2,047
  2,154
  2,266
  2,383
  2,505
  2,634
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  506
  544
  584
  626
  669
  714
  761
  809
  860
  912
  967
  1,024
  1,084
  1,146
  1,211
  1,279
  1,350
  1,424
  1,501
  1,582
  1,667
  1,756
  1,848
  1,945
  2,047
  2,154
  2,266
  2,383
  2,505
  2,634
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.239
  0.239
  0.240
  0.240
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.238
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
Average production assets, $m
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  193
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
Working capital, $m
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
Total debt, $m
  17
  35
  54
  73
  93
  113
  135
  157
  181
  205
  230
  256
  284
  313
  343
  374
  406
  441
  476
  514
  553
  593
  636
  681
  728
  777
  829
  883
  939
  999
Total liabilities, $m
  233
  251
  269
  289
  308
  329
  351
  373
  396
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  590
  622
  656
  692
  729
  768
  809
  852
  897
  944
  993
  1,044
  1,098
  1,155
  1,214
Total equity, $m
  273
  293
  315
  337
  361
  385
  410
  436
  463
  492
  521
  552
  584
  618
  653
  689
  728
  767
  809
  853
  898
  946
  996
  1,049
  1,103
  1,161
  1,221
  1,284
  1,350
  1,420
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  506
  544
  584
  626
  669
  714
  761
  809
  859
  913
  967
  1,024
  1,084
  1,146
  1,211
  1,279
  1,350
  1,423
  1,501
  1,582
  1,666
  1,755
  1,848
  1,946
  2,047
  2,154
  2,265
  2,382
  2,505
  2,634
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.120
  0.170
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.330
  0.360
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  169
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  129
  138
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  34
  32
  31
  30
  29
  28
  26
  25
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  98
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  128
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  94
  15
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.7
  85.0
  79.7
  75.7
  72.6
  70.4
  68.8
  67.8
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4
  67.4

NL Industries, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates in the component products industry through its subsidiary, CompX International Inc. (CompX). The Company operates in the chemicals industry through its non-controlling interest in Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (Kronos). The Company, through Compx, manufactures engineered components that are sold to a range of industries, including recreational transportation (including boats), postal, office and institutional furniture, cabinetry, tool storage, healthcare, gas stations and vending equipment. Kronos is a global producer and marketer of value-added titanium dioxide pigments (TiO2), a base industrial product used in imparting whiteness, brightness and opacity to a range of customer applications and end use markets, including coatings, plastics, paper, inks, food, cosmetics, and other industrial and consumer products. Kronos has production facilities in Europe and North America.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NL Industries (NL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.1
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 16.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin -0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Net Profit Margin 13.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate -21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

NL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $112.035 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NL Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NL Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NL Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NL Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $66 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for NL Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NL Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NL are equal to 41.6%.

Life of production assets of 16.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NL Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NL is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $335.322 million for NL Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.728 million for NL Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NL Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CIX CompX Internat 13.45 7.60  sell
VHI Valhi 2.10 29.73  str.buy
EML Eastern 27.95 29.02  hold
NNBR NN 7.18 32.62  str.buy
ROLL RBC Bearings 154.46 63.17  str.sell
TKR Timken 40.12 151.54  str.buy
KRO Kronos Worldwi 12.86 64.08  str.buy
SYNL Synalloy 16.89 18.91  hold
ALLE Allegion 88.87 101.14  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ NL Industries: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-08-18 05:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2018 RESULTS   [Nov-07-18 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Does NL Industries Incs (NYSE:NL) PE Ratio Warrant A Buy?   [Oct-18-18 04:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bad Investment? Reasons to Stand Your Ground   [Oct-01-18 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ NL Industries: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why I'm Interested In Directly Owning NL Industries   [Jul-06-18 10:05AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ NL Industries: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2018 RESULTS   [May-08-18 04:26PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NL Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-12-18 05:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ This Wild Roller Coaster Stock Is Not for Widows or Orphans   [Dec-07-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ NL Industries posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [04:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ When Should You Buy NL Industries Inc (NL)?   [Oct-28-17 08:41PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ NL Industries posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 08:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [06:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NL Industries, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NL Industries posts 1Q profit   [05:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [May-08-17 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Court rules New Jersey not liable in $80M Superfund cleanup   [Mar-27-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ NL Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-10-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ NL REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:24PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NL REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:26PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NL Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [04:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NL REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [05:04PM  GlobeNewswire]

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