Intrinsic value of Nautilus - NLS

Previous Close

$14.75

  Intrinsic Value

$19.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

Previous close

$14.75

 
Intrinsic value

$19.12

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  414
  424
  435
  447
  460
  475
  491
  509
  528
  548
  570
  593
  617
  644
  671
  701
  732
  765
  800
  836
  875
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,156
  1,211
  1,270
  1,332
Variable operating expenses, $m
  360
  368
  377
  387
  398
  411
  424
  439
  455
  472
  478
  498
  518
  540
  564
  588
  614
  642
  671
  702
  735
  769
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  360
  368
  377
  387
  398
  411
  424
  439
  455
  472
  478
  498
  518
  540
  564
  588
  614
  642
  671
  702
  735
  769
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
Operating income, $m
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
EBITDA, $m
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  195
Tax expense, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Net income, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  331
  339
  347
  357
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  494
  514
  537
  560
  585
  611
  639
  669
  700
  732
  767
  803
  841
  881
  924
  968
  1,015
  1,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  331
  339
  347
  357
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  494
  514
  537
  560
  585
  611
  639
  669
  700
  732
  767
  803
  841
  881
  924
  968
  1,015
  1,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.251
  1.251
  1.254
  1.252
  1.250
  1.250
  1.249
  1.251
  1.251
  1.251
  1.253
  1.251
  1.249
  1.253
  1.250
  1.252
  1.251
  1.252
  1.252
  1.250
  1.250
  1.251
  1.250
  1.250
  1.251
  1.252
  1.251
  1.251
  1.251
  1.251
Average production assets, $m
  145
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  281
  294
  307
  322
  337
  353
  369
  387
  406
  425
  446
  467
Working capital, $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Total debt, $m
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  216
  230
  246
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  357
  379
Total liabilities, $m
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  313
  328
  343
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
Total equity, $m
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  251
  262
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  535
  560
  588
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  331
  339
  348
  357
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  639
  669
  699
  732
  766
  803
  841
  882
  924
  969
  1,015
  1,065
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
Cash available for distribution, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  44
  43
  42
  40
  39
  37
  35
  33
  32
  30
  26
  24
  22
  20
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nautilus, Inc. is a consumer fitness products company. The Company operates through two segments: Direct and Retail. Its principal business activities include designing, developing, sourcing and marketing of cardio and strength fitness products and related accessories for consumer use, primarily in the United States and Canada, but also in international markets outside North America. The Direct business offers products directly to consumers through television advertising, catalogs and the Internet. In its Direct business, the Company markets and sells its products, principally Bowflex cardio and strength products, directly to consumers. The Retail business offers its products through a network of independent retail companies and specialty retailers with stores and Websites located in the United States and internationally. In its Retail business, the Company markets and sells a line of consumer fitness equipment under the Nautilus, Octane Fitness, Schwinn, Universal and Bowflex brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nautilus (NLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 29.8%
Total Debt to Equity 39.8%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Total Capital 15.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Equity 23.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Operating Margin 13.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $406 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nautilus. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Nautilus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nautilus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nautilus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Nautilus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nautilus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NLS stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NLS are equal to 35.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nautilus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NLS is equal to -3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $179 million for Nautilus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31 million for Nautilus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nautilus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Inside the rise, fall and rise again of Nautilus Inc.   [Aug-16-18 07:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Nautilus: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-30-18 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nautilus Inc to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Bowflex® HVT® Machine Earns Prestigious IDA Award   [Jun-13-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Nautilus: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nautilus Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Top NYSE Companies To Buy For Cheap   [Apr-24-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Should You Buy Nautilus Inc (NYSE:NLS) At This PE Ratio?   [Mar-21-18 08:14PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Best Cheap Stocks To Buy   [Mar-20-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Nautilus misses 4Q revenue forecasts   [Mar-05-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nautilus Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Bowflex® HVT® Machine Receives Distinguished ISPO Award   [Jan-30-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Nautilus Inc. looks to amp its e-commerce game   [Jan-16-18 05:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks This Week   [09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Nautilus, Inc. Launches New Ecommerce-Enabled Websites   [Jan-11-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Nautilus Inc (NYSE:NLS)?   [Dec-19-17 08:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nautilus, Inc. : November 17, 2017   [Nov-17-17 12:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nautilus, Inc. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 10:33AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Nautilus, Inc.'s Shares Plunged 24% Today   [Oct-31-17 01:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Should You Buy Nautilus Inc (NLS) At This PE Ratio?   [Oct-30-17 06:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Nautilus beats 3Q profit forecasts   [04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nautilus Inc to Host Earnings Call   [10:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nautilus, Inc. : August 21, 2017   [Aug-21-17 04:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Nautilus misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nautilus, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:NLS) : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nautilus, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Shares of Nautilus Inc. Popped 11% Today   [May-02-17 05:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nautilus meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-01-17 04:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 3 Stocks Are Up Over 500% in the Last Five Years   [Apr-26-17 03:06PM  Motley Fool]
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