Intrinsic value of Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. - NM

Previous Close

$4.65

  Intrinsic Value

$47.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+931%

Previous close

$4.65

 
Intrinsic value

$47.94

 
Up/down potential

+931%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  537
  589
  643
  699
  758
  819
  883
  949
  1,018
  1,089
  1,163
  1,241
  1,321
  1,404
  1,491
  1,582
  1,676
  1,774
  1,877
  1,984
  2,096
  2,212
  2,334
  2,462
  2,595
  2,735
  2,881
  3,033
  3,193
  3,361
Variable operating expenses, $m
  576
  629
  684
  742
  802
  864
  929
  997
  1,067
  1,140
  1,188
  1,267
  1,349
  1,434
  1,523
  1,615
  1,711
  1,812
  1,917
  2,026
  2,140
  2,259
  2,384
  2,514
  2,650
  2,792
  2,941
  3,097
  3,261
  3,432
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  576
  629
  684
  742
  802
  864
  929
  997
  1,067
  1,140
  1,188
  1,267
  1,349
  1,434
  1,523
  1,615
  1,711
  1,812
  1,917
  2,026
  2,140
  2,259
  2,384
  2,514
  2,650
  2,792
  2,941
  3,097
  3,261
  3,432
Operating income, $m
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
EBITDA, $m
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  266
  283
  299
  317
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  489
  515
  542
  570
  600
Interest expense (income), $m
  108
  125
  140
  156
  173
  191
  209
  228
  247
  268
  289
  311
  334
  358
  382
  408
  435
  463
  492
  522
  554
  587
  622
  658
  695
  734
  776
  819
  864
  911
  960
Earnings before tax, $m
  -164
  -181
  -198
  -216
  -234
  -254
  -274
  -295
  -317
  -340
  -335
  -360
  -386
  -412
  -440
  -468
  -498
  -529
  -562
  -596
  -631
  -668
  -707
  -747
  -789
  -833
  -879
  -928
  -978
  -1,031
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -164
  -181
  -198
  -216
  -234
  -254
  -274
  -295
  -317
  -340
  -335
  -360
  -386
  -412
  -440
  -468
  -498
  -529
  -562
  -596
  -631
  -668
  -707
  -747
  -789
  -833
  -879
  -928
  -978
  -1,031

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,901
  3,182
  3,475
  3,780
  4,098
  4,429
  4,773
  5,130
  5,502
  5,888
  6,289
  6,706
  7,139
  7,591
  8,061
  8,550
  9,060
  9,591
  10,146
  10,724
  11,328
  11,959
  12,619
  13,308
  14,028
  14,782
  15,571
  16,396
  17,261
  18,166
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,901
  3,182
  3,475
  3,780
  4,098
  4,429
  4,773
  5,130
  5,502
  5,888
  6,289
  6,706
  7,139
  7,591
  8,061
  8,550
  9,060
  9,591
  10,146
  10,724
  11,328
  11,959
  12,619
  13,308
  14,028
  14,782
  15,571
  16,396
  17,261
  18,166
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
Average production assets, $m
  2,251
  2,469
  2,697
  2,934
  3,181
  3,437
  3,704
  3,981
  4,270
  4,569
  4,880
  5,204
  5,541
  5,891
  6,256
  6,635
  7,031
  7,444
  7,874
  8,323
  8,792
  9,281
  9,793
  10,328
  10,887
  11,472
  12,084
  12,725
  13,396
  14,098
Working capital, $m
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -277
  -293
  -310
  -327
  -346
  -365
  -385
  -406
  -428
  -451
  -475
  -500
  -527
  -555
Total debt, $m
  1,978
  2,204
  2,439
  2,685
  2,941
  3,206
  3,483
  3,770
  4,069
  4,379
  4,702
  5,037
  5,386
  5,749
  6,126
  6,520
  6,930
  7,357
  7,803
  8,268
  8,754
  9,261
  9,791
  10,345
  10,924
  11,530
  12,164
  12,828
  13,523
  14,251
Total liabilities, $m
  2,332
  2,558
  2,794
  3,039
  3,295
  3,561
  3,837
  4,125
  4,423
  4,734
  5,056
  5,391
  5,740
  6,103
  6,481
  6,874
  7,284
  7,712
  8,157
  8,622
  9,108
  9,615
  10,145
  10,699
  11,279
  11,885
  12,519
  13,183
  13,878
  14,606
Total equity, $m
  569
  624
  681
  741
  803
  868
  935
  1,006
  1,078
  1,154
  1,233
  1,314
  1,399
  1,488
  1,580
  1,676
  1,776
  1,880
  1,989
  2,102
  2,220
  2,344
  2,473
  2,608
  2,750
  2,897
  3,052
  3,214
  3,383
  3,561
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,901
  3,182
  3,475
  3,780
  4,098
  4,429
  4,772
  5,131
  5,501
  5,888
  6,289
  6,705
  7,139
  7,591
  8,061
  8,550
  9,060
  9,592
  10,146
  10,724
  11,328
  11,959
  12,618
  13,307
  14,029
  14,782
  15,571
  16,397
  17,261
  18,167
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.480
  3.530
  3.580
  3.620
  3.660
  3.690
  3.720
  3.750
  3.770
  3.790
  3.810
  3.830
  3.850
  3.860
  3.880
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.920
  3.930
  3.940
  3.950
  3.960
  3.970
  3.970
  3.980
  3.990
  3.990
  4.000
  4.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -164
  -181
  -198
  -216
  -234
  -254
  -274
  -295
  -317
  -340
  -335
  -360
  -386
  -412
  -440
  -468
  -498
  -529
  -562
  -596
  -631
  -668
  -707
  -747
  -789
  -833
  -879
  -928
  -978
  -1,031
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  232
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  354
  375
  396
  419
  442
  466
  492
  518
  546
  575
  606
  638
  671
Funds from operations, $m
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -287
  -304
  -322
  -340
  -360
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  -21
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -314
  -332
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -97
  -107
  -118
  -128
  -140
  -151
  -164
  -176
  -190
  -203
  -218
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -354
  -375
  -396
  -419
  -442
  -466
  -492
  -518
  -546
  -575
  -606
  -638
New CAPEX, $m
  -208
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -413
  -430
  -449
  -469
  -490
  -512
  -535
  -559
  -585
  -612
  -641
  -671
  -703
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -305
  -325
  -345
  -365
  -387
  -408
  -431
  -453
  -478
  -502
  -529
  -556
  -585
  -614
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -784
  -824
  -865
  -909
  -954
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,103
  -1,158
  -1,216
  -1,277
  -1,341
Free cash flow, $m
  -326
  -352
  -378
  -404
  -432
  -460
  -490
  -521
  -552
  -585
  -620
  -656
  -693
  -732
  -773
  -815
  -860
  -906
  -955
  -1,006
  -1,059
  -1,115
  -1,174
  -1,235
  -1,300
  -1,367
  -1,438
  -1,513
  -1,591
  -1,673
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  218
  226
  236
  246
  256
  266
  276
  287
  299
  310
  323
  335
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  427
  446
  465
  486
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  634
  664
  695
  728
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  216
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  341
  365
  390
  415
  414
  442
  471
  501
  532
  564
  598
  634
  671
  709
  750
  792
  836
  882
  931
  981
  1,034
  1,090
  1,148
  1,209
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  434
  462
  491
  522
  553
  585
  617
  652
  689
  725
  737
  777
  820
  864
  910
  957
  1,008
  1,061
  1,117
  1,174
  1,236
  1,299
  1,366
  1,436
  1,510
  1,587
  1,668
  1,754
  1,843
  1,937
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  108
  110
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  140
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -216
  -236
  -255
  -276
  -297
  -319
  -341
  -365
  -390
  -415
  -414
  -442
  -471
  -501
  -532
  -564
  -598
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -750
  -792
  -836
  -882
  -931
  -981
  -1,034
  -1,090
  -1,148
  -1,209
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -108
  -126
  -142
  -159
  -176
  -195
  -214
  -233
  -254
  -275
  -297
  -320
  -344
  -369
  -395
  -422
  -450
  -479
  -509
  -541
  -574
  -608
  -644
  -681
  -721
  -761
  -804
  -849
  -896
  -945
Discount rate, %
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.31
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.18
  16.99
  17.84
  18.73
  19.67
  20.65
  21.68
  22.77
  23.91
  25.10
  26.36
  27.68
  29.06
  30.51
  32.04
  33.64
  35.32
  37.09
  38.94
  40.89
  42.93
  45.08
  47.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -97
  -100
  -99
  -96
  -92
  -86
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -53
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  62.5
  39.3
  24.8
  15.7
  10.0
  6.4
  4.1
  2.6
  1.7
  1.1
  0.7
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (Navios Holdings) is a global, vertically integrated seaborne shipping and logistics company. The Company is focused on the transport and transshipment of dry bulk commodities, including iron ore, coal and grain. It operates through two segments: the Dry bulk Vessel Operations and the Logistics Business. The Dry bulk Vessel Operations segment consists of the transportation and handling of bulk cargoes through the ownership, operation and trading of vessels, freight and forward freight agreements (FFAs). The Logistics Business segment consists of port terminal business, barge business and cabotage business in the Hidrovia region of South America. Navios Holdings also offers commercial and technical management services to the fleets of Navios Maritime Partners L.P., Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation, Navios Maritime Midstream Partners L.P., Navios Europe Inc. and Navios Europe (II) Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.8
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 334.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 234.1%
Total Debt to Equity 238.8%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Return On Total Capital -12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Equity -36.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
EBITDA Margin -17.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -67.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.7%
Net Profit Margin -68.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.1%
Effective Tax Rate -0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio -1.3%

NM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $487 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.5%, whose default value for NM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navios Maritime Holdings Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navios Maritime Holdings Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Navios Maritime Holdings Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NM are equal to 419.5%.

Life of production assets of 21 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NM is equal to -16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $516.098 million for Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.247 million for Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
NNA Navios Maritim 6.65 23.51  str.buy

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