Intrinsic value of National Retail Properties - NNN

Previous Close

$40.33

  Intrinsic Value

$6.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$40.33

 
Intrinsic value

$6.44

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NNN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NNN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.56
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  534
  585
  639
  694
  753
  813
  876
  941
  1,008
  1,079
  1,152
  1,228
  1,307
  1,390
  1,475
  1,565
  1,658
  1,755
  1,856
  1,962
  2,072
  2,187
  2,307
  2,433
  2,565
  2,702
  2,846
  2,997
  3,155
  3,320
  3,494
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  235
  256
  278
  302
  326
  351
  377
  404
  433
  462
  492
  524
  557
  592
  627
  665
  704
  744
  787
  831
  877
  925
  976
  1,028
  1,084
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,401
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  225
  235
  256
  278
  302
  326
  351
  377
  404
  433
  462
  492
  524
  557
  592
  627
  665
  704
  744
  787
  831
  877
  925
  976
  1,028
  1,084
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,401
Operating income, $m
  309
  351
  383
  416
  451
  487
  524
  564
  604
  646
  690
  736
  783
  832
  884
  937
  993
  1,051
  1,112
  1,175
  1,241
  1,310
  1,382
  1,457
  1,536
  1,619
  1,705
  1,795
  1,890
  1,989
  2,093
EBITDA, $m
  458
  555
  606
  659
  714
  771
  830
  892
  956
  1,023
  1,092
  1,165
  1,240
  1,318
  1,399
  1,484
  1,572
  1,664
  1,760
  1,860
  1,965
  2,074
  2,188
  2,307
  2,432
  2,563
  2,699
  2,842
  2,992
  3,149
  3,313
Interest expense (income), $m
  91
  97
  107
  118
  128
  139
  151
  163
  175
  188
  202
  216
  230
  245
  261
  277
  294
  312
  331
  350
  370
  391
  413
  436
  460
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  629
Earnings before tax, $m
  212
  253
  275
  298
  323
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  489
  520
  553
  587
  623
  660
  699
  739
  781
  825
  871
  919
  969
  1,021
  1,076
  1,133
  1,193
  1,256
  1,322
  1,391
  1,463
Tax expense, $m
  0
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
Net income, $m
  240
  185
  201
  218
  235
  254
  273
  293
  313
  334
  357
  380
  404
  429
  455
  482
  510
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  707
  746
  786
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,068

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,334
  6,651
  7,259
  7,892
  8,551
  9,237
  9,950
  10,690
  11,460
  12,260
  13,091
  13,956
  14,855
  15,791
  16,765
  17,780
  18,837
  19,940
  21,090
  22,290
  23,543
  24,852
  26,219
  27,649
  29,144
  30,708
  32,345
  34,059
  35,853
  37,732
  39,700
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,039
  6,651
  7,259
  7,892
  8,551
  9,237
  9,950
  10,690
  11,460
  12,260
  13,091
  13,956
  14,855
  15,791
  16,765
  17,780
  18,837
  19,940
  21,090
  22,290
  23,543
  24,852
  26,219
  27,649
  29,144
  30,708
  32,345
  34,059
  35,853
  37,732
  39,700
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
  0.088
Average production assets, $m
  5,595
  6,132
  6,693
  7,277
  7,885
  8,517
  9,174
  9,857
  10,567
  11,304
  12,071
  12,868
  13,698
  14,560
  15,459
  16,394
  17,369
  18,386
  19,446
  20,553
  21,708
  22,915
  24,176
  25,494
  26,873
  28,315
  29,824
  31,404
  33,058
  34,791
  36,606
Working capital, $m
  0
  -323
  -353
  -383
  -415
  -449
  -483
  -519
  -557
  -596
  -636
  -678
  -722
  -767
  -814
  -864
  -915
  -969
  -1,024
  -1,083
  -1,144
  -1,207
  -1,274
  -1,343
  -1,416
  -1,492
  -1,571
  -1,654
  -1,742
  -1,833
  -1,928
Total debt, $m
  2,312
  2,555
  2,798
  3,052
  3,315
  3,590
  3,875
  4,171
  4,479
  4,799
  5,132
  5,477
  5,837
  6,211
  6,601
  7,007
  7,430
  7,871
  8,331
  8,811
  9,312
  9,836
  10,383
  10,955
  11,553
  12,178
  12,833
  13,518
  14,236
  14,988
  15,775
Total liabilities, $m
  2,417
  2,660
  2,903
  3,157
  3,420
  3,695
  3,980
  4,276
  4,584
  4,904
  5,237
  5,582
  5,942
  6,316
  6,706
  7,112
  7,535
  7,976
  8,436
  8,916
  9,417
  9,941
  10,488
  11,060
  11,658
  12,283
  12,938
  13,623
  14,341
  15,093
  15,880
Total equity, $m
  3,917
  3,990
  4,355
  4,735
  5,131
  5,542
  5,970
  6,414
  6,876
  7,356
  7,855
  8,374
  8,913
  9,475
  10,059
  10,668
  11,302
  11,964
  12,654
  13,374
  14,126
  14,911
  15,732
  16,589
  17,487
  18,425
  19,407
  20,435
  21,512
  22,639
  23,820
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,334
  6,650
  7,258
  7,892
  8,551
  9,237
  9,950
  10,690
  11,460
  12,260
  13,092
  13,956
  14,855
  15,791
  16,765
  17,780
  18,837
  19,940
  21,090
  22,290
  23,543
  24,852
  26,220
  27,649
  29,145
  30,708
  32,345
  34,058
  35,853
  37,732
  39,700
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.590
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  240
  185
  201
  218
  235
  254
  273
  293
  313
  334
  357
  380
  404
  429
  455
  482
  510
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  707
  746
  786
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,068
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  149
  204
  223
  243
  263
  284
  306
  329
  352
  377
  402
  429
  457
  485
  515
  546
  579
  613
  648
  685
  724
  764
  806
  850
  896
  944
  994
  1,047
  1,102
  1,160
  1,220
Funds from operations, $m
  419
  389
  424
  460
  498
  538
  579
  621
  665
  711
  759
  809
  860
  914
  970
  1,028
  1,089
  1,152
  1,218
  1,287
  1,359
  1,435
  1,513
  1,595
  1,681
  1,771
  1,865
  1,964
  2,067
  2,175
  2,288
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
Cash from operations, $m
  415
  418
  454
  491
  530
  571
  613
  657
  703
  750
  799
  851
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,078
  1,140
  1,206
  1,274
  1,346
  1,420
  1,498
  1,580
  1,665
  1,754
  1,847
  1,945
  2,047
  2,154
  2,266
  2,384
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -187
  -204
  -223
  -243
  -263
  -284
  -306
  -329
  -352
  -377
  -402
  -429
  -457
  -485
  -515
  -546
  -579
  -613
  -648
  -685
  -724
  -764
  -806
  -850
  -896
  -944
  -994
  -1,047
  -1,102
  -1,160
New CAPEX, $m
  -886
  -537
  -561
  -584
  -608
  -632
  -657
  -683
  -710
  -738
  -767
  -797
  -829
  -863
  -898
  -936
  -975
  -1,017
  -1,060
  -1,107
  -1,155
  -1,207
  -1,261
  -1,318
  -1,379
  -1,442
  -1,509
  -1,580
  -1,654
  -1,733
  -1,815
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -780
  -724
  -765
  -807
  -851
  -895
  -941
  -989
  -1,039
  -1,090
  -1,144
  -1,199
  -1,258
  -1,320
  -1,383
  -1,451
  -1,521
  -1,596
  -1,673
  -1,755
  -1,840
  -1,931
  -2,025
  -2,124
  -2,229
  -2,338
  -2,453
  -2,574
  -2,701
  -2,835
  -2,975
Free cash flow, $m
  -365
  -306
  -311
  -316
  -320
  -324
  -328
  -332
  -336
  -340
  -344
  -349
  -354
  -360
  -366
  -373
  -381
  -390
  -399
  -409
  -420
  -432
  -445
  -459
  -474
  -491
  -508
  -527
  -547
  -568
  -591
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  336
  243
  243
  253
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  360
  374
  390
  406
  423
  441
  460
  480
  501
  524
  547
  572
  598
  626
  655
  685
  718
  752
  787
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  623
  183
  164
  162
  160
  158
  155
  152
  149
  146
  142
  139
  136
  133
  130
  127
  124
  122
  120
  118
  116
  115
  113
  112
  112
  111
  111
  111
  111
  112
  113
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  941
  426
  407
  415
  424
  432
  440
  448
  457
  466
  475
  485
  496
  507
  520
  533
  547
  563
  580
  598
  617
  639
  660
  684
  710
  737
  766
  796
  829
  864
  900
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  576
  121
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -575
  -368
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -411
  -428
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -540
  -561
  -585
  -609
  -634
  -661
  -690
  -720
  -752
  -785
  -821
  -858
  -897
  -938
  -982
  -1,028
  -1,076
  -1,127
  -1,181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  47
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -431
  -449
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -531
  -555
  -579
  -606
  -633
  -662
  -693
  -725
  -759
  -794
  -832
  -871
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  -235
  -227
  -217
  -206
  -194
  -181
  -167
  -153
  -139
  -124
  -110
  -97
  -83
  -71
  -60
  -50
  -40
  -32
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.9
  94.4
  92.2
  90.3
  88.5
  87.0
  85.6
  84.3
  83.2
  82.2
  81.3
  80.4
  79.7
  79.0
  78.4
  77.8
  77.2
  76.8
  76.3
  75.9
  75.5
  75.1
  74.8
  74.5
  74.2
  73.9
  73.6
  73.4
  73.1
  72.9

National Retail Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company acquires, owns, invests in and develops properties that are leased primarily to retail tenants under long-term net leases and are primarily held for investment. As of December 31, 2016, it owned 2,535 properties with an aggregate gross leasable area of approximately 27,204,000 square feet, located in 48 states. The Company focuses on investing in a range of property and tenant types; leases, mortgages and other types of real estate interests; loans secured by personal property; loans secured by partnership or membership interests in partnerships or limited liability companies, and securities of other REITs, or other issuers, including for the purpose of exercising control over such entities. The Company owns a portfolio of freestanding retail stores across the United States. It owns approximately 2,290 stores, which are leased to over 400 tenants in approximately 40 different retail categories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Retail Properties (NNN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.7
Price to Sales 11.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 59%
Total Debt to Equity 59%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.9%
EBITDA Margin 84.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86%
Operating Margin 57.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Net Profit Margin 44.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 123.3%

NNN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NNN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $534 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Retail Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of National Retail Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NNN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for NNN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Retail Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Retail Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NNN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NNN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for National Retail Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Retail Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NNN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NNN are equal to 1047.8%.

Life of production assets of 37.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Retail Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NNN is equal to -55.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3917 million for National Retail Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 152.098 million for National Retail Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Retail Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.

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Financial statements of NNN
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