Intrinsic value of North American Construction Group - NOA

Previous Close

$9.86

  Intrinsic Value

$1.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$9.86

 
Intrinsic value

$1.13

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NOA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.90
  40.91
  37.32
  34.09
  31.18
  28.56
  26.20
  24.08
  22.18
  20.46
  18.91
  17.52
  16.27
  15.14
  14.13
  13.22
  12.39
  11.65
  10.99
  10.39
  9.85
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.18
  7.86
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
Revenue, $m
  333
  469
  644
  864
  1,133
  1,457
  1,839
  2,282
  2,788
  3,358
  3,993
  4,693
  5,456
  6,282
  7,170
  8,118
  9,124
  10,187
  11,306
  12,481
  13,711
  14,995
  16,334
  17,728
  19,178
  20,687
  22,254
  23,883
  25,576
  27,336
Variable operating expenses, $m
  297
  418
  574
  770
  1,010
  1,298
  1,638
  2,033
  2,484
  2,992
  3,558
  4,181
  4,862
  5,598
  6,389
  7,233
  8,129
  9,077
  10,074
  11,121
  12,216
  13,360
  14,553
  15,796
  17,088
  18,432
  19,829
  21,280
  22,789
  24,356
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  312
  434
  590
  786
  1,027
  1,315
  1,655
  2,051
  2,502
  3,011
  3,577
  4,200
  4,882
  5,618
  6,410
  7,254
  8,151
  9,099
  10,097
  11,144
  12,240
  13,384
  14,578
  15,821
  17,114
  18,458
  19,856
  21,308
  22,817
  24,385
Operating income, $m
  21
  35
  54
  78
  107
  142
  183
  231
  286
  347
  416
  492
  575
  664
  761
  864
  973
  1,088
  1,210
  1,337
  1,471
  1,610
  1,756
  1,907
  2,065
  2,228
  2,399
  2,576
  2,760
  2,951
EBITDA, $m
  73
  109
  155
  213
  284
  369
  470
  588
  721
  872
  1,040
  1,226
  1,428
  1,646
  1,882
  2,132
  2,399
  2,681
  2,977
  3,288
  3,614
  3,954
  4,309
  4,678
  5,063
  5,462
  5,877
  6,309
  6,758
  7,224
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  6
  11
  18
  27
  37
  51
  66
  85
  107
  131
  159
  190
  224
  261
  302
  345
  391
  440
  492
  546
  604
  664
  726
  792
  860
  930
  1,004
  1,080
  1,160
  1,242
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  24
  36
  51
  69
  91
  117
  146
  179
  216
  257
  302
  351
  403
  459
  519
  582
  648
  718
  791
  867
  946
  1,029
  1,115
  1,205
  1,298
  1,395
  1,495
  1,600
  1,709
Tax expense, $m
  4
  6
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  39
  48
  58
  69
  82
  95
  109
  124
  140
  157
  175
  194
  214
  234
  256
  278
  301
  325
  350
  377
  404
  432
  461
Net income, $m
  11
  18
  26
  37
  51
  67
  85
  107
  131
  158
  188
  221
  256
  294
  335
  379
  425
  473
  524
  577
  633
  691
  751
  814
  880
  948
  1,018
  1,092
  1,168
  1,247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  436
  615
  844
  1,132
  1,485
  1,910
  2,410
  2,991
  3,654
  4,401
  5,234
  6,150
  7,151
  8,234
  9,397
  10,639
  11,958
  13,351
  14,818
  16,358
  17,969
  19,652
  21,407
  23,234
  25,136
  27,112
  29,167
  31,302
  33,521
  35,827
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  436
  615
  844
  1,132
  1,485
  1,910
  2,410
  2,991
  3,654
  4,401
  5,234
  6,150
  7,151
  8,234
  9,397
  10,639
  11,958
  13,351
  14,818
  16,358
  17,969
  19,652
  21,407
  23,234
  25,136
  27,112
  29,167
  31,302
  33,521
  35,827
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.764
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
Average production assets, $m
  297
  418
  574
  770
  1,010
  1,298
  1,638
  2,033
  2,484
  2,992
  3,558
  4,181
  4,862
  5,598
  6,389
  7,233
  8,129
  9,077
  10,074
  11,121
  12,216
  13,360
  14,553
  15,796
  17,088
  18,432
  19,829
  21,280
  22,789
  24,356
Working capital, $m
  36
  50
  69
  92
  121
  156
  197
  244
  298
  359
  427
  502
  584
  672
  767
  869
  976
  1,090
  1,210
  1,335
  1,467
  1,604
  1,748
  1,897
  2,052
  2,213
  2,381
  2,556
  2,737
  2,925
Total debt, $m
  192
  302
  444
  623
  842
  1,105
  1,415
  1,775
  2,186
  2,650
  3,166
  3,734
  4,355
  5,026
  5,747
  6,517
  7,335
  8,199
  9,108
  10,063
  11,062
  12,105
  13,193
  14,326
  15,505
  16,731
  18,004
  19,328
  20,704
  22,134
Total liabilities, $m
  271
  381
  524
  702
  921
  1,184
  1,494
  1,854
  2,265
  2,729
  3,245
  3,813
  4,434
  5,105
  5,826
  6,596
  7,414
  8,278
  9,187
  10,142
  11,141
  12,184
  13,272
  14,405
  15,584
  16,810
  18,084
  19,407
  20,783
  22,213
Total equity, $m
  166
  234
  321
  430
  564
  726
  916
  1,136
  1,388
  1,672
  1,989
  2,337
  2,717
  3,129
  3,571
  4,043
  4,544
  5,073
  5,631
  6,216
  6,828
  7,468
  8,135
  8,829
  9,552
  10,303
  11,083
  11,895
  12,738
  13,614
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  437
  615
  845
  1,132
  1,485
  1,910
  2,410
  2,990
  3,653
  4,401
  5,234
  6,150
  7,151
  8,234
  9,397
  10,639
  11,958
  13,351
  14,818
  16,358
  17,969
  19,652
  21,407
  23,234
  25,136
  27,113
  29,167
  31,302
  33,521
  35,827
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.150
  1.290
  1.390
  1.450
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  18
  26
  37
  51
  67
  85
  107
  131
  158
  188
  221
  256
  294
  335
  379
  425
  473
  524
  577
  633
  691
  751
  814
  880
  948
  1,018
  1,092
  1,168
  1,247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  73
  101
  135
  177
  228
  287
  357
  436
  525
  624
  734
  853
  982
  1,121
  1,269
  1,426
  1,592
  1,767
  1,951
  2,143
  2,344
  2,553
  2,771
  2,998
  3,234
  3,479
  3,733
  3,998
  4,273
Funds from operations, $m
  63
  91
  127
  172
  228
  294
  373
  463
  567
  683
  812
  954
  1,109
  1,276
  1,456
  1,648
  1,851
  2,065
  2,291
  2,528
  2,776
  3,035
  3,305
  3,585
  3,878
  4,181
  4,497
  4,825
  5,166
  5,520
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  68
  75
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  174
  181
  188
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  76
  108
  149
  199
  260
  332
  416
  512
  622
  744
  879
  1,027
  1,188
  1,361
  1,546
  1,743
  1,952
  2,172
  2,403
  2,645
  2,897
  3,161
  3,436
  3,722
  4,020
  4,329
  4,651
  4,985
  5,332
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -52
  -73
  -101
  -135
  -177
  -228
  -287
  -357
  -436
  -525
  -624
  -734
  -853
  -982
  -1,121
  -1,269
  -1,426
  -1,592
  -1,767
  -1,951
  -2,143
  -2,344
  -2,553
  -2,771
  -2,998
  -3,234
  -3,479
  -3,733
  -3,998
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -121
  -156
  -196
  -240
  -288
  -340
  -395
  -451
  -508
  -566
  -623
  -680
  -736
  -791
  -844
  -896
  -947
  -997
  -1,047
  -1,095
  -1,144
  -1,193
  -1,242
  -1,292
  -1,344
  -1,397
  -1,451
  -1,508
  -1,568
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -128
  -173
  -229
  -297
  -375
  -465
  -568
  -682
  -808
  -944
  -1,091
  -1,247
  -1,414
  -1,589
  -1,773
  -1,965
  -2,165
  -2,373
  -2,589
  -2,814
  -3,046
  -3,287
  -3,537
  -3,795
  -4,063
  -4,342
  -4,631
  -4,930
  -5,241
  -5,566
Free cash flow, $m
  -76
  -97
  -121
  -148
  -176
  -206
  -236
  -266
  -295
  -322
  -347
  -368
  -387
  -401
  -412
  -419
  -422
  -422
  -418
  -411
  -402
  -390
  -376
  -359
  -341
  -322
  -301
  -279
  -257
  -234
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  111
  142
  178
  219
  263
  310
  360
  411
  463
  516
  569
  620
  671
  721
  770
  818
  864
  910
  955
  999
  1,043
  1,088
  1,133
  1,179
  1,226
  1,274
  1,324
  1,376
  1,430
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  41
  50
  61
  72
  83
  95
  105
  114
  121
  126
  129
  128
  124
  117
  107
  93
  76
  56
  34
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  125
  161
  203
  250
  302
  358
  415
  474
  532
  589
  645
  697
  744
  788
  828
  863
  894
  920
  944
  963
  999
  1,043
  1,088
  1,133
  1,179
  1,226
  1,274
  1,324
  1,376
  1,430
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  48
  64
  82
  103
  126
  152
  179
  208
  237
  267
  298
  328
  358
  387
  416
  444
  472
  499
  525
  551
  597
  654
  712
  774
  837
  904
  973
  1,044
  1,119
  1,196
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -68
  -87
  -109
  -134
  -161
  -190
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -316
  -348
  -380
  -411
  -442
  -472
  -501
  -530
  -558
  -585
  -612
  -640
  -667
  -694
  -722
  -751
  -781
  -811
  -843
  -876
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -15
  14
  46
  79
  115
  153
  192
  233
  276
  320
Discount rate, %
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  86.1
  75.6
  67.6
  61.3
  56.3
  52.3
  49.0
  46.4
  44.2
  42.5
  41.0
  39.9
  38.9
  38.2
  37.6
  37.1
  36.8
  36.6
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5
  36.5

North American Energy Partners Inc. provides a range of mining and heavy construction services to customers in the resource development and industrial construction sectors within Western Canada. The Company's operating divisions include Heavy Construction and Mining; Industrial, and Tailings & Environmental Construction. Its Heavy Construction and Mining division is engaged in hard rock and oil sands mining, overburden removal, mine site development and mine reclamation. Its Industrial division offers services, which include site development, installation of underground utilities and piping, concrete foundations, facilities and infrastructure construction, and design/build services. The Tailings & Environmental Construction division performs a range of tailings, reclamation and environmental construction services, including oil sands tailings remediation; management of mine tailings; tailings dam and dyke construction, pipeline co-corridor construction, and tailings pipelines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  North American Construction Group (NOA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 43.2%
Total Debt to Equity 63.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
EBITDA Margin 22.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NOA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NOA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $229.816967793 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by North American Construction Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of North American Construction Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NOA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 44.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for NOA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of North American Construction Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of North American Construction Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NOA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NOA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for North American Construction Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for North American Construction Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NOA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NOA are equal to 89.1%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in North American Construction Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NOA is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $114.630007855 million for North American Construction Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.452 million for North American Construction Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of North American Construction Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ North American Energy Partners: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 07:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Confident Are Insiders About Allergan And More?   [Feb-14-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ North American Energy Partners posts 4Q profit   [Feb-13-18 06:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ North American Energy Partners posts 3Q loss   [Oct-31-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ North American Energy Partners posts 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 03:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ North American Energy Partners posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - NOA.DB   [Mar-15-17 08:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - NGD NOA SPB   [Feb-23-17 08:06AM  CNW Group]
▶ IIROC Trading Halt - NOA (all issues)   [Feb-22-17 05:11PM  CNW Group]
▶ North American Energy Partners posts 4Q loss   [Feb-14-17 06:42PM  Associated Press]

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