Intrinsic value of Natural Resource Partners - NRP

Previous Close

$29.20

  Intrinsic Value

$3.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$29.20

 
Intrinsic value

$3.28

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NRP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Natural Resource Partners (NRP) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.32
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  371
  379
  389
  399
  411
  424
  438
  454
  470
  488
  507
  528
  549
  572
  597
  623
  651
  680
  710
  743
  777
  814
  852
  892
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,075
  1,127
  1,182
  1,240
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  529
  542
  556
  573
  591
  611
  632
  655
  680
  707
  735
  766
  798
  832
  868
  907
  947
  990
  1,036
  1,084
  1,134
  1,187
  1,243
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,499
  1,572
  1,648
  1,728
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  185
  529
  542
  556
  573
  591
  611
  632
  655
  680
  707
  735
  766
  798
  832
  868
  907
  947
  990
  1,036
  1,084
  1,134
  1,187
  1,243
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,499
  1,572
  1,648
  1,728
Operating income, $m
  186
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -488
EBITDA, $m
  232
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
Interest expense (income), $m
  84
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
Earnings before tax, $m
  95
  -226
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -253
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -757
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  97
  -226
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -253
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -757

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,449
  1,442
  1,477
  1,518
  1,563
  1,612
  1,666
  1,725
  1,788
  1,856
  1,928
  2,006
  2,088
  2,176
  2,270
  2,369
  2,473
  2,584
  2,701
  2,825
  2,956
  3,093
  3,239
  3,392
  3,553
  3,722
  3,901
  4,089
  4,287
  4,495
  4,714
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,409
  1,442
  1,477
  1,518
  1,563
  1,612
  1,666
  1,725
  1,788
  1,856
  1,928
  2,006
  2,088
  2,176
  2,270
  2,369
  2,473
  2,584
  2,701
  2,825
  2,956
  3,093
  3,239
  3,392
  3,553
  3,722
  3,901
  4,089
  4,287
  4,495
  4,714
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
Average production assets, $m
  1,082
  1,106
  1,133
  1,164
  1,198
  1,236
  1,278
  1,323
  1,371
  1,423
  1,479
  1,538
  1,602
  1,669
  1,741
  1,817
  1,897
  1,982
  2,072
  2,167
  2,267
  2,372
  2,484
  2,601
  2,725
  2,855
  2,992
  3,136
  3,288
  3,447
  3,615
Working capital, $m
  -84
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Total debt, $m
  1,130
  1,119
  1,151
  1,187
  1,227
  1,271
  1,319
  1,371
  1,428
  1,488
  1,553
  1,622
  1,696
  1,774
  1,858
  1,946
  2,039
  2,138
  2,243
  2,353
  2,469
  2,592
  2,722
  2,858
  3,002
  3,153
  3,313
  3,481
  3,657
  3,843
  4,038
Total liabilities, $m
  1,297
  1,286
  1,318
  1,354
  1,394
  1,438
  1,486
  1,538
  1,595
  1,655
  1,720
  1,789
  1,863
  1,941
  2,025
  2,113
  2,206
  2,305
  2,410
  2,520
  2,636
  2,759
  2,889
  3,025
  3,169
  3,320
  3,480
  3,648
  3,824
  4,010
  4,205
Total equity, $m
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  442
  463
  485
  509
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,449
  1,442
  1,478
  1,518
  1,563
  1,612
  1,666
  1,724
  1,788
  1,855
  1,928
  2,006
  2,089
  2,176
  2,270
  2,369
  2,473
  2,584
  2,702
  2,825
  2,955
  3,093
  3,239
  3,391
  3,553
  3,722
  3,901
  4,090
  4,287
  4,495
  4,714
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.434
  7.190
  7.210
  7.240
  7.270
  7.300
  7.330
  7.360
  7.390
  7.430
  7.460
  7.490
  7.520
  7.550
  7.580
  7.610
  7.630
  7.660
  7.690
  7.710
  7.740
  7.760
  7.780
  7.800
  7.820
  7.840
  7.860
  7.880
  7.900
  7.920
  7.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.079
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  -226
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -253
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -757
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  -179
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -392
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -474
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -575
  -604
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -215
  -224
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -577
  -606
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
Cash from investing activities, $m
  167
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -315
Free cash flow, $m
  275
  -249
  -258
  -268
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -343
  -358
  -374
  -392
  -410
  -429
  -449
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -758
  -796
  -835
  -877
  -921
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -163
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  186
  195
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  229
  235
  242
  250
  258
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  386
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
  614
  644
  676
  709
  744
  781
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -264
  258
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  361
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  474
  497
  522
  546
  573
  601
  631
  663
  695
  730
  765
  803
  844
  885
  930
  976
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  10
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -250
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -586
  -614
  -644
  -676
  -709
  -744
  -781
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -220
  -226
  -232
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -262
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -545
  -571
  -599
  -628
  -659
  -691
  -725
Discount rate, %
 
  12.20
  12.81
  13.45
  14.12
  14.83
  15.57
  16.35
  17.17
  18.02
  18.93
  19.87
  20.87
  21.91
  23.00
  24.16
  25.36
  26.63
  27.96
  29.36
  30.83
  32.37
  33.99
  35.69
  37.47
  39.35
  41.31
  43.38
  45.55
  47.83
  50.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -196
  -178
  -159
  -141
  -123
  -106
  -91
  -77
  -64
  -52
  -42
  -33
  -25
  -19
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  59.6
  35.5
  21.1
  12.5
  7.4
  4.4
  2.6
  1.5
  0.9
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Natural Resource Partners L.P. owns, operates, manages and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States, including interests in coal, trona and soda ash, construction aggregates and other natural resources. Coal Royalty and Other segment consists primarily of coal royalty and coal related transportation and processing assets. As of December 31, 2016, Soda Ash segment included the Company's 49% non-controlling equity interest in Ciner Wyoming, a trona ore mining operation and soda ash refinery in the Green River Basin, Wyoming. VantaCore's operating businesses include Laurel Aggregates, located in Lake Lynn, Pennsylvania; Winn Materials/McIntosh Construction, located in Clarksville, Tennessee; Grand Rivers, located in Grand Rivers, Kentucky, and Southern Aggregates, located near Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Natural Resource Partners (NRP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -90.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -41.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 651.3%
Total Debt to Equity 743.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Equity 85.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 60.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Operating Margin 50.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Net Profit Margin 26.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 22.7%

NRP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NRP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $371 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Natural Resource Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Natural Resource Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NRP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.2%, whose default value for NRP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Natural Resource Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Natural Resource Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NRP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 139.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NRP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Natural Resource Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Natural Resource Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NRP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NRP are equal to 291.6%.

Life of production assets of 23.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Natural Resource Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NRP is equal to 4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $152 million for Natural Resource Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.573 million for Natural Resource Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Natural Resource Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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Financial statements of NRP
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