Intrinsic value of Nortech Systems - NSYS

Previous Close

$3.50

  Intrinsic Value

$10.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+190%

  Value-price divergence*

+503%

Previous close

$3.50

 
Intrinsic value

$10.15

 
Up/down potential

+190%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+503%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NSYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.74
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  397
  416
  437
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  194
  199
Total operating expenses, $m
  116
  122
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  157
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  187
  193
  198
  204
  211
  218
  224
  231
  238
  246
  254
  262
  270
  278
  287
Operating income, $m
  1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
EBITDA, $m
  3
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  151
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
Net income, $m
  0
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.089
  2.086
  2.083
  2.097
  2.077
  2.090
  2.086
  2.082
  2.079
  2.089
  2.072
  2.093
  2.089
  2.096
  2.081
  2.087
  2.083
  2.088
  2.093
  2.089
  2.085
  2.088
  2.084
  2.087
  2.089
  2.085
  2.087
  2.088
  2.089
  2.090
  2.091
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Working capital, $m
  19
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
Total debt, $m
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
Total liabilities, $m
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
Total equity, $m
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  55
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.636
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  92
  100
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  4
  3
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  94
  102
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.1
  74.5
  70.3
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
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Nortech Systems Incorporated is an electronic manufacturing services (EMS) company. The Company offers a range of value-added engineering, technical and manufacturing services and support, including project management, design, testing, prototyping, manufacturing, supply chain management and post-market services. The Company's segment is Contract Manufacturing. The Company's manufacturing and engineering services include medical devices, printed circuit board assemblies, wire and cable assemblies, and electromechanical assemblies. The Company's manufacturing facilities are located at Bemidji, Blue Earth, Merrifield, Eden Prairie, Milaca and Mankato in Minnesota; Augusta in Wisconsin; Monterrey in Mexico, and Suzhou in China. The Company serves approximately three markets within the EMS industry, such as Aerospace and Defense, Medical/Life Sciences and the Industrial market, which includes industrial equipment, transportation, vision, agriculture, oil and gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nortech Systems (NSYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 54.5%
Total Debt to Equity 63.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Operating Margin 0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NSYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NSYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $117 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nortech Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Nortech Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NSYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for NSYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nortech Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nortech Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NSYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $95 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NSYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Nortech Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nortech Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NSYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NSYS are equal to 1.7%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nortech Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NSYS is equal to 17.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $22 million for Nortech Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.805 million for Nortech Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nortech Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nortech Systems Announces Stock Repurchase Authorization   [Aug-15-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-09-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Second Quarter Results August 9   [Aug-03-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Appoints Chief Operating Officer   [May-17-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Reports First Quarter Results   [May-11-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report First Quarter Results May 11   [May-05-17 04:24PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results   [Mar-08-17 04:34PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Third Quarter Results November 2   [Oct-26-16 05:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Close Facility in Augusta, Wisconsin   [Aug-01-16 04:43PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Second Quarter Results August 3   [Jul-28-16 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report First Quarter Results May 4   [Apr-26-16 04:48PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Fourth Quarter Results March 9   [Mar-01-16 12:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Reports Third Quarter Results   [Nov-04  04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Launches PCBA Operations in Mexico   [Sep-30  05:12PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Nortech Systems, Inc.   [Aug-07  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Second Quarter Results August 5   [Jul-29  05:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Acquires Devicix   [Jun-17  01:09PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Nortech Systems, Inc.   [May-08  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Nortech Systems, Inc.   [May-06  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report First Quarter Results May 6   [Apr-28  03:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems Leases New Corporate Headquarters   [Apr-10  12:20PM  at noodls]
▶ Nortech Systems Leases New Corporate Headquarters   [Apr-09  04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Nortech Systems to Report Fourth Quarter Results March 11   [Mar-03  01:35PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of NSYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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