Intrinsic value of NETGEAR - NTGR

Previous Close

$64.15

  Intrinsic Value

$35.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$64.15

 
Intrinsic value

$35.28

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTGR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  1,560
  1,721
  1,889
  2,065
  2,248
  2,439
  2,638
  2,844
  3,058
  3,281
  3,513
  3,753
  4,004
  4,264
  4,535
  4,816
  5,110
  5,416
  5,734
  6,067
  6,414
  6,776
  7,154
  7,549
  7,962
  8,394
  8,845
  9,318
  9,813
  10,331
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,571
  1,723
  1,882
  2,048
  2,221
  2,401
  2,588
  2,782
  2,984
  3,183
  3,401
  3,628
  3,864
  4,109
  4,364
  4,630
  4,907
  5,196
  5,497
  5,812
  6,140
  6,482
  6,840
  7,215
  7,606
  8,015
  8,444
  8,892
  9,361
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,571
  1,723
  1,882
  2,048
  2,221
  2,401
  2,588
  2,782
  2,984
  3,183
  3,401
  3,628
  3,864
  4,109
  4,364
  4,630
  4,907
  5,196
  5,497
  5,812
  6,140
  6,482
  6,840
  7,215
  7,606
  8,015
  8,444
  8,892
  9,361
Operating income, $m
  135
  150
  166
  183
  200
  218
  236
  256
  276
  297
  330
  352
  376
  400
  426
  452
  480
  508
  538
  569
  602
  636
  671
  708
  747
  788
  830
  875
  921
  970
EBITDA, $m
  163
  180
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  320
  343
  367
  393
  419
  446
  474
  504
  535
  567
  600
  635
  671
  709
  748
  790
  833
  878
  925
  975
  1,027
  1,081
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  137
  145
  154
Earnings before tax, $m
  135
  148
  160
  174
  188
  202
  217
  233
  250
  267
  295
  314
  333
  352
  373
  395
  417
  440
  464
  490
  516
  544
  573
  603
  634
  667
  702
  738
  776
  815
Tax expense, $m
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
Net income, $m
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  539
  566
  595

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,340
  1,479
  1,623
  1,774
  1,932
  2,095
  2,266
  2,443
  2,627
  2,819
  3,018
  3,225
  3,439
  3,663
  3,896
  4,138
  4,390
  4,653
  4,926
  5,212
  5,510
  5,821
  6,146
  6,485
  6,840
  7,211
  7,599
  8,005
  8,430
  8,875
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,340
  1,479
  1,623
  1,774
  1,932
  2,095
  2,266
  2,443
  2,627
  2,819
  3,018
  3,225
  3,439
  3,663
  3,896
  4,138
  4,390
  4,653
  4,926
  5,212
  5,510
  5,821
  6,146
  6,485
  6,840
  7,211
  7,599
  8,005
  8,430
  8,875
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
  1.164
Average production assets, $m
  87
  96
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  340
  359
  379
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  522
  550
  579
Working capital, $m
  290
  320
  351
  384
  418
  454
  491
  529
  569
  610
  653
  698
  745
  793
  843
  896
  950
  1,007
  1,067
  1,128
  1,193
  1,260
  1,331
  1,404
  1,481
  1,561
  1,645
  1,733
  1,825
  1,921
Total debt, $m
  53
  107
  165
  225
  287
  352
  419
  489
  562
  638
  717
  799
  884
  972
  1,065
  1,160
  1,260
  1,364
  1,473
  1,586
  1,704
  1,827
  1,956
  2,090
  2,231
  2,378
  2,531
  2,692
  2,860
  3,036
Total liabilities, $m
  531
  586
  643
  703
  765
  830
  897
  968
  1,040
  1,116
  1,195
  1,277
  1,362
  1,451
  1,543
  1,639
  1,738
  1,842
  1,951
  2,064
  2,182
  2,305
  2,434
  2,568
  2,709
  2,856
  3,009
  3,170
  3,338
  3,515
Total equity, $m
  810
  893
  980
  1,072
  1,167
  1,266
  1,369
  1,476
  1,587
  1,703
  1,823
  1,948
  2,077
  2,212
  2,353
  2,499
  2,651
  2,810
  2,976
  3,148
  3,328
  3,516
  3,712
  3,917
  4,131
  4,356
  4,590
  4,835
  5,092
  5,361
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,341
  1,479
  1,623
  1,775
  1,932
  2,096
  2,266
  2,444
  2,627
  2,819
  3,018
  3,225
  3,439
  3,663
  3,896
  4,138
  4,389
  4,652
  4,927
  5,212
  5,510
  5,821
  6,146
  6,485
  6,840
  7,212
  7,599
  8,005
  8,430
  8,876
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.170
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  539
  566
  595
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  137
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  212
  226
  241
  253
  269
  286
  303
  321
  340
  359
  380
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  549
  578
  608
  639
  672
  706
Change in working capital, $m
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Cash from operations, $m
  98
  107
  117
  128
  138
  150
  161
  174
  186
  199
  210
  225
  239
  255
  271
  287
  305
  323
  342
  361
  381
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  524
  551
  580
  610
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
Free cash flow, $m
  74
  82
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  236
  251
  265
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
  387
  408
  429
  452
  475
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  127
  136
  147
  157
  168
  180
  191
  204
  217
  230
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
  436
  459
  483
  508
  534
  562
  590
  620
  651
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  88
  97
  105
  114
  121
  130
  140
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
  383
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  46
  48
  52
  54
  57
  58
  60
  60
  61
  60
  57
  56
  53
  51
  47
  44
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NETGEAR, Inc. designs, develops and markets networking solutions and smart connected products for consumers, businesses and service providers. The Company's product line consists of devices, such as network attached storage, Internet protocol (IP) security cameras, and home automation devices and services. The Company's segments include retail, commercial and service provider. The retail business unit is focused on individual consumers and consists of whole home wireless fidelity (WiFi) networking solutions and Smart connected products. The commercial business unit is focused on small and medium-sized businesses and consists of business networking, storage and security solutions. The service provider business unit is focused on the service provider market and consists of made-to-order and retail-proven whole home networking hardware and software solutions, including fourth-generation (4G) long term evolution (LTE) hotspots sold to service providers for sale to their subscribers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NETGEAR (NTGR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 33.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTGR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTGR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1406.92 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NETGEAR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NETGEAR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTGR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTGR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NETGEAR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NETGEAR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTGR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTGR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for NETGEAR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NETGEAR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTGR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTGR are equal to 5.6%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NETGEAR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTGR is equal to 18.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $730.485 million for NETGEAR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.808 million for NETGEAR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NETGEAR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Netgear: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ NETGEAR to Host 2018 Financial Analyst Day   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NETGEAR, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [05:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ Q2 wages fell across the U.S., but not in the land where tech is king   [Jul-12-18 04:26PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jason's Picks: $10 Off This Top-Rated Netgear Modem   [Jul-07-18 11:07AM  Benzinga]
▶ Netgear's Arlo Files for Cloud, IoT IPO   [Jul-06-18 07:31PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Netgear's unit Arlo files for IPO   [05:49PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Stocks to watch off a big jobs number   [01:16PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ NETGEAR Appoints Brad Maiorino to Board of Directors   [Jul-03-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy NETGEAR Inc (NASDAQ:NTGR)?   [Jun-25-18 08:33AM  Simply Wall St.]
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▶ NETGEAR to Host 2018 Annual Stockholder Meeting   [May-24-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] FBI Moves to Dismantle Network of Hacked Devices Linked to Russia   [May-23-18 10:11PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ Netgear Beats Again as Arlo Spinoff Nears   [08:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Netgear: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Netgear shares drop on weak outlook   [04:38PM  MarketWatch]
▶ NETGEAR, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:45PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Calculating The Fair Value Of NETGEAR Inc (NASDAQ:NTGR)   [Mar-17-18 04:30PM  Simply Wall St.]
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