Intrinsic value of Network-1 Technologies - NTIP

Previous Close

$2.59

  Intrinsic Value

$112.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$2.59

 
Intrinsic value

$112.46

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  26
  41
  61
  88
  124
  171
  230
  302
  388
  490
  609
  744
  897
  1,067
  1,255
  1,460
  1,682
  1,920
  2,175
  2,445
  2,731
  3,032
  3,348
  3,678
  4,023
  4,383
  4,758
  5,148
  5,554
  5,976
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  453
  533
  620
  714
  816
  924
  1,039
  1,160
  1,288
  1,422
  1,562
  1,709
  1,862
  2,021
  2,187
  2,359
  2,539
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  14
  20
  29
  41
  56
  76
  101
  132
  169
  212
  263
  320
  385
  457
  537
  624
  718
  820
  929
  1,044
  1,165
  1,293
  1,427
  1,567
  1,714
  1,867
  2,026
  2,193
  2,365
  2,545
Operating income, $m
  12
  20
  32
  47
  68
  95
  128
  170
  219
  278
  346
  424
  512
  610
  718
  836
  963
  1,100
  1,246
  1,402
  1,566
  1,739
  1,920
  2,111
  2,309
  2,516
  2,731
  2,956
  3,189
  3,431
EBITDA, $m
  12
  21
  32
  48
  70
  97
  131
  173
  224
  283
  353
  432
  522
  621
  731
  851
  981
  1,120
  1,269
  1,428
  1,595
  1,771
  1,956
  2,149
  2,352
  2,562
  2,782
  3,010
  3,248
  3,495
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  20
  31
  47
  67
  94
  127
  168
  217
  274
  342
  418
  505
  601
  708
  823
  949
  1,084
  1,228
  1,381
  1,542
  1,713
  1,891
  2,078
  2,273
  2,477
  2,689
  2,910
  3,139
  3,377
Tax expense, $m
  3
  5
  8
  13
  18
  25
  34
  45
  58
  74
  92
  113
  136
  162
  191
  222
  256
  293
  332
  373
  416
  462
  511
  561
  614
  669
  726
  786
  848
  912
Net income, $m
  9
  15
  23
  34
  49
  68
  93
  122
  158
  200
  249
  305
  369
  439
  517
  601
  693
  791
  896
  1,008
  1,126
  1,250
  1,381
  1,517
  1,660
  1,808
  1,963
  2,124
  2,291
  2,465

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10
  15
  23
  33
  47
  64
  86
  114
  146
  185
  229
  280
  338
  402
  472
  550
  633
  723
  819
  920
  1,028
  1,141
  1,260
  1,384
  1,514
  1,650
  1,791
  1,938
  2,090
  2,249
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10
  15
  23
  33
  47
  64
  86
  114
  146
  185
  229
  280
  338
  402
  472
  550
  633
  723
  819
  920
  1,028
  1,141
  1,260
  1,384
  1,514
  1,650
  1,791
  1,938
  2,090
  2,249
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.600
  2.733
  2.652
  2.667
  2.638
  2.672
  2.674
  2.649
  2.658
  2.649
  2.659
  2.657
  2.654
  2.654
  2.659
  2.655
  2.657
  2.656
  2.656
  2.658
  2.657
  2.657
  2.657
  2.658
  2.657
  2.656
  2.657
  2.656
  2.657
  2.657
Average production assets, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  39
  48
  57
  67
  77
  89
  102
  115
  130
  145
  161
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  294
  317
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -64
  -80
  -98
  -118
  -140
  -164
  -191
  -220
  -252
  -285
  -320
  -358
  -397
  -439
  -482
  -527
  -574
  -623
  -674
  -728
  -783
Total debt, $m
  2
  4
  8
  13
  20
  28
  39
  52
  67
  86
  107
  131
  159
  190
  223
  260
  300
  343
  389
  438
  489
  544
  601
  660
  722
  787
  855
  925
  998
  1,074
Total liabilities, $m
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  31
  41
  54
  70
  88
  110
  134
  162
  192
  226
  263
  303
  346
  392
  441
  492
  547
  603
  663
  725
  790
  858
  928
  1,001
  1,077
Total equity, $m
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  34
  45
  59
  76
  96
  119
  146
  176
  209
  246
  286
  330
  377
  426
  479
  535
  594
  656
  721
  789
  860
  933
  1,010
  1,089
  1,172
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10
  15
  23
  33
  46
  65
  86
  113
  146
  184
  229
  280
  338
  401
  472
  549
  633
  723
  818
  920
  1,027
  1,141
  1,259
  1,384
  1,514
  1,650
  1,791
  1,938
  2,090
  2,249
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.360
  0.560
  0.680
  0.750
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  15
  23
  34
  49
  68
  93
  122
  158
  200
  249
  305
  369
  439
  517
  601
  693
  791
  896
  1,008
  1,126
  1,250
  1,381
  1,517
  1,660
  1,808
  1,963
  2,124
  2,291
  2,465
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  15
  24
  35
  51
  70
  95
  126
  162
  206
  256
  313
  378
  450
  530
  617
  711
  812
  919
  1,034
  1,155
  1,282
  1,416
  1,556
  1,702
  1,855
  2,013
  2,179
  2,350
  2,529
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
Cash from operations, $m
  10
  17
  26
  39
  55
  77
  103
  135
  174
  219
  271
  331
  398
  473
  554
  643
  740
  843
  953
  1,069
  1,192
  1,322
  1,457
  1,599
  1,747
  1,902
  2,063
  2,230
  2,403
  2,584
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  16
  25
  37
  53
  73
  98
  129
  166
  210
  260
  317
  382
  454
  533
  619
  712
  812
  919
  1,032
  1,151
  1,277
  1,409
  1,546
  1,690
  1,840
  1,996
  2,159
  2,327
  2,503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  19
  28
  42
  59
  81
  109
  142
  182
  228
  281
  342
  410
  485
  567
  656
  752
  855
  965
  1,081
  1,203
  1,331
  1,465
  1,606
  1,752
  1,905
  2,064
  2,229
  2,401
  2,579
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -80
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  61
  16
  25
  36
  52
  72
  97
  128
  165
  208
  258
  315
  380
  451
  530
  616
  709
  809
  915
  1,028
  1,147
  1,272
  1,404
  1,541
  1,685
  1,834
  1,990
  2,152
  2,321
  2,496
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  58
  14
  21
  30
  40
  52
  66
  80
  95
  109
  123
  135
  144
  152
  156
  157
  154
  149
  141
  131
  119
  106
  92
  78
  66
  54
  43
  33
  25
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Network-1 Technologies, Inc. is engaged in the development, licensing and protection of its property assets. The Company owns over 27 patents, including the remote power patent (Remote Power Patent) covering the delivery of power over Ethernet (PoE) cables for the purpose of remotely powering network devices, such as wireless access ports, Internet protocol (IP) phones and network based cameras; the Mirror Worlds patent portfolio (the Mirror Worlds Patent Portfolio) relating to foundational technologies that enable unified search and indexing, displaying and archiving of documents in a computer system; the Cox patent portfolio (the Cox Patent Portfolio) relating to enabling technology for identifying media content on the Internet, and the QoS patents (the QoS Patents) covering systems and methods for the transmission of audio, video and data in order to achieve high quality of service (QoS) over computer and telephony networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Network-1 Technologies (NTIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 282.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 52.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Return On Total Capital 56.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Return On Equity 56.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.6%
EBITDA Margin 50.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Operating Margin 49.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 49.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Net Profit Margin 35.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Effective Tax Rate 28.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16.451 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Network-1 Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Network-1 Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Network-1 Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Network-1 Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Network-1 Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Network-1 Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTIP are equal to 5.3%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Network-1 Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTIP is equal to -13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $54.412 million for Network-1 Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.836 million for Network-1 Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Network-1 Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Network-1 Reports Third Quarter Results   [Nov-14-18 04:54PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Receives New Patent from U.S. Patent Office   [Sep-13-18 04:40PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Receives Two New Patents from U.S. Patent Office   [Aug-28-18 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-13-18 07:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Declares Semi-Annual Dividend   [Jul-26-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-16-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Network-1 Reports 2017 Year-End Financial Results   [Apr-02-18 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Declares Semi-Annual Dividend   [Feb-09-18 02:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Federal Circuit Rules in Favor of Network-1   [Jan-23-18 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Announces Sale of Approved Bankruptcy Claim   [Jan-10-18 06:46PM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Announces Acquisition of Patent Portfolio   [Jan-04-18 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Reports Third Quarter Results   [Nov-15-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-14-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Declares Semi-Annual Dividend   [Jul-26-17 12:56PM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Increases its Share Repurchase Program   [Jun-16-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-15-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Commences Patent Litigation against Facebook   [May-10-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ /NOTICE TO DISREGARD - Network-1 Technologies, Inc.   [Mar-27-17 11:24AM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Expands its Cox Patent Portfolio to 16 Patents   [Jan-10-17 01:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Network-1 Announces Approval of Dividend Policy   [Dec-09-16 08:49AM  Marketwired]

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