Intrinsic value of Nutrisystem - NTRI

Previous Close

$40.00

  Intrinsic Value

$156.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+291%

Previous close

$40.00

 
Intrinsic value

$156.38

 
Up/down potential

+291%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.80
  25.52
  23.47
  21.62
  19.96
  18.46
  17.12
  15.91
  14.81
  13.83
  12.95
  12.15
  11.44
  10.80
  10.22
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
Revenue, $m
  891
  1,118
  1,380
  1,679
  2,014
  2,386
  2,794
  3,239
  3,719
  4,233
  4,781
  5,362
  5,976
  6,621
  7,297
  8,005
  8,743
  9,513
  10,314
  11,147
  12,013
  12,914
  13,849
  14,822
  15,832
  16,883
  17,976
  19,113
  20,297
  21,530
Variable operating expenses, $m
  718
  900
  1,111
  1,351
  1,621
  1,920
  2,248
  2,606
  2,992
  3,405
  3,845
  4,312
  4,805
  5,324
  5,868
  6,437
  7,031
  7,649
  8,294
  8,964
  9,660
  10,384
  11,137
  11,919
  12,731
  13,576
  14,455
  15,370
  16,321
  17,313
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
Total operating expenses, $m
  771
  954
  1,167
  1,408
  1,679
  1,979
  2,309
  2,668
  3,055
  3,470
  3,911
  4,380
  4,874
  5,395
  5,940
  6,511
  7,106
  7,726
  8,373
  9,044
  9,742
  10,468
  11,223
  12,007
  12,821
  13,668
  14,549
  15,466
  16,419
  17,413
Operating income, $m
  120
  163
  214
  271
  335
  407
  485
  571
  664
  763
  870
  983
  1,101
  1,226
  1,357
  1,494
  1,637
  1,786
  1,941
  2,103
  2,271
  2,445
  2,627
  2,815
  3,011
  3,215
  3,427
  3,648
  3,878
  4,117
EBITDA, $m
  127
  172
  224
  283
  350
  424
  505
  594
  690
  792
  902
  1,018
  1,141
  1,270
  1,405
  1,547
  1,695
  1,849
  2,010
  2,177
  2,350
  2,531
  2,718
  2,913
  3,116
  3,327
  3,546
  3,774
  4,012
  4,259
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  162
  211
  267
  330
  400
  477
  560
  651
  748
  852
  962
  1,078
  1,199
  1,327
  1,461
  1,600
  1,745
  1,897
  2,054
  2,218
  2,388
  2,565
  2,748
  2,939
  3,138
  3,345
  3,560
  3,784
  4,017
Tax expense, $m
  32
  44
  57
  72
  89
  108
  129
  151
  176
  202
  230
  260
  291
  324
  358
  394
  432
  471
  512
  555
  599
  645
  692
  742
  794
  847
  903
  961
  1,022
  1,085
Net income, $m
  88
  119
  154
  195
  241
  292
  348
  409
  475
  546
  622
  702
  787
  876
  969
  1,066
  1,168
  1,274
  1,384
  1,499
  1,619
  1,743
  1,872
  2,006
  2,146
  2,291
  2,442
  2,599
  2,762
  2,933

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  247
  310
  383
  466
  559
  662
  776
  899
  1,032
  1,175
  1,327
  1,488
  1,659
  1,838
  2,025
  2,222
  2,427
  2,640
  2,863
  3,094
  3,334
  3,584
  3,844
  4,114
  4,394
  4,686
  4,989
  5,305
  5,633
  5,976
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  247
  310
  383
  466
  559
  662
  776
  899
  1,032
  1,175
  1,327
  1,488
  1,659
  1,838
  2,025
  2,222
  2,427
  2,640
  2,863
  3,094
  3,334
  3,584
  3,844
  4,114
  4,394
  4,686
  4,989
  5,305
  5,633
  5,976
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.607
  3.606
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.604
  3.601
  3.603
  3.604
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.602
  3.602
  3.603
  3.603
  3.602
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
  3.603
Average production assets, $m
  59
  74
  91
  111
  133
  157
  184
  214
  245
  279
  316
  354
  394
  437
  482
  528
  577
  628
  681
  736
  793
  852
  914
  978
  1,045
  1,114
  1,186
  1,261
  1,340
  1,421
Working capital, $m
  12
  16
  19
  24
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  222
  236
  252
  268
  284
  301
Total debt, $m
  19
  40
  65
  93
  125
  160
  198
  240
  285
  334
  386
  440
  498
  559
  623
  690
  759
  832
  908
  986
  1,068
  1,153
  1,241
  1,333
  1,428
  1,528
  1,631
  1,738
  1,850
  1,966
Total liabilities, $m
  84
  106
  130
  158
  190
  225
  264
  306
  351
  399
  451
  506
  564
  625
  689
  755
  825
  898
  973
  1,052
  1,134
  1,219
  1,307
  1,399
  1,494
  1,593
  1,696
  1,804
  1,915
  2,032
Total equity, $m
  163
  205
  253
  308
  369
  437
  512
  593
  681
  775
  876
  982
  1,095
  1,213
  1,337
  1,466
  1,602
  1,743
  1,889
  2,042
  2,201
  2,366
  2,537
  2,715
  2,900
  3,093
  3,293
  3,501
  3,718
  3,944
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  247
  311
  383
  466
  559
  662
  776
  899
  1,032
  1,174
  1,327
  1,488
  1,659
  1,838
  2,026
  2,221
  2,427
  2,641
  2,862
  3,094
  3,335
  3,585
  3,844
  4,114
  4,394
  4,686
  4,989
  5,305
  5,633
  5,976
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.110
  0.200
  0.260
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  88
  119
  154
  195
  241
  292
  348
  409
  475
  546
  622
  702
  787
  876
  969
  1,066
  1,168
  1,274
  1,384
  1,499
  1,619
  1,743
  1,872
  2,006
  2,146
  2,291
  2,442
  2,599
  2,762
  2,933
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  9
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  142
Funds from operations, $m
  95
  127
  165
  208
  256
  309
  368
  432
  501
  575
  654
  738
  826
  919
  1,017
  1,119
  1,226
  1,337
  1,453
  1,573
  1,698
  1,828
  1,964
  2,104
  2,250
  2,402
  2,560
  2,725
  2,896
  3,075
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  92
  124
  161
  203
  251
  304
  362
  426
  494
  568
  646
  729
  818
  910
  1,007
  1,109
  1,215
  1,326
  1,441
  1,561
  1,686
  1,816
  1,950
  2,091
  2,236
  2,388
  2,545
  2,709
  2,880
  3,057
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -126
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -165
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -204
  -215
Free cash flow, $m
  74
  103
  136
  175
  218
  266
  319
  378
  441
  509
  582
  660
  742
  828
  919
  1,014
  1,114
  1,218
  1,326
  1,438
  1,555
  1,677
  1,803
  1,935
  2,072
  2,214
  2,361
  2,515
  2,675
  2,842
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  93
  125
  161
  203
  249
  301
  358
  420
  486
  558
  634
  714
  800
  889
  983
  1,081
  1,183
  1,290
  1,401
  1,517
  1,637
  1,762
  1,892
  2,027
  2,167
  2,313
  2,465
  2,623
  2,787
  2,958
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  68
  76
  86
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  288
  306
  325
Cash available for distribution, $m
  66
  83
  113
  148
  188
  233
  283
  338
  399
  464
  533
  608
  687
  771
  859
  951
  1,048
  1,149
  1,255
  1,364
  1,478
  1,597
  1,720
  1,849
  1,982
  2,120
  2,264
  2,414
  2,570
  2,733
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  63
  76
  98
  122
  146
  169
  191
  211
  229
  243
  253
  259
  261
  259
  252
  242
  228
  212
  193
  173
  153
  133
  113
  94
  77
  62
  49
  37
  28
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nutrisystem, Inc. is a provider of weight management products and services, including nutritionally balanced weight loss programs, multi-day kits available at retail locations and digital tools to support weight loss. The Company's program customers purchase monthly food packages containing four-week meal plan consisting supply of breakfasts, lunches, dinners and snacks and flex meal plan recipes, which they supplement with fresh fruits, vegetables and dairy. Its customers order on an auto-delivery basis (Auto-Delivery), where means it sends a four-week meal plan on an ongoing basis until notified of a customer's cancellation. The Company offers its pre-selected favorites food pack or personalized plans, where customers can hand pick their entire menu or customize plans to their dietary preference. As of December 31, 2016, its meal plans featured over 150 menu options at different price points, including frozen and ready-to-go entrees, desserts, snacks and shakes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nutrisystem (NTRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.9
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 12.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 33
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Return On Total Capital 42.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Return On Equity 42.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Asset Turnover 3.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 60%

NTRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $697 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nutrisystem. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Nutrisystem. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nutrisystem, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nutrisystem.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $52 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Nutrisystem.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nutrisystem. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTRI stock is equal to 1.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTRI are equal to 6.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nutrisystem operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTRI is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $136 million for Nutrisystem - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30 million for Nutrisystem is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nutrisystem at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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