Intrinsic value of Natuzzi, S.p.A. - NTZ

Previous Close

$2.90

  Intrinsic Value

$2.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$2.90

 
Intrinsic value

$2.75

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.18
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.32
  6.18
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  605
  674
  747
  823
  902
  985
  1,072
  1,162
  1,255
  1,352
  1,454
  1,559
  1,668
  1,781
  1,899
  2,022
  2,150
  2,283
  2,421
  2,565
  2,716
  2,873
  3,036
  3,207
  3,386
  3,572
  3,767
  3,971
  4,185
  4,408
Variable operating expenses, $m
  605
  674
  747
  822
  902
  985
  1,071
  1,161
  1,254
  1,351
  1,452
  1,557
  1,666
  1,779
  1,897
  2,019
  2,147
  2,280
  2,418
  2,562
  2,712
  2,869
  3,032
  3,203
  3,381
  3,568
  3,763
  3,966
  4,179
  4,402
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  605
  674
  747
  822
  902
  985
  1,071
  1,161
  1,254
  1,351
  1,452
  1,557
  1,666
  1,779
  1,897
  2,019
  2,147
  2,280
  2,418
  2,562
  2,712
  2,869
  3,032
  3,203
  3,381
  3,568
  3,763
  3,966
  4,179
  4,402
Operating income, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
EBITDA, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  428
  476
  527
  581
  637
  696
  757
  820
  886
  955
  1,027
  1,101
  1,178
  1,258
  1,341
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,144
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,661
  2,805
  2,955
  3,113
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  428
  476
  527
  581
  637
  696
  757
  820
  886
  955
  1,027
  1,101
  1,178
  1,258
  1,341
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,144
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,661
  2,805
  2,955
  3,113
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.414
  1.416
  1.417
  1.417
  1.416
  1.415
  1.416
  1.417
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
  1.416
Average production assets, $m
  144
  160
  178
  196
  215
  234
  255
  276
  299
  322
  346
  371
  397
  424
  452
  481
  512
  543
  576
  611
  646
  684
  723
  763
  806
  850
  897
  945
  996
  1,049
Working capital, $m
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
Total debt, $m
  85
  117
  152
  187
  225
  263
  304
  346
  390
  436
  483
  533
  584
  637
  693
  750
  810
  873
  938
  1,006
  1,076
  1,150
  1,227
  1,307
  1,391
  1,479
  1,570
  1,666
  1,766
  1,871
Total liabilities, $m
  284
  317
  351
  386
  424
  463
  503
  546
  589
  635
  683
  732
  783
  837
  892
  950
  1,010
  1,072
  1,137
  1,205
  1,275
  1,349
  1,426
  1,506
  1,590
  1,678
  1,769
  1,865
  1,965
  2,070
Total equity, $m
  143
  160
  177
  195
  213
  233
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  421
  449
  478
  509
  540
  573
  607
  643
  680
  718
  759
  801
  845
  891
  940
  990
  1,043
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  427
  477
  528
  581
  637
  696
  757
  821
  886
  955
  1,027
  1,101
  1,178
  1,258
  1,341
  1,428
  1,519
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,144
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,660
  2,805
  2,955
  3,113
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.590
  0.740
  0.860
  0.960
  1.050
  1.130
  1.200
  1.260
  1.310
  1.360
  1.410
  1.440
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.570
  1.590
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
Free cash flow, $m
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  53
  57
  62
  65
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  174
  183
  192
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.0
  68.8
  57.0
  47.1
  39.0
  32.3
  26.7
  22.1
  18.3
  15.2
  12.6
  10.5
  8.7
  7.2
  6.0
  5.0
  4.2
  3.5
  2.9
  2.4
  2.0
  1.6
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4

Natuzzi S.p.A. (Natuzzi) is engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of contemporary and traditional leather and fabric upholstered furniture. The Company designs, manufactures and sells a collection of couches, armchairs, home furniture and home accessories. The Company operates in two segments: Natuzzi brand and Softaly/Private label. The Natuzzi brand segment includes sales from the Natuzzi Italia, Natuzzi Re-vive and Natuzzi Editions product lines. It offers a range of upholstered furniture for sale, manufactured in production facilities located in Italy and abroad (Romania, Brazil and China). Private label includes its unbranded and Softaly products, and is marketed in North America, Europe, Brazil and Asia-Pacific through a selected number of customers. Natuzzi's range of products includes a collection of sofas and armchairs with particular styles, coverings and functions, with over two million combinations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Natuzzi, S.p.A. (NTZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -26.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.5%
Total Debt to Equity 24.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Return On Total Capital -3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.1%
Return On Equity -3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Effective Tax Rate -250%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $540 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Natuzzi, S.p.A.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Natuzzi, S.p.A.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Natuzzi, S.p.A., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Natuzzi, S.p.A..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Natuzzi, S.p.A..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Natuzzi, S.p.A.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTZ are equal to 23.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Natuzzi, S.p.A. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTZ is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $127.786314526 million for Natuzzi, S.p.A. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.970 million for Natuzzi, S.p.A. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Natuzzi, S.p.A. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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