Intrinsic value of Nuance Communications - NUAN

Previous Close

$15.52

  Intrinsic Value

$13.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-14%

  Value-price divergence*

-24%

Previous close

$15.52

 
Intrinsic value

$13.37

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-24%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NUAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,949
  1,988
  2,034
  2,086
  2,145
  2,210
  2,281
  2,359
  2,443
  2,533
  2,631
  2,735
  2,846
  2,964
  3,089
  3,223
  3,364
  3,513
  3,671
  3,838
  4,015
  4,201
  4,397
  4,604
  4,822
  5,052
  5,293
  5,548
  5,815
  6,097
  6,393
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,923
  1,959
  2,001
  2,047
  2,099
  2,155
  2,217
  2,283
  2,355
  2,432
  2,163
  2,251
  2,344
  2,444
  2,549
  2,661
  2,779
  2,904
  3,036
  3,176
  3,323
  3,478
  3,642
  3,814
  3,996
  4,187
  4,388
  4,600
  4,823
  5,057
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,810
  1,923
  1,959
  2,001
  2,047
  2,099
  2,155
  2,217
  2,283
  2,355
  2,432
  2,163
  2,251
  2,344
  2,444
  2,549
  2,661
  2,779
  2,904
  3,036
  3,176
  3,323
  3,478
  3,642
  3,814
  3,996
  4,187
  4,388
  4,600
  4,823
  5,057
Operating income, $m
  139
  65
  74
  85
  97
  111
  126
  142
  160
  179
  199
  572
  595
  620
  646
  674
  703
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,107
  1,160
  1,216
  1,275
  1,336
EBITDA, $m
  370
  467
  478
  490
  504
  519
  536
  554
  574
  595
  618
  643
  669
  696
  726
  757
  790
  825
  863
  902
  943
  987
  1,033
  1,082
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,303
  1,366
  1,433
  1,502
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  363
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  -20
  -13
  -6
  3
  13
  23
  35
  47
  61
  75
  441
  457
  475
  493
  512
  533
  555
  578
  602
  628
  655
  684
  714
  745
  779
  814
  851
  890
  931
  974
Tax expense, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  6
  9
  13
  16
  20
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
Net income, $m
  -12
  -20
  -13
  -6
  2
  9
  17
  26
  35
  44
  55
  322
  334
  346
  360
  374
  389
  405
  422
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  594
  621
  650
  680
  711

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  581
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,661
  5,177
  5,296
  5,432
  5,585
  5,754
  5,940
  6,142
  6,361
  6,597
  6,851
  7,121
  7,410
  7,718
  8,045
  8,392
  8,760
  9,149
  9,561
  9,996
  10,455
  10,940
  11,451
  11,990
  12,557
  13,155
  13,785
  14,447
  15,144
  15,878
  16,649
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,080
  5,177
  5,296
  5,432
  5,585
  5,754
  5,940
  6,142
  6,361
  6,597
  6,851
  7,121
  7,410
  7,718
  8,045
  8,392
  8,760
  9,149
  9,561
  9,996
  10,455
  10,940
  11,451
  11,990
  12,557
  13,155
  13,785
  14,447
  15,144
  15,878
  16,649
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
Average production assets, $m
  965
  984
  1,007
  1,033
  1,062
  1,094
  1,129
  1,168
  1,209
  1,254
  1,302
  1,354
  1,409
  1,467
  1,529
  1,595
  1,665
  1,739
  1,817
  1,900
  1,987
  2,079
  2,177
  2,279
  2,387
  2,501
  2,620
  2,746
  2,879
  3,018
  3,165
Working capital, $m
  348
  -239
  -244
  -250
  -257
  -265
  -274
  -283
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -356
  -371
  -387
  -404
  -422
  -441
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -528
  -552
  -579
  -606
  -635
  -666
  -698
  -732
  -767
Total debt, $m
  2,433
  2,503
  2,590
  2,690
  2,802
  2,927
  3,063
  3,212
  3,372
  3,545
  3,731
  3,930
  4,142
  4,368
  4,608
  4,863
  5,133
  5,419
  5,721
  6,040
  6,377
  6,733
  7,108
  7,503
  7,920
  8,359
  8,821
  9,307
  9,819
  10,357
  10,923
Total liabilities, $m
  3,730
  3,800
  3,887
  3,987
  4,099
  4,224
  4,360
  4,509
  4,669
  4,842
  5,028
  5,227
  5,439
  5,665
  5,905
  6,160
  6,430
  6,716
  7,018
  7,337
  7,674
  8,030
  8,405
  8,800
  9,217
  9,656
  10,118
  10,604
  11,116
  11,654
  12,220
Total equity, $m
  1,931
  1,377
  1,409
  1,445
  1,486
  1,531
  1,580
  1,634
  1,692
  1,755
  1,822
  1,894
  1,971
  2,053
  2,140
  2,232
  2,330
  2,434
  2,543
  2,659
  2,781
  2,910
  3,046
  3,189
  3,340
  3,499
  3,667
  3,843
  4,028
  4,223
  4,429
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,661
  5,177
  5,296
  5,432
  5,585
  5,755
  5,940
  6,143
  6,361
  6,597
  6,850
  7,121
  7,410
  7,718
  8,045
  8,392
  8,760
  9,150
  9,561
  9,996
  10,455
  10,940
  11,451
  11,989
  12,557
  13,155
  13,785
  14,447
  15,144
  15,877
  16,649
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.260
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.150
  2.180
  2.200
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
  2.370
  2.390
  2.410
  2.420
  2.440
  2.450
  2.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -12
  -20
  -13
  -6
  2
  9
  17
  26
  35
  44
  55
  322
  334
  346
  360
  374
  389
  405
  422
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  594
  621
  650
  680
  711
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  231
  402
  404
  405
  406
  408
  410
  412
  414
  417
  419
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Funds from operations, $m
  710
  382
  390
  399
  409
  418
  427
  438
  449
  461
  474
  393
  408
  423
  440
  458
  476
  496
  517
  539
  562
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  731
  765
  800
  838
  877
Change in working capital, $m
  144
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Cash from operations, $m
  566
  387
  396
  406
  416
  425
  436
  447
  459
  472
  485
  405
  421
  437
  455
  474
  493
  514
  536
  559
  584
  609
  636
  665
  695
  727
  760
  796
  832
  871
  912
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -147
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -263
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -290
  -305
Free cash flow, $m
  303
  317
  322
  327
  333
  338
  343
  349
  356
  364
  372
  286
  295
  305
  316
  328
  340
  353
  367
  381
  397
  413
  430
  449
  468
  488
  510
  532
  556
  581
  608
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  446
  70
  87
  100
  112
  124
  136
  148
  161
  173
  186
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  356
  375
  395
  417
  439
  462
  486
  512
  538
  566
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -683
  48
  45
  42
  38
  36
  32
  28
  24
  18
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -305
  118
  132
  142
  150
  160
  168
  176
  185
  191
  199
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  356
  375
  395
  417
  439
  462
  486
  512
  538
  566
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  434
  454
  469
  483
  498
  512
  526
  541
  555
  570
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  769
  806
  844
  885
  927
  972
  1,019
  1,068
  1,120
  1,174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  334
  -48
  -45
  -42
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  581
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  968
  409
  427
  443
  452
  462
  472
  482
  492
  503
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  804
  842
  882
  924
  969
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  903
  353
  340
  321
  297
  273
  248
  223
  198
  174
  122
  107
  92
  79
  66
  55
  45
  36
  28
  22
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.5
  97.1
  95.9
  94.8
  93.8
  92.9
  92.2
  91.6
  91.2
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9

Nuance Communications, Inc. is a provider of voice recognition and natural language understanding solutions. The Company's segments include Healthcare, Mobile, Enterprise and Imaging. The Healthcare segment provides clinical speech and clinical language understanding solutions. The solutions for the Healthcare segment include transcription solutions, Dragon Medical, and clinical document improvement (CDI) and coding solutions. Its Mobile segment provides a portfolio of specialized virtual assistants and connected services. The Enterprise segment provides automated customer solutions and services. The solutions for the Enterprise segment include On-Premise solutions and services, and On-Demand multichannel cloud. The Imaging segment provides software solutions that help professionals and organizations to gain control of their document and information processes. Imaging segment include multi-function printer (MFP) scan automation solutions and MFP Print automation solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nuance Communications (NUAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -372
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 126%
Total Debt to Equity 126%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Equity -0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Net Profit Margin -0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 700%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 219.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NUAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NUAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1949 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nuance Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Nuance Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NUAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for NUAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nuance Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nuance Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NUAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NUAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Nuance Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nuance Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NUAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NUAN are equal to 49.5%.

Life of production assets of 19.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nuance Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NUAN is equal to -12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1931 million for Nuance Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 284.902 million for Nuance Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nuance Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nuance Wins Two 2017 Speech Industry Awards   [Aug-31-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Malware Attacks Hit Nuance's Results   [Aug-09-17 07:21AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nuance Communications reports 3Q loss   [Aug-08-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nuance Announces Third Quarter 2017 Results   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nuance and Epson Form Strategic Partnership   [Jul-25-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nuance Comments on Malware Incident   [08:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Localytics Names Jude McColgan as CEO   [Jun-22-17 07:15PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Nuance Keeps Seeing Demand Rise   [May-09-17 11:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nuance Communications reports 2Q loss   [04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nuance Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of NUAN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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