Intrinsic value of Novavax, Inc. - NVAX

Previous Close

$4.61

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.61

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NVAX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Variable operating expenses, $m
  585
  599
  614
  631
  650
  671
  693
  718
  744
  773
  797
  829
  864
  900
  939
  980
  1,024
  1,070
  1,118
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,342
  1,405
  1,472
  1,542
  1,616
  1,694
  1,777
  1,863
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  585
  599
  614
  631
  650
  671
  693
  718
  744
  773
  797
  829
  864
  900
  939
  980
  1,024
  1,070
  1,118
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,342
  1,405
  1,472
  1,542
  1,616
  1,694
  1,777
  1,863
Operating income, $m
  -554
  -566
  -581
  -597
  -615
  -634
  -656
  -679
  -704
  -731
  -753
  -784
  -816
  -851
  -888
  -927
  -968
  -1,011
  -1,057
  -1,106
  -1,157
  -1,211
  -1,268
  -1,328
  -1,392
  -1,458
  -1,528
  -1,602
  -1,680
  -1,761
EBITDA, $m
  -541
  -553
  -567
  -583
  -601
  -620
  -642
  -664
  -689
  -715
  -744
  -774
  -806
  -840
  -877
  -915
  -956
  -999
  -1,044
  -1,092
  -1,143
  -1,196
  -1,252
  -1,312
  -1,374
  -1,440
  -1,509
  -1,582
  -1,658
  -1,739
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  17
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  -571
  -571
  -586
  -602
  -620
  -640
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -738
  -761
  -792
  -825
  -860
  -898
  -937
  -979
  -1,023
  -1,070
  -1,120
  -1,172
  -1,227
  -1,284
  -1,345
  -1,410
  -1,477
  -1,549
  -1,624
  -1,702
  -1,785
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -571
  -571
  -586
  -602
  -620
  -640
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -738
  -761
  -792
  -825
  -860
  -898
  -937
  -979
  -1,023
  -1,070
  -1,120
  -1,172
  -1,227
  -1,284
  -1,345
  -1,410
  -1,477
  -1,549
  -1,624
  -1,702
  -1,785

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  194
  198
  204
  209
  216
  223
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
  595
  624
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  194
  198
  204
  209
  216
  223
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
  595
  624
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.165
  0.162
  0.162
  0.163
  0.162
  0.161
  0.165
  0.164
  0.162
  0.163
  0.161
  0.162
  0.163
  0.163
  0.162
  0.165
  0.163
  0.162
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.162
  0.162
  0.163
  0.162
  0.163
  0.163
Average production assets, $m
  70
  72
  73
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
Working capital, $m
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
  -186
Total debt, $m
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  251
  266
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  401
  424
  449
  475
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  179
  183
  188
  194
  200
  207
  215
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  322
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  487
  511
  535
  561
Total equity, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  194
  199
  203
  209
  216
  222
  230
  239
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  493
  517
  541
  568
  594
  623
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.540
  4.640
  4.750
  4.870
  4.990
  5.120
  5.240
  5.370
  5.500
  5.630
  5.760
  5.890
  6.010
  6.130
  6.250
  6.370
  6.480
  6.590
  6.690
  6.790
  6.890
  6.980
  7.080
  7.160
  7.250
  7.330
  7.400
  7.480
  7.550
  7.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -571
  -571
  -586
  -602
  -620
  -640
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -738
  -761
  -792
  -825
  -860
  -898
  -937
  -979
  -1,023
  -1,070
  -1,120
  -1,172
  -1,227
  -1,284
  -1,345
  -1,410
  -1,477
  -1,549
  -1,624
  -1,702
  -1,785
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -558
  -558
  -572
  -589
  -606
  -626
  -648
  -671
  -696
  -723
  -752
  -782
  -815
  -850
  -886
  -926
  -967
  -1,011
  -1,057
  -1,106
  -1,157
  -1,211
  -1,268
  -1,329
  -1,392
  -1,459
  -1,529
  -1,603
  -1,681
  -1,763
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  -557
  -557
  -571
  -587
  -605
  -624
  -645
  -668
  -693
  -720
  -749
  -779
  -811
  -846
  -883
  -921
  -963
  -1,006
  -1,052
  -1,100
  -1,152
  -1,206
  -1,262
  -1,322
  -1,385
  -1,452
  -1,522
  -1,596
  -1,673
  -1,754
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Free cash flow, $m
  -565
  -565
  -580
  -596
  -614
  -634
  -656
  -680
  -705
  -732
  -761
  -792
  -826
  -861
  -898
  -938
  -980
  -1,024
  -1,071
  -1,120
  -1,172
  -1,227
  -1,285
  -1,346
  -1,410
  -1,478
  -1,549
  -1,624
  -1,703
  -1,786
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -230
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  805
  572
  586
  603
  621
  641
  663
  686
  712
  739
  762
  793
  826
  862
  899
  939
  981
  1,025
  1,072
  1,121
  1,173
  1,228
  1,286
  1,348
  1,412
  1,480
  1,551
  1,626
  1,705
  1,788
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  575
  576
  591
  608
  627
  647
  670
  693
  720
  748
  771
  803
  836
  873
  911
  951
  994
  1,039
  1,087
  1,136
  1,189
  1,245
  1,304
  1,367
  1,432
  1,501
  1,573
  1,650
  1,730
  1,814
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -805
  -572
  -586
  -603
  -621
  -641
  -663
  -686
  -712
  -739
  -762
  -793
  -826
  -862
  -899
  -939
  -981
  -1,025
  -1,072
  -1,121
  -1,173
  -1,228
  -1,286
  -1,348
  -1,412
  -1,480
  -1,551
  -1,626
  -1,705
  -1,788
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -682
  -561
  -575
  -591
  -609
  -628
  -649
  -672
  -697
  -724
  -752
  -783
  -815
  -850
  -886
  -925
  -966
  -1,010
  -1,056
  -1,104
  -1,156
  -1,210
  -1,267
  -1,327
  -1,390
  -1,457
  -1,527
  -1,601
  -1,678
  -1,760
Discount rate, %
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.30
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.24
  23.36
  24.52
  25.75
  27.04
  28.39
  29.81
  31.30
  32.87
  34.51
  36.23
  38.05
  39.95
  41.95
  44.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -616
  -453
  -412
  -370
  -330
  -291
  -254
  -219
  -186
  -156
  -128
  -104
  -83
  -65
  -50
  -37
  -27
  -19
  -14
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  1.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage vaccine company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants. The Company operates through developing recombinant vaccines segment. The Company, through its recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology, produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and newly emerging diseases. The Company's product pipeline focuses on a range of infectious diseases with vaccine candidates in clinical development for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and the Ebola virus (EBOV). The Company's lead adjuvant for human applications, Matrix-M, is in a Phase I/II clinical trial for pandemic influenza H7N9 vaccine candidate. It is also testing Matrix-M in conjunction with its EBOV vaccine candidate in a Phase I clinical trial. It is developing additional pre-clinical stage programs in a range of infectious diseases, including Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.5
Price to Sales 83.4
Price to Book -208.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -58.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity -5266.7%
Total Debt to Equity -5266.7%
Interest Coverage -46
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -70.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.1%
Return On Total Capital -92.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.6%
Return On Equity -195.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
EBITDA Margin -1766.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -813.6%
Operating Margin -1793.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -832.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -1866.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -856.8%
Net Profit Margin -1866.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -856.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NVAX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NVAX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $31 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Novavax, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Novavax, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NVAX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.7%, whose default value for NVAX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Novavax, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Novavax, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NVAX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1851.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NVAX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Novavax, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Novavax, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NVAX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NVAX are equal to 221.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Novavax, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NVAX is equal to -183.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-101.732 million for Novavax, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 382.843 million for Novavax, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Novavax, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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