Intrinsic value of Neovasc - NVCN

Previous Close

$1.86

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.86

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NVCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
Total operating expenses, $m
  40
  40
  42
  43
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  87
  89
Operating income, $m
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
EBITDA, $m
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -35
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -35
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.208
  0.240
  0.231
  0.231
  0.222
  0.214
  0.241
  0.233
  0.226
  0.219
  0.235
  0.229
  0.222
  0.237
  0.225
  0.220
  0.233
  0.222
  0.234
  0.224
  0.231
  0.222
  0.228
  0.220
  0.226
  0.231
  0.221
  0.225
  0.227
  0.228
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Working capital, $m
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Total debt, $m
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
Total equity, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24
  24
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  46
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  68
  71
  74
  79
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -6.830
  -6.470
  -6.090
  -5.670
  -5.240
  -4.800
  -4.340
  -3.880
  -3.420
  -2.960
  -2.510
  -2.060
  -1.620
  -1.190
  -0.770
  -0.360
  0.040
  0.430
  0.800
  1.160
  1.510
  1.840
  2.160
  2.470
  2.770
  3.050
  3.330
  3.590
  3.840
  4.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -35
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -34
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -37
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  74
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -74
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -72
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -68
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.3
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Neovasc Inc. (Neovasc) is a specialty medical device company. The Company develops, manufactures and markets products for the cardiovascular marketplace. The Company's segment is the development, manufacture and marketing of medical devices. Its products include the Tiara technology in development for the transcatheter treatment of mitral valve disease, the Neovasc Reducer for the treatment of refractory angina, and tissue products. The Tiara is in preclinical/early clinical stage development to provide a minimally invasive transcatheter device for patients experiencing mitral regurgitation (MR) as a result of mitral heart valve disease. The Reducer is an hourglass-shaped, balloon-expandable, stainless steel, bare metal device, which is implanted in the coronary sinus, creating a restriction in venous outflow from the myocardium (the muscular layer of the heart wall). Neovasc produces Peripatch, a biological tissue product that is manufactured from pericardium.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Neovasc (NVCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NVCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NVCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5.389014 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Neovasc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Neovasc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NVCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for NVCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Neovasc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Neovasc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NVCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 200%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NVCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Neovasc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Neovasc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NVCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NVCN are equal to 32.7%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Neovasc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NVCN is equal to -386.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-36.475101 million for Neovasc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1777.79 million for Neovasc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Neovasc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Healthcare Stocks To Watch On Tuesday   [Oct-23-18 11:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Why Neovasc Stock (NVCN) Is Skyrocketing Today   [Oct-10-18 03:23PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Neovasc Announces Effective Date of Share Consolidation   [Sep-18-18 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neovasc: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Neovasc Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Biotechnology Stocks Trending on New Developments 2018   [Aug-06-18 10:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Tiara and Reducer Featured at CSI Frankfurt 2018   [Jul-02-18 07:35AM  CNW Group]
▶ Should You Snap up Medical Device Stock Neovasc Now?   [Jun-27-18 05:42AM  Investopedia]
▶ Tiara Featured in Live Case at 11th Annual TVT 2018   [Jun-21-18 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Loss-Making Neovasc Inc (NASDAQ:NVCN) Expected To Breakeven   [Jun-07-18 06:50AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Neovasc: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Neovasc Announces Results for the First Quarter 2018   [May-10-18 04:05PM  CNW Group]
▶ Neovasc Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is Neovasc Inc (NASDAQ:NVCN) A Buy At Its Current PE Ratio?   [Mar-16-18 06:46AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ TSX Companies Insiders Are Buying   [Feb-28-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Neovasc Reports Tiara's Clinical Case Load Accelerating   [Jan-08-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neovasc Reducer Featured in Live Case at ICI 2017   [Dec-06-17 07:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ At $0.99, Is Neovasc Inc (TSX:NVCN) A Buy?   [Nov-16-17 09:33AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Neovasc reports 3Q loss   [05:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Neovasc Announces Results for the Third Quarter of 2017   [Nov-14-17 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neovasc to Host Third Quarter 2017 Conference Call   [Nov-10-17 02:56PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neovasc Provides Litigation Update   [Nov-03-17 02:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neovasc Provides Litigation Update   [02:44PM  CNW Group]
▶ Dilution Ahead For Neovasc Inc (TSX:NVCN) Shareholders?   [Oct-04-17 08:04AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Neovasc Provides Tiara Clinical Update   [Sep-12-17 07:00AM  CNW Group]

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