Intrinsic value of Navigator Holdings - NVGS

Previous Close

$11.93

  Intrinsic Value

$4.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

Previous close

$11.93

 
Intrinsic value

$4.34

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NVGS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  305
  312
  320
  329
  339
  349
  361
  374
  388
  403
  419
  436
  454
  473
  494
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  644
  674
  705
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
Variable operating expenses, $m
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  687
  721
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  687
  721
Operating income, $m
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
EBITDA, $m
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  47
  47
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Net income, $m
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,857
  1,900
  1,949
  2,003
  2,064
  2,131
  2,203
  2,282
  2,367
  2,457
  2,555
  2,658
  2,769
  2,886
  3,010
  3,142
  3,282
  3,430
  3,586
  3,751
  3,924
  4,108
  4,301
  4,505
  4,719
  4,945
  5,182
  5,433
  5,696
  5,972
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,857
  1,900
  1,949
  2,003
  2,064
  2,131
  2,203
  2,282
  2,367
  2,457
  2,555
  2,658
  2,769
  2,886
  3,010
  3,142
  3,282
  3,430
  3,586
  3,751
  3,924
  4,108
  4,301
  4,505
  4,719
  4,945
  5,182
  5,433
  5,696
  5,972
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
Average production assets, $m
  1,718
  1,757
  1,802
  1,853
  1,909
  1,971
  2,038
  2,111
  2,189
  2,273
  2,363
  2,459
  2,561
  2,669
  2,785
  2,907
  3,036
  3,172
  3,317
  3,469
  3,630
  3,799
  3,978
  4,167
  4,365
  4,574
  4,794
  5,025
  5,268
  5,524
Working capital, $m
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
Total debt, $m
  879
  899
  922
  948
  977
  1,008
  1,042
  1,079
  1,119
  1,162
  1,208
  1,256
  1,308
  1,364
  1,422
  1,484
  1,550
  1,620
  1,693
  1,771
  1,853
  1,939
  2,030
  2,126
  2,227
  2,333
  2,445
  2,563
  2,687
  2,817
Total liabilities, $m
  875
  895
  918
  944
  972
  1,004
  1,038
  1,075
  1,115
  1,157
  1,203
  1,252
  1,304
  1,359
  1,418
  1,480
  1,546
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,848
  1,935
  2,026
  2,122
  2,223
  2,329
  2,441
  2,559
  2,683
  2,813
Total equity, $m
  982
  1,005
  1,031
  1,060
  1,092
  1,127
  1,166
  1,207
  1,252
  1,300
  1,351
  1,406
  1,465
  1,527
  1,593
  1,662
  1,736
  1,814
  1,897
  1,984
  2,076
  2,173
  2,275
  2,383
  2,496
  2,616
  2,742
  2,874
  3,013
  3,159
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,857
  1,900
  1,949
  2,004
  2,064
  2,131
  2,204
  2,282
  2,367
  2,457
  2,554
  2,658
  2,769
  2,886
  3,011
  3,142
  3,282
  3,429
  3,586
  3,751
  3,924
  4,108
  4,301
  4,505
  4,719
  4,945
  5,183
  5,433
  5,696
  5,972
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
Funds from operations, $m
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  324
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  102
  104
  107
  111
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  266
  278
  292
  306
  321
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -105
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -440
  -462
  -486
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  73
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  20
  23
  28
  33
  37
  42
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  106
  113
  120
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  7
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -8
  -15
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
Discount rate, %
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -7
  -13
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.7
  99.2
  98.3
  97.3
  96.0
  94.6
  93.1
  91.4
  89.7
  87.9
  86.0
  84.1
  82.1
  80.1
  78.2
  76.2
  74.2
  72.2
  70.3
  68.4
  66.5
  64.6
  62.8
  61.0
  59.2
  57.5
  55.8

Navigator Holdings Ltd. is an owner and operator of a fleet of handysize liquefied gas carriers. The Company provides international and regional seaborne transportation services of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemical gases and ammonia. As of December 31, 2016, it had 33 semi- or fully-refrigerated handysize liquefied gas carriers. Its handysize liquefied gas carriers are liquefied gas carriers with capabilities between 15,000 and 24,999 cubic meter (cbm). Its handysize liquefied gas carriers can accommodate medium- and long-haul routes. In addition, it had four midsize 37,300 cbm ethylene-capable semi-refrigerated liquefied gas carriers as of December 31, 2016. Its midsize ethylene-capable semi-refrigerated gas carriers enable long-haul transportation of ethane/ethylene. As of December 31, 2016, it also had one 38,000 cbm fully refrigerated gas carrier. The Company carries LPG for international energy companies, state-owned utilities and commodities traders.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navigator Holdings (NVGS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.7
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 67.1%
Total Debt to Equity 77.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.3%
EBITDA Margin 46.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.8%
Operating Margin 26.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Net Profit Margin 15.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Effective Tax Rate 2.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

NVGS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NVGS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298.595 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navigator Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Navigator Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NVGS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for NVGS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navigator Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navigator Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NVGS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NVGS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Navigator Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navigator Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NVGS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NVGS are equal to 564%.

Life of production assets of 22.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navigator Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NVGS is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $963.213 million for Navigator Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.53 million for Navigator Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navigator Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Navigator Holdings: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigator Holdings Ltd. - Fixed Income Investor Meetings   [Oct-08-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Navigator Holdings Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Navigator Holdings: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigator Holdings Ltd. Announces 2018 Annual Meeting   [Jul-30-18 02:06PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Sec. Ross Says Navigator Holdings Wasn't a Typical Short Sell   [Jun-21-18 08:29AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Clarification: Commerce Secretary-Russian Company story   [Jun-20-18 03:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ After query, Ross shorted stock in Kremlin-tied firm: report   [Jun-19-18 09:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trading Ahead of the News   [11:19AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Navigator Holdings: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigator Holdings Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-06-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Navigator Holdings beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-05-18 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tanker Stocks In Focus At Morgan Stanley   [Feb-13-18 02:28PM  Benzinga]
▶ Commerce secretary to sell stake in firm with Russian ties   [Nov-08-17 07:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigator Holdings reports 3Q loss   [05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Correction: Commerce Secretary-Russian Gas Shipments story   [Nov-07-17 01:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Wilbur Ross Didnt Disclose Business Ties to Putin Inner Circle   [Nov-05-17 11:50PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Navigator Holdings misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:00AM  Associated Press]

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