Intrinsic value of Northwest Natural Gas - NWN

Previous Close

$68.10

  Intrinsic Value

$24.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

Previous close

$68.10

 
Intrinsic value

$24.67

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NWN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  777
  795
  816
  839
  864
  892
  922
  955
  991
  1,029
  1,069
  1,113
  1,159
  1,208
  1,260
  1,315
  1,374
  1,436
  1,501
  1,570
  1,643
  1,720
  1,800
  1,886
  1,975
  2,070
  2,169
  2,274
  2,384
  2,500
Variable operating expenses, $m
  582
  596
  611
  628
  647
  668
  691
  715
  742
  771
  801
  833
  868
  905
  944
  985
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,176
  1,230
  1,288
  1,349
  1,412
  1,480
  1,550
  1,625
  1,703
  1,786
  1,873
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  582
  596
  611
  628
  647
  668
  691
  715
  742
  771
  801
  833
  868
  905
  944
  985
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,176
  1,230
  1,288
  1,349
  1,412
  1,480
  1,550
  1,625
  1,703
  1,786
  1,873
Operating income, $m
  195
  200
  205
  211
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  412
  432
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
  571
  598
  628
EBITDA, $m
  283
  289
  296
  305
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  374
  389
  404
  421
  439
  458
  478
  499
  522
  545
  571
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  752
  788
  826
  866
  909
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  78
  83
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  178
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  292
  310
Earnings before tax, $m
  149
  151
  153
  156
  158
  161
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  183
  188
  192
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  228
  235
  242
  250
  258
  267
  276
  286
  296
  306
  317
Tax expense, $m
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
Net income, $m
  109
  110
  112
  114
  115
  118
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  201
  208
  216
  224
  232

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,097
  3,169
  3,250
  3,341
  3,443
  3,554
  3,675
  3,806
  3,947
  4,098
  4,261
  4,433
  4,618
  4,813
  5,021
  5,241
  5,474
  5,720
  5,980
  6,255
  6,545
  6,851
  7,173
  7,513
  7,870
  8,247
  8,643
  9,060
  9,499
  9,961
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,097
  3,169
  3,250
  3,341
  3,443
  3,554
  3,675
  3,806
  3,947
  4,098
  4,261
  4,433
  4,618
  4,813
  5,021
  5,241
  5,474
  5,720
  5,980
  6,255
  6,545
  6,851
  7,173
  7,513
  7,870
  8,247
  8,643
  9,060
  9,499
  9,961
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
Average production assets, $m
  2,298
  2,351
  2,411
  2,479
  2,554
  2,637
  2,727
  2,824
  2,929
  3,041
  3,161
  3,289
  3,426
  3,571
  3,725
  3,889
  4,061
  4,244
  4,437
  4,641
  4,856
  5,083
  5,322
  5,574
  5,839
  6,119
  6,413
  6,722
  7,048
  7,390
Working capital, $m
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
Total debt, $m
  902
  956
  1,017
  1,087
  1,163
  1,247
  1,339
  1,438
  1,544
  1,659
  1,781
  1,912
  2,051
  2,199
  2,356
  2,523
  2,699
  2,885
  3,082
  3,289
  3,509
  3,740
  3,983
  4,240
  4,510
  4,795
  5,095
  5,410
  5,742
  6,091
Total liabilities, $m
  2,342
  2,395
  2,457
  2,526
  2,603
  2,687
  2,778
  2,877
  2,984
  3,098
  3,221
  3,352
  3,491
  3,639
  3,796
  3,962
  4,138
  4,324
  4,521
  4,729
  4,948
  5,179
  5,423
  5,680
  5,950
  6,235
  6,534
  6,850
  7,181
  7,530
Total equity, $m
  756
  773
  793
  815
  840
  867
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,040
  1,082
  1,127
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,672
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,109
  2,211
  2,318
  2,430
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,098
  3,168
  3,250
  3,341
  3,443
  3,554
  3,675
  3,806
  3,947
  4,098
  4,261
  4,434
  4,618
  4,813
  5,021
  5,241
  5,474
  5,720
  5,980
  6,255
  6,545
  6,851
  7,173
  7,513
  7,870
  8,247
  8,643
  9,061
  9,499
  9,960
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.190
  1.240
  1.280
  1.330
  1.380
  1.440
  1.490
  1.550
  1.600
  1.660
  1.710
  1.770
  1.820
  1.870
  1.920
  1.970
  2.020
  2.070
  2.110
  2.160
  2.200
  2.240
  2.280
  2.310
  2.350
  2.380
  2.420
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  110
  112
  114
  115
  118
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  201
  208
  216
  224
  232
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Funds from operations, $m
  196
  200
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  230
  236
  243
  251
  259
  267
  276
  286
  296
  307
  318
  330
  343
  356
  370
  385
  400
  417
  434
  452
  471
  492
  513
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  195
  198
  202
  206
  211
  216
  221
  227
  234
  241
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  326
  338
  351
  365
  379
  395
  411
  428
  445
  464
  484
  505
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -326
  -342
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -373
  -391
  -412
  -432
  -454
  -477
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -582
  -610
Free cash flow, $m
  64
  58
  52
  47
  41
  36
  31
  26
  22
  17
  12
  7
  2
  -3
  -8
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -106
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  54
  62
  69
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  54
  62
  69
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  108
  112
  114
  116
  118
  120
  123
  126
  128
  131
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  184
  191
  197
  204
  211
  218
  226
  235
  243
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  95
  95
  94
  94
  93
  93
  93
  94
  94
  94
  95
  96
  97
  98
  99
  100
  101
  103
  104
  106
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  127
  131
Discount rate, %
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  89
  81
  74
  67
  60
  54
  47
  42
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Northwest Natural Gas Company (NW Natural) is engaged in the distribution of natural gas. The Company's segments include Local Gas Distribution, Gas Storage and other. The Company maintains operations in Oregon, Washington and California and conducts businesses through NW Natural and its subsidiaries. The local gas distribution business, referred to as the utility segment, serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Oregon and southwest Washington. The Company's gas storage business, referred to as the gas storage segment, provides storage services for utilities, gas marketers, electric generators and industrial users from storage facilities located in Oregon and California. The Company's other segment is referred to as non-utility and consists of non-utility investments and other business activities. The other segment consists of an equity method investment in Trail West Holdings, LLC (TWH) and other pipeline assets in NNG Financial Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northwest Natural Gas (NWN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 79.9%
Total Debt to Equity 90.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Operating Margin 20.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 41%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 88.1%

NWN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NWN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $762.173 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northwest Natural Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Northwest Natural Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NWN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for NWN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northwest Natural Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northwest Natural Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NWN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NWN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Northwest Natural Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northwest Natural Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NWN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NWN are equal to 295.6%.

Life of production assets of 26.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northwest Natural Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NWN is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $742.776 million for Northwest Natural Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.8 million for Northwest Natural Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northwest Natural Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Northwest Natural Gas Company to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Jul-05-18 05:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NW Natural Signs Agreement to Sell Gill Ranch Storage LLC   [Jun-22-18 06:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 09:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ NW Natural chipping in $75,000 for new homeless shelter, related services   [Apr-23-18 05:43PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Apr-05-18 05:56PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top Rated NYSE Utilities Dividend Stocks   [Mar-08-18 07:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Jan-12-18 04:47PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Oregon regulators say tax cut could mean savings for utility customers   [Dec-30-17 12:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Unknown but Amazing Dividend Stocks   [Nov-17-17 09:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas reports 3Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ NW Natural Increases Dividend for 62nd Consecutive Year   [Oct-05-17 05:33PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 09:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Top Dividend-Growing Utilities Stocks   [Jul-12-17 02:44PM  Market Realist]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Jul-06-17 06:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Apr-06-17 07:57PM  GlobeNewswire]

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