Intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors N.V. - NXPI

Previous Close

$96.99

  Intrinsic Value

$48.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-50%

Previous close

$96.99

 
Intrinsic value

$48.24

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NXPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 28.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  9,595
  9,816
  10,068
  10,351
  10,665
  11,009
  11,384
  11,790
  12,228
  12,697
  13,199
  13,734
  14,305
  14,911
  15,554
  16,236
  16,957
  17,720
  18,527
  19,378
  20,276
  21,223
  22,222
  23,274
  24,382
  25,548
  26,776
  28,068
  29,428
  30,858
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,022
  9,198
  9,401
  9,628
  9,879
  10,155
  10,455
  10,781
  11,131
  11,507
  10,577
  11,006
  11,463
  11,949
  12,465
  13,011
  13,589
  14,200
  14,847
  15,529
  16,248
  17,008
  17,808
  18,651
  19,539
  20,474
  21,458
  22,493
  23,582
  24,728
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,022
  9,198
  9,401
  9,628
  9,879
  10,155
  10,455
  10,781
  11,131
  11,507
  10,577
  11,006
  11,463
  11,949
  12,465
  13,011
  13,589
  14,200
  14,847
  15,529
  16,248
  17,008
  17,808
  18,651
  19,539
  20,474
  21,458
  22,493
  23,582
  24,728
Operating income, $m
  574
  617
  668
  724
  786
  855
  929
  1,010
  1,096
  1,190
  2,622
  2,728
  2,842
  2,962
  3,090
  3,225
  3,368
  3,520
  3,680
  3,849
  4,028
  4,216
  4,414
  4,623
  4,843
  5,075
  5,319
  5,575
  5,846
  6,130
EBITDA, $m
  3,073
  3,143
  3,224
  3,315
  3,415
  3,525
  3,646
  3,776
  3,916
  4,066
  4,227
  4,398
  4,581
  4,775
  4,981
  5,199
  5,430
  5,675
  5,933
  6,205
  6,493
  6,796
  7,116
  7,453
  7,808
  8,181
  8,574
  8,988
  9,424
  9,881
Interest expense (income), $m
  348
  397
  408
  421
  436
  453
  472
  493
  515
  540
  566
  595
  625
  657
  691
  728
  767
  808
  851
  897
  946
  997
  1,051
  1,108
  1,169
  1,232
  1,299
  1,369
  1,443
  1,521
  1,603
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  210
  247
  288
  333
  382
  436
  494
  557
  623
  2,027
  2,103
  2,184
  2,270
  2,362
  2,458
  2,561
  2,669
  2,783
  2,903
  3,030
  3,164
  3,306
  3,454
  3,611
  3,776
  3,950
  4,132
  4,325
  4,527
Tax expense, $m
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  103
  118
  133
  150
  168
  547
  568
  590
  613
  638
  664
  691
  721
  751
  784
  818
  854
  893
  933
  975
  1,020
  1,066
  1,116
  1,168
  1,222
Net income, $m
  129
  153
  180
  210
  243
  279
  318
  361
  406
  455
  1,480
  1,535
  1,595
  1,657
  1,724
  1,795
  1,869
  1,948
  2,031
  2,119
  2,212
  2,310
  2,413
  2,522
  2,636
  2,757
  2,883
  3,017
  3,157
  3,304

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  21,418
  21,910
  22,473
  23,106
  23,806
  24,575
  25,412
  26,318
  27,294
  28,341
  29,462
  30,657
  31,930
  33,283
  34,719
  36,241
  37,851
  39,555
  41,354
  43,254
  45,259
  47,374
  49,602
  51,951
  54,424
  57,028
  59,769
  62,653
  65,687
  68,879
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  21,418
  21,910
  22,473
  23,106
  23,806
  24,575
  25,412
  26,318
  27,294
  28,341
  29,462
  30,657
  31,930
  33,283
  34,719
  36,241
  37,851
  39,555
  41,354
  43,254
  45,259
  47,374
  49,602
  51,951
  54,424
  57,028
  59,769
  62,653
  65,687
  68,879
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
Average production assets, $m
  9,566
  9,786
  10,038
  10,320
  10,633
  10,976
  11,350
  11,755
  12,191
  12,659
  13,159
  13,693
  14,262
  14,866
  15,508
  16,187
  16,907
  17,667
  18,471
  19,320
  20,215
  21,160
  22,155
  23,204
  24,309
  25,472
  26,696
  27,984
  29,340
  30,765
Working capital, $m
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  194
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  525
Total debt, $m
  7,549
  7,795
  8,077
  8,393
  8,743
  9,127
  9,546
  9,999
  10,487
  11,011
  11,571
  12,169
  12,805
  13,482
  14,200
  14,960
  15,766
  16,617
  17,517
  18,467
  19,470
  20,527
  21,641
  22,815
  24,052
  25,354
  26,724
  28,166
  29,684
  31,279
Total liabilities, $m
  10,709
  10,955
  11,237
  11,553
  11,903
  12,287
  12,706
  13,159
  13,647
  14,171
  14,731
  15,329
  15,965
  16,642
  17,360
  18,120
  18,926
  19,777
  20,677
  21,627
  22,630
  23,687
  24,801
  25,975
  27,212
  28,514
  29,884
  31,326
  32,844
  34,439
Total equity, $m
  10,709
  10,955
  11,237
  11,553
  11,903
  12,287
  12,706
  13,159
  13,647
  14,171
  14,731
  15,329
  15,965
  16,642
  17,360
  18,120
  18,926
  19,777
  20,677
  21,627
  22,630
  23,687
  24,801
  25,975
  27,212
  28,514
  29,884
  31,326
  32,844
  34,439
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21,418
  21,910
  22,474
  23,106
  23,806
  24,574
  25,412
  26,318
  27,294
  28,342
  29,462
  30,658
  31,930
  33,284
  34,720
  36,240
  37,852
  39,554
  41,354
  43,254
  45,260
  47,374
  49,602
  51,950
  54,424
  57,028
  59,768
  62,652
  65,688
  68,878
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  129
  153
  180
  210
  243
  279
  318
  361
  406
  455
  1,480
  1,535
  1,595
  1,657
  1,724
  1,795
  1,869
  1,948
  2,031
  2,119
  2,212
  2,310
  2,413
  2,522
  2,636
  2,757
  2,883
  3,017
  3,157
  3,304
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,499
  2,526
  2,557
  2,591
  2,629
  2,671
  2,717
  2,766
  2,819
  2,876
  1,605
  1,670
  1,739
  1,813
  1,891
  1,974
  2,062
  2,155
  2,253
  2,356
  2,465
  2,580
  2,702
  2,830
  2,964
  3,106
  3,256
  3,413
  3,578
  3,752
Funds from operations, $m
  2,628
  2,679
  2,737
  2,801
  2,872
  2,950
  3,035
  3,127
  3,225
  3,331
  3,085
  3,205
  3,334
  3,470
  3,615
  3,769
  3,931
  4,103
  4,284
  4,475
  4,677
  4,890
  5,115
  5,352
  5,601
  5,863
  6,139
  6,429
  6,735
  7,056
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  2,625
  2,675
  2,732
  2,796
  2,867
  2,944
  3,029
  3,120
  3,218
  3,323
  3,076
  3,196
  3,324
  3,460
  3,604
  3,757
  3,919
  4,090
  4,270
  4,461
  4,662
  4,874
  5,098
  5,334
  5,582
  5,843
  6,118
  6,407
  6,712
  7,032
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,144
  -1,167
  -1,193
  -1,224
  -1,259
  -1,297
  -1,339
  -1,384
  -1,434
  -1,487
  -1,544
  -1,605
  -1,670
  -1,739
  -1,813
  -1,891
  -1,974
  -2,062
  -2,155
  -2,253
  -2,356
  -2,465
  -2,580
  -2,702
  -2,830
  -2,964
  -3,106
  -3,256
  -3,413
  -3,578
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -220
  -252
  -282
  -313
  -343
  -374
  -405
  -436
  -468
  -501
  -534
  -569
  -604
  -641
  -680
  -719
  -761
  -804
  -849
  -896
  -944
  -995
  -1,049
  -1,105
  -1,163
  -1,224
  -1,288
  -1,355
  -1,426
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,332
  -1,387
  -1,445
  -1,506
  -1,572
  -1,640
  -1,713
  -1,789
  -1,870
  -1,955
  -2,045
  -2,139
  -2,239
  -2,343
  -2,454
  -2,571
  -2,693
  -2,823
  -2,959
  -3,102
  -3,252
  -3,409
  -3,575
  -3,751
  -3,935
  -4,127
  -4,330
  -4,544
  -4,768
  -5,004
Free cash flow, $m
  1,293
  1,289
  1,287
  1,290
  1,295
  1,304
  1,316
  1,331
  1,348
  1,369
  1,032
  1,057
  1,086
  1,116
  1,150
  1,186
  1,225
  1,267
  1,312
  1,360
  1,411
  1,465
  1,522
  1,583
  1,647
  1,715
  1,787
  1,864
  1,944
  2,028
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  195
  246
  282
  316
  350
  384
  418
  453
  488
  524
  560
  598
  637
  677
  718
  761
  805
  852
  900
  950
  1,002
  1,057
  1,114
  1,174
  1,237
  1,302
  1,370
  1,442
  1,517
  1,596
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  75
  93
  102
  106
  107
  105
  100
  92
  82
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  270
  339
  384
  422
  457
  489
  518
  545
  570
  593
  560
  598
  637
  677
  718
  761
  805
  852
  900
  950
  1,002
  1,057
  1,114
  1,174
  1,237
  1,302
  1,370
  1,442
  1,517
  1,596
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,563
  1,628
  1,670
  1,712
  1,753
  1,794
  1,835
  1,876
  1,918
  1,961
  1,592
  1,655
  1,722
  1,793
  1,868
  1,947
  2,031
  2,119
  2,212
  2,310
  2,413
  2,522
  2,636
  2,757
  2,884
  3,017
  3,158
  3,306
  3,461
  3,624
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -204
  -246
  -282
  -316
  -350
  -384
  -418
  -453
  -488
  -524
  -560
  -598
  -637
  -677
  -718
  -761
  -805
  -852
  -900
  -950
  -1,002
  -1,057
  -1,114
  -1,174
  -1,237
  -1,302
  -1,370
  -1,442
  -1,517
  -1,596
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,359
  1,382
  1,389
  1,396
  1,403
  1,409
  1,416
  1,423
  1,430
  1,437
  1,032
  1,057
  1,086
  1,116
  1,150
  1,186
  1,225
  1,267
  1,312
  1,360
  1,411
  1,465
  1,522
  1,583
  1,647
  1,715
  1,787
  1,864
  1,944
  2,028
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,303
  1,265
  1,209
  1,149
  1,087
  1,023
  957
  890
  822
  754
  490
  451
  413
  375
  338
  301
  267
  233
  202
  173
  146
  122
  100
  81
  64
  50
  38
  29
  21
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.7
  99.4
  99.1
  98.7
  98.4
  98.1
  97.8
  97.5
  97.3
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXP) is a holding company. The Company operates as a semiconductor company. The Company provides high performance mixed signal and standard product solutions. The Company's segments are High Performance Mixed Signal (HPMS), Standard Products (SP), and Corporate and Other. Its product solutions are used in a range of end-market applications, including automotive, personal security and identification, wireless and wireline infrastructure, mobile communications, multi-market industrial, consumer and computing. It engages with global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and sells products in all geographic regions. NXP's HPMS segment includes business lines, such as Automotive, Secure Identification Solutions (SIS), Secure Connected Devices (SCD), and Secure Interfaces and Infrastructure (SI&I). The Company's SP segment supplies a range of standard semiconductor components, such as small signal discretes and power discretes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 162.6
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 55.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 80.2%
Total Debt to Equity 84%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
Operating Margin -1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 141.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NXPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NXPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9407 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NXP Semiconductors N.V.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of NXP Semiconductors N.V.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NXPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NXPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NXP Semiconductors N.V., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NXP Semiconductors N.V..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NXPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NXPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for NXP Semiconductors N.V..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NXP Semiconductors N.V.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NXPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NXPI are equal to 99.7%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NXP Semiconductors N.V. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NXPI is equal to 1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10505 million for NXP Semiconductors N.V. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 292.782 million for NXP Semiconductors N.V. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NXP Semiconductors N.V. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $28.4 billion.

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