Intrinsic value of New York Times Cl A - NYT

Previous Close

$21.90

  Intrinsic Value

$12.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$21.90

 
Intrinsic value

$12.98

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.52
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,555
  1,648
  1,746
  1,847
  1,953
  2,063
  2,179
  2,299
  2,425
  2,557
  2,694
  2,839
  2,989
  3,147
  3,313
  3,486
  3,667
  3,858
  4,057
  4,266
  4,485
  4,715
  4,955
  5,208
  5,473
  5,751
  6,043
  6,349
  6,670
  7,007
  7,361
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,506
  1,594
  1,686
  1,781
  1,881
  1,986
  2,095
  2,209
  2,328
  2,453
  2,570
  2,706
  2,849
  2,999
  3,156
  3,320
  3,492
  3,673
  3,862
  4,060
  4,268
  4,486
  4,715
  4,955
  5,207
  5,471
  5,748
  6,038
  6,344
  6,664
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,454
  1,506
  1,594
  1,686
  1,781
  1,881
  1,986
  2,095
  2,209
  2,328
  2,453
  2,570
  2,706
  2,849
  2,999
  3,156
  3,320
  3,492
  3,673
  3,862
  4,060
  4,268
  4,486
  4,715
  4,955
  5,207
  5,471
  5,748
  6,038
  6,344
  6,664
Operating income, $m
  102
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  446
  469
  493
  518
  545
  572
  601
  632
  663
  697
EBITDA, $m
  164
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  493
  519
  545
  573
  603
  634
  666
  700
  735
  773
  812
  853
  896
  941
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  28
  38
  47
  57
  68
  79
  90
  102
  115
  128
  141
  155
  170
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  276
  297
  318
  341
  365
  390
  416
  444
  472
  503
  534
  568
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  114
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  129
  129
  129
  129
  129
Tax expense, $m
  5
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
Net income, $m
  29
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,185
  1,733
  1,835
  1,942
  2,053
  2,170
  2,291
  2,418
  2,550
  2,688
  2,833
  2,985
  3,143
  3,309
  3,483
  3,666
  3,856
  4,056
  4,266
  4,486
  4,716
  4,957
  5,211
  5,476
  5,755
  6,047
  6,354
  6,676
  7,014
  7,368
  7,740
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,635
  1,733
  1,835
  1,942
  2,053
  2,170
  2,291
  2,418
  2,550
  2,688
  2,833
  2,985
  3,143
  3,309
  3,483
  3,666
  3,856
  4,056
  4,266
  4,486
  4,716
  4,957
  5,211
  5,476
  5,755
  6,047
  6,354
  6,676
  7,014
  7,368
  7,740
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
Average production assets, $m
  620
  656
  695
  735
  777
  821
  867
  915
  965
  1,018
  1,072
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
  1,460
  1,535
  1,615
  1,698
  1,785
  1,876
  1,972
  2,073
  2,178
  2,289
  2,405
  2,527
  2,655
  2,789
  2,930
Working capital, $m
  397
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -418
  -440
  -462
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -564
  -592
  -622
  -654
  -687
  -721
Total debt, $m
  247
  328
  411
  499
  590
  685
  784
  888
  996
  1,109
  1,228
  1,352
  1,481
  1,617
  1,759
  1,908
  2,064
  2,228
  2,399
  2,579
  2,768
  2,965
  3,172
  3,390
  3,618
  3,857
  4,108
  4,371
  4,647
  4,937
  5,241
Total liabilities, $m
  1,338
  1,418
  1,501
  1,589
  1,680
  1,775
  1,874
  1,978
  2,086
  2,199
  2,318
  2,442
  2,571
  2,707
  2,849
  2,998
  3,154
  3,318
  3,489
  3,669
  3,858
  4,055
  4,262
  4,480
  4,708
  4,947
  5,198
  5,461
  5,737
  6,027
  6,331
Total equity, $m
  848
  315
  334
  353
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  489
  516
  543
  572
  602
  634
  667
  702
  738
  776
  816
  858
  902
  948
  997
  1,047
  1,101
  1,156
  1,215
  1,276
  1,341
  1,409
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,186
  1,733
  1,835
  1,942
  2,054
  2,170
  2,291
  2,418
  2,550
  2,688
  2,834
  2,985
  3,143
  3,309
  3,483
  3,665
  3,856
  4,056
  4,265
  4,485
  4,716
  4,957
  5,210
  5,477
  5,755
  6,048
  6,354
  6,676
  7,013
  7,368
  7,740
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.291
  1.040
  1.230
  1.410
  1.580
  1.730
  1.880
  2.020
  2.150
  2.270
  2.380
  2.490
  2.590
  2.680
  2.780
  2.860
  2.940
  3.020
  3.090
  3.160
  3.220
  3.290
  3.350
  3.400
  3.450
  3.500
  3.550
  3.600
  3.640
  3.680
  3.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  83
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
  94
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  200
  211
  221
  232
  244
Funds from operations, $m
  80
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  187
  192
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  228
  235
  242
  250
  258
  266
  275
  285
  294
  305
  315
  327
  338
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  94
  161
  164
  168
  172
  176
  180
  185
  190
  194
  200
  201
  207
  213
  219
  226
  233
  240
  247
  255
  264
  272
  282
  291
  301
  312
  323
  335
  347
  360
  373
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
Cash from investing activities, $m
  128
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -339
  -355
  -373
Free cash flow, $m
  222
  72
  71
  70
  69
  67
  66
  65
  63
  62
  60
  55
  53
  51
  49
  47
  45
  43
  40
  38
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  16
  12
  8
  4
  0
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -190
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -201
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  153
  154
  157
  160
  162
  165
  168
  171
  175
  178
  179
  183
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  212
  217
  223
  230
  236
  244
  251
  259
  267
  276
  285
  294
  304
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  686
  136
  138
  139
  141
  143
  145
  147
  150
  152
  151
  154
  157
  160
  163
  166
  170
  173
  177
  182
  186
  190
  195
  200
  206
  211
  217
  223
  230
  236
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  658
  124
  120
  115
  109
  104
  98
  92
  86
  80
  72
  66
  60
  54
  48
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The New York Times Company is a media company focused on creating, collecting and distributing news and information. The Company's principal business consists of distributing content generated by its newsroom through its print, Web and mobile platforms. In addition, it distributes selected content on third-party platforms. The Company includes newspapers, print and digital products and investments. The Company's businesses include newspapers, such as The New York Times (The Times); Websites, including NYTimes.com; mobile applications, including The Times's news applications, as well as interest-specific applications, such as NYT Cooking, Crossword and others, and related businesses, such as The Times news services division, product review and recommendation Websites The Wirecutter and The Sweethome, digital archive distribution, NYT Live (its live events business) and other products and services under The Times brand.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York Times Cl A (NYT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 121.7
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 55.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.1%
Total Debt to Equity 29.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 89.7%

NYT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1555 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York Times Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New York Times Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NYT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York Times Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York Times Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for New York Times Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York Times Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYT are equal to 39.8%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York Times Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYT is equal to -9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $848 million for New York Times Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 164.324 million for New York Times Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York Times Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Trump allegedly made derogatory remarks about immigrants   [Dec-23-17 05:08PM  ABC News Videos]
▶ Author Janet Elder, a top editor at The New York Times, dies at 61   [Dec-21-17 02:13PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ The Post Review: Vibrant, Vital and Essential   [01:04AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ New York Times Company Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Inside the New York Times' Digital Subscription Machine   [Dec-15-17 06:29AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Retiring New York Times publisher to be replaced by his son   [Dec-14-17 07:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ A.G. Sulzberger to takeover as New York Times publisher at year end   [03:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NY Times CEO on Global Expansion, Digital Initiatives   [Dec-05-17 06:21PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Essay: The Nazi Next Door   [Nov-28-17 03:33PM  Fortune]
▶ The New York Times to Launch Monthly Kids' Section   [Nov-12-17 04:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How do the people of China view Trump?   [Nov-10-17 06:36PM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ 2 Stocks Trading Lower After Earnings   [Nov-09-17 05:26PM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of NYT
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