Intrinsic value of New York Times Cl A - NYT

Previous Close

$26.30

  Intrinsic Value

$6.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$26.30

 
Intrinsic value

$6.44

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,709
  1,748
  1,793
  1,844
  1,900
  1,961
  2,028
  2,100
  2,178
  2,262
  2,351
  2,446
  2,548
  2,656
  2,771
  2,892
  3,021
  3,156
  3,300
  3,452
  3,612
  3,780
  3,958
  4,146
  4,343
  4,551
  4,770
  5,000
  5,242
  5,497
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,589
  1,625
  1,667
  1,713
  1,765
  1,821
  1,883
  1,950
  2,021
  2,098
  2,166
  2,254
  2,348
  2,447
  2,553
  2,665
  2,783
  2,908
  3,041
  3,181
  3,328
  3,483
  3,647
  3,820
  4,002
  4,193
  4,395
  4,607
  4,830
  5,065
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,589
  1,625
  1,667
  1,713
  1,765
  1,821
  1,883
  1,950
  2,021
  2,098
  2,166
  2,254
  2,348
  2,447
  2,553
  2,665
  2,783
  2,908
  3,041
  3,181
  3,328
  3,483
  3,647
  3,820
  4,002
  4,193
  4,395
  4,607
  4,830
  5,065
Operating income, $m
  120
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
EBITDA, $m
  192
  196
  201
  207
  213
  220
  228
  236
  244
  254
  264
  275
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  617
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
Earnings before tax, $m
  100
  101
  102
  104
  105
  107
  109
  110
  112
  115
  131
  133
  136
  139
  141
  144
  148
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  190
  195
  201
  207
Tax expense, $m
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
Net income, $m
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79
  81
  82
  84
  96
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,064
  2,112
  2,166
  2,227
  2,294
  2,368
  2,449
  2,536
  2,630
  2,731
  2,839
  2,955
  3,077
  3,208
  3,346
  3,493
  3,648
  3,812
  3,986
  4,169
  4,362
  4,566
  4,781
  5,007
  5,245
  5,496
  5,760
  6,038
  6,331
  6,638
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,064
  2,112
  2,166
  2,227
  2,294
  2,368
  2,449
  2,536
  2,630
  2,731
  2,839
  2,955
  3,077
  3,208
  3,346
  3,493
  3,648
  3,812
  3,986
  4,169
  4,362
  4,566
  4,781
  5,007
  5,245
  5,496
  5,760
  6,038
  6,331
  6,638
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
  0.828
Average production assets, $m
  702
  719
  737
  758
  781
  806
  833
  863
  895
  930
  966
  1,006
  1,047
  1,092
  1,139
  1,189
  1,241
  1,297
  1,356
  1,419
  1,484
  1,554
  1,627
  1,704
  1,785
  1,870
  1,960
  2,055
  2,154
  2,259
Working capital, $m
  -161
  -164
  -169
  -173
  -179
  -184
  -191
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -340
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -408
  -428
  -448
  -470
  -493
  -517
Total debt, $m
  274
  302
  334
  370
  411
  455
  502
  554
  610
  670
  734
  803
  876
  953
  1,035
  1,122
  1,215
  1,312
  1,415
  1,524
  1,639
  1,760
  1,887
  2,022
  2,163
  2,312
  2,469
  2,634
  2,808
  2,991
Total liabilities, $m
  1,226
  1,254
  1,287
  1,323
  1,363
  1,407
  1,455
  1,507
  1,563
  1,622
  1,687
  1,755
  1,828
  1,905
  1,988
  2,075
  2,167
  2,264
  2,367
  2,476
  2,591
  2,712
  2,840
  2,974
  3,116
  3,265
  3,422
  3,587
  3,760
  3,943
Total equity, $m
  838
  857
  879
  904
  932
  962
  994
  1,030
  1,068
  1,109
  1,153
  1,200
  1,249
  1,302
  1,359
  1,418
  1,481
  1,548
  1,618
  1,693
  1,771
  1,854
  1,941
  2,033
  2,130
  2,231
  2,339
  2,452
  2,570
  2,695
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,064
  2,111
  2,166
  2,227
  2,295
  2,369
  2,449
  2,537
  2,631
  2,731
  2,840
  2,955
  3,077
  3,207
  3,347
  3,493
  3,648
  3,812
  3,985
  4,169
  4,362
  4,566
  4,781
  5,007
  5,246
  5,496
  5,761
  6,039
  6,330
  6,638
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79
  81
  82
  84
  96
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  145
  147
  150
  152
  155
  158
  162
  166
  170
  174
  175
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  209
  216
  224
  232
  240
  248
  258
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from operations, $m
  148
  151
  154
  157
  160
  164
  168
  173
  177
  182
  183
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  229
  237
  246
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  360
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -268
  -282
Free cash flow, $m
  77
  77
  76
  76
  75
  75
  75
  75
  74
  74
  70
  70
  70
  71
  71
  71
  71
  72
  72
  72
  73
  73
  74
  74
  75
  76
  77
  77
  78
  79
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  105
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  126
  130
  134
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  181
  188
  194
  201
  209
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  160
  86
  87
  87
  88
  89
  90
  91
  92
  93
  91
  92
  94
  95
  97
  99
  100
  102
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  154
  79
  75
  72
  68
  65
  61
  57
  53
  49
  43
  39
  36
  32
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The New York Times Company is a media company focused on creating, collecting and distributing news and information. The Company's principal business consists of distributing content generated by its newsroom through its print, Web and mobile platforms. In addition, it distributes selected content on third-party platforms. The Company includes newspapers, print and digital products and investments. The Company's businesses include newspapers, such as The New York Times (The Times); Websites, including NYTimes.com; mobile applications, including The Times's news applications, as well as interest-specific applications, such as NYT Cooking, Crossword and others, and related businesses, such as The Times news services division, product review and recommendation Websites The Wirecutter and The Sweethome, digital archive distribution, NYT Live (its live events business) and other products and services under The Times brand.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York Times Cl A (NYT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 146.1
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 45.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 66.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.1%
Total Debt to Equity 29.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 89.7%

NYT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1675.639 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York Times Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of New York Times Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NYT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York Times Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York Times Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for New York Times Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York Times Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYT are equal to 41.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York Times Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYT is equal to -9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $897.279 million for New York Times Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 164.086 million for New York Times Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York Times Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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