Intrinsic value of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - ODFL

Previous Close

$142.04

  Intrinsic Value

$169.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+19%

Previous close

$142.04

 
Intrinsic value

$169.00

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ODFL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.44
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  4,659
  5,319
  6,025
  6,774
  7,566
  8,400
  9,275
  10,192
  11,149
  12,147
  13,186
  14,267
  15,392
  16,560
  17,775
  19,037
  20,349
  21,712
  23,130
  24,605
  26,141
  27,739
  29,405
  31,141
  32,952
  34,840
  36,812
  38,871
  41,022
  43,270
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,019
  3,446
  3,903
  4,388
  4,901
  5,441
  6,008
  6,601
  7,221
  7,867
  8,538
  9,239
  9,967
  10,723
  11,510
  12,327
  13,176
  14,059
  14,977
  15,933
  16,927
  17,962
  19,041
  20,165
  21,337
  22,560
  23,837
  25,170
  26,563
  28,019
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  633
  647
  661
  675
  690
  705
  721
  737
  753
  769
  786
  804
  821
  839
  858
  877
  896
  916
  936
  957
  978
  999
  1,021
  1,044
  1,067
  1,090
  1,114
  1,138
  1,164
  1,189
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,652
  4,093
  4,564
  5,063
  5,591
  6,146
  6,729
  7,338
  7,974
  8,636
  9,324
  10,043
  10,788
  11,562
  12,368
  13,204
  14,072
  14,975
  15,913
  16,890
  17,905
  18,961
  20,062
  21,209
  22,404
  23,650
  24,951
  26,308
  27,727
  29,208
Operating income, $m
  1,008
  1,226
  1,461
  1,710
  1,975
  2,254
  2,547
  2,854
  3,175
  3,510
  3,861
  4,225
  4,604
  4,998
  5,407
  5,833
  6,276
  6,737
  7,217
  7,716
  8,236
  8,778
  9,343
  9,933
  10,548
  11,190
  11,861
  12,562
  13,296
  14,062
EBITDA, $m
  1,273
  1,530
  1,804
  2,096
  2,405
  2,731
  3,074
  3,433
  3,808
  4,200
  4,608
  5,033
  5,475
  5,936
  6,414
  6,911
  7,429
  7,967
  8,527
  9,110
  9,717
  10,349
  11,009
  11,697
  12,414
  13,164
  13,946
  14,764
  15,619
  16,513
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  2
  10
  17
  25
  34
  43
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  108
  120
  133
  147
  161
  176
  191
  206
  223
  240
  258
  276
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  405
  429
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,005
  1,217
  1,444
  1,685
  1,941
  2,210
  2,494
  2,791
  3,101
  3,425
  3,765
  4,117
  4,483
  4,864
  5,260
  5,672
  6,101
  6,546
  7,010
  7,493
  7,996
  8,521
  9,067
  9,637
  10,233
  10,854
  11,503
  12,182
  12,891
  13,633
Tax expense, $m
  271
  329
  390
  455
  524
  597
  673
  754
  837
  925
  1,017
  1,112
  1,210
  1,313
  1,420
  1,531
  1,647
  1,768
  1,893
  2,023
  2,159
  2,301
  2,448
  2,602
  2,763
  2,931
  3,106
  3,289
  3,481
  3,681
Net income, $m
  734
  888
  1,054
  1,230
  1,417
  1,614
  1,820
  2,037
  2,264
  2,501
  2,749
  3,005
  3,273
  3,551
  3,840
  4,141
  4,453
  4,779
  5,117
  5,470
  5,837
  6,220
  6,619
  7,035
  7,470
  7,923
  8,397
  8,893
  9,410
  9,952

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,083
  4,662
  5,280
  5,937
  6,631
  7,362
  8,129
  8,932
  9,771
  10,646
  11,557
  12,504
  13,490
  14,514
  15,578
  16,684
  17,834
  19,029
  20,272
  21,565
  22,910
  24,312
  25,771
  27,293
  28,880
  30,535
  32,263
  34,068
  35,953
  37,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,083
  4,662
  5,280
  5,937
  6,631
  7,362
  8,129
  8,932
  9,771
  10,646
  11,557
  12,504
  13,490
  14,514
  15,578
  16,684
  17,834
  19,029
  20,272
  21,565
  22,910
  24,312
  25,771
  27,293
  28,880
  30,535
  32,263
  34,068
  35,953
  37,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
  1.141
Average production assets, $m
  2,982
  3,404
  3,856
  4,335
  4,842
  5,376
  5,936
  6,523
  7,135
  7,774
  8,439
  9,131
  9,851
  10,599
  11,376
  12,184
  13,023
  13,896
  14,803
  15,747
  16,730
  17,753
  18,819
  19,930
  21,089
  22,298
  23,560
  24,877
  26,254
  27,693
Working capital, $m
  182
  207
  235
  264
  295
  328
  362
  397
  435
  474
  514
  556
  600
  646
  693
  742
  794
  847
  902
  960
  1,019
  1,082
  1,147
  1,215
  1,285
  1,359
  1,436
  1,516
  1,600
  1,688
Total debt, $m
  176
  318
  469
  629
  798
  977
  1,164
  1,360
  1,564
  1,778
  2,000
  2,231
  2,472
  2,722
  2,981
  3,251
  3,532
  3,823
  4,127
  4,442
  4,770
  5,112
  5,468
  5,840
  6,227
  6,631
  7,052
  7,493
  7,953
  8,433
Total liabilities, $m
  996
  1,138
  1,288
  1,449
  1,618
  1,796
  1,984
  2,179
  2,384
  2,598
  2,820
  3,051
  3,291
  3,541
  3,801
  4,071
  4,351
  4,643
  4,946
  5,262
  5,590
  5,932
  6,288
  6,659
  7,047
  7,451
  7,872
  8,312
  8,772
  9,253
Total equity, $m
  3,087
  3,524
  3,992
  4,488
  5,013
  5,566
  6,146
  6,753
  7,387
  8,048
  8,737
  9,453
  10,198
  10,973
  11,777
  12,613
  13,482
  14,386
  15,325
  16,303
  17,320
  18,380
  19,483
  20,633
  21,833
  23,084
  24,391
  25,755
  27,180
  28,670
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,083
  4,662
  5,280
  5,937
  6,631
  7,362
  8,130
  8,932
  9,771
  10,646
  11,557
  12,504
  13,489
  14,514
  15,578
  16,684
  17,833
  19,029
  20,271
  21,565
  22,910
  24,312
  25,771
  27,292
  28,880
  30,535
  32,263
  34,067
  35,952
  37,923
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756
  0.756

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  734
  888
  1,054
  1,230
  1,417
  1,614
  1,820
  2,037
  2,264
  2,501
  2,749
  3,005
  3,273
  3,551
  3,840
  4,141
  4,453
  4,779
  5,117
  5,470
  5,837
  6,220
  6,619
  7,035
  7,470
  7,923
  8,397
  8,893
  9,410
  9,952
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  266
  303
  343
  386
  430
  478
  527
  579
  633
  690
  747
  808
  872
  938
  1,007
  1,078
  1,152
  1,230
  1,310
  1,394
  1,481
  1,571
  1,665
  1,764
  1,866
  1,973
  2,085
  2,202
  2,323
  2,451
Funds from operations, $m
  999
  1,192
  1,397
  1,616
  1,847
  2,091
  2,348
  2,616
  2,897
  3,190
  3,495
  3,814
  4,145
  4,489
  4,847
  5,219
  5,606
  6,009
  6,427
  6,864
  7,318
  7,791
  8,285
  8,799
  9,336
  9,897
  10,482
  11,094
  11,734
  12,403
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
Cash from operations, $m
  976
  1,166
  1,370
  1,586
  1,816
  2,059
  2,314
  2,581
  2,860
  3,152
  3,455
  3,771
  4,101
  4,443
  4,799
  5,170
  5,555
  5,955
  6,372
  6,806
  7,258
  7,729
  8,220
  8,731
  9,265
  9,823
  10,405
  11,014
  11,650
  12,315
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -264
  -301
  -341
  -384
  -429
  -476
  -525
  -577
  -631
  -688
  -747
  -808
  -872
  -938
  -1,007
  -1,078
  -1,152
  -1,230
  -1,310
  -1,394
  -1,481
  -1,571
  -1,665
  -1,764
  -1,866
  -1,973
  -2,085
  -2,202
  -2,323
New CAPEX, $m
  -392
  -423
  -451
  -480
  -507
  -534
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -639
  -665
  -692
  -720
  -748
  -777
  -808
  -839
  -873
  -908
  -944
  -983
  -1,023
  -1,066
  -1,111
  -1,159
  -1,209
  -1,262
  -1,318
  -1,377
  -1,439
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -621
  -687
  -752
  -821
  -891
  -963
  -1,036
  -1,111
  -1,190
  -1,270
  -1,353
  -1,439
  -1,528
  -1,620
  -1,715
  -1,815
  -1,917
  -2,025
  -2,138
  -2,254
  -2,377
  -2,504
  -2,637
  -2,776
  -2,923
  -3,075
  -3,235
  -3,403
  -3,579
  -3,762
Free cash flow, $m
  354
  479
  617
  766
  926
  1,096
  1,278
  1,469
  1,670
  1,881
  2,102
  2,332
  2,573
  2,823
  3,084
  3,355
  3,637
  3,930
  4,235
  4,552
  4,882
  5,225
  5,582
  5,955
  6,343
  6,748
  7,170
  7,611
  8,072
  8,553
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  131
  141
  151
  160
  169
  178
  187
  196
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  280
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  440
  460
  481
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  131
  141
  151
  160
  169
  178
  187
  196
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  280
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  440
  460
  481
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  486
  620
  768
  926
  1,095
  1,275
  1,465
  1,665
  1,875
  2,095
  2,324
  2,564
  2,813
  3,073
  3,344
  3,625
  3,918
  4,222
  4,538
  4,867
  5,210
  5,567
  5,939
  6,326
  6,730
  7,152
  7,592
  8,051
  8,532
  9,034
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -406
  -438
  -467
  -496
  -525
  -553
  -580
  -607
  -634
  -661
  -689
  -716
  -745
  -774
  -805
  -836
  -869
  -903
  -940
  -977
  -1,017
  -1,059
  -1,104
  -1,150
  -1,200
  -1,252
  -1,306
  -1,364
  -1,425
  -1,490
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  79
  183
  300
  430
  570
  722
  885
  1,058
  1,241
  1,434
  1,635
  1,847
  2,068
  2,299
  2,539
  2,789
  3,049
  3,318
  3,599
  3,890
  4,193
  4,508
  4,835
  5,176
  5,531
  5,900
  6,285
  6,687
  7,106
  7,544
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  76
  167
  261
  354
  442
  524
  598
  661
  713
  752
  777
  788
  786
  772
  745
  709
  663
  611
  554
  494
  434
  374
  317
  264
  215
  172
  135
  103
  78
  57
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a union-free motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional and national less-than-truckload (LTL) services. The Company's LTL services include ground and air expedited transportation for time-sensitive shipments, consumer household pickup and delivery and freight delivery services throughout North America. In addition to its LTL services, the Company offers a range of other value-added services that include container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply chain consulting and warehousing. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 226 service center locations, of which it owned 182 and leased 44. As of December 31, 2016, its network included 10 breakbulk facilities located in Rialto, California; Atlanta, Georgia; Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis, Indiana; Greensboro, North Carolina; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Memphis and Morristown, Tennessee; Dallas, Texas, and Salt Lake City, Utah. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned 7,994 tractors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.6
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 79.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.7%
Total Debt to Equity 5.7%
Interest Coverage 81
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Total Capital 15.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Return On Equity 16.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 87.3%
EBITDA Margin 22.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 0%

ODFL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ODFL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4044 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ODFL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ODFL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ODFL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $619 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ODFL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ODFL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ODFL are equal to 64%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ODFL is equal to 3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2680.483 million for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.164 million for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.5 billion.

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