Intrinsic value of Omega Healthcare Investors - OHI

Previous Close

$27.91

  Intrinsic Value

$7.31

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$27.91

 
Intrinsic value

$7.31

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OHI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OHI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.10
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  901
  929
  959
  993
  1,029
  1,067
  1,109
  1,153
  1,200
  1,250
  1,303
  1,360
  1,420
  1,483
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,775
  1,858
  1,945
  2,038
  2,135
  2,237
  2,345
  2,458
  2,577
  2,702
  2,834
  2,973
  3,119
  3,272
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  347
  357
  367
  378
  389
  402
  415
  430
  445
  461
  414
  433
  452
  472
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  681
  714
  749
  785
  823
  863
  906
  950
  997
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  401
  413
  424
  437
  449
  463
  478
  495
  511
  529
  484
  504
  525
  547
  571
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  739
  772
  808
  845
  883
  924
  966
  1,012
  1,058
  1,108
Operating income, $m
  510
  527
  547
  569
  592
  618
  645
  674
  706
  739
  774
  876
  916
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,209
  1,268
  1,330
  1,395
  1,464
  1,537
  1,613
  1,694
  1,778
  1,868
  1,961
  2,060
  2,164
EBITDA, $m
  777
  840
  869
  899
  932
  968
  1,006
  1,047
  1,091
  1,138
  1,188
  1,240
  1,296
  1,356
  1,418
  1,485
  1,555
  1,629
  1,707
  1,789
  1,876
  1,967
  2,063
  2,165
  2,272
  2,384
  2,502
  2,627
  2,758
  2,895
  3,040
Interest expense (income), $m
  148
  162
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  283
  297
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  398
  419
  440
  462
  486
  511
  537
  564
  593
  624
Earnings before tax, $m
  384
  366
  380
  396
  412
  430
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  631
  659
  689
  720
  754
  789
  826
  866
  907
  951
  997
  1,046
  1,097
  1,151
  1,208
  1,268
  1,331
  1,397
  1,467
  1,540
Tax expense, $m
  1
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
Net income, $m
  366
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  461
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  603
  632
  662
  694
  728
  763
  801
  840
  882
  925
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,124

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,949
  9,107
  9,407
  9,732
  10,084
  10,463
  10,868
  11,302
  11,765
  12,257
  12,779
  13,333
  13,921
  14,542
  15,199
  15,893
  16,625
  17,398
  18,213
  19,071
  19,976
  20,929
  21,931
  22,987
  24,098
  25,266
  26,495
  27,787
  29,146
  30,574
  32,075
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,855
  9,107
  9,407
  9,732
  10,084
  10,463
  10,868
  11,302
  11,765
  12,257
  12,779
  13,333
  13,921
  14,542
  15,199
  15,893
  16,625
  17,398
  18,213
  19,071
  19,976
  20,929
  21,931
  22,987
  24,098
  25,266
  26,495
  27,787
  29,146
  30,574
  32,075
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  6,033
  6,220
  6,425
  6,647
  6,887
  7,146
  7,423
  7,719
  8,035
  8,371
  8,728
  9,107
  9,508
  9,932
  10,381
  10,855
  11,355
  11,883
  12,439
  13,026
  13,643
  14,294
  14,979
  15,700
  16,459
  17,256
  18,096
  18,978
  19,906
  20,882
  21,907
Working capital, $m
  0
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
Total debt, $m
  4,367
  4,514
  4,686
  4,873
  5,075
  5,293
  5,526
  5,776
  6,042
  6,324
  6,625
  6,944
  7,281
  7,639
  8,016
  8,415
  8,836
  9,281
  9,749
  10,243
  10,763
  11,311
  11,888
  12,495
  13,133
  13,805
  14,512
  15,255
  16,036
  16,857
  17,720
Total liabilities, $m
  5,091
  5,237
  5,409
  5,596
  5,798
  6,016
  6,249
  6,499
  6,765
  7,047
  7,348
  7,667
  8,004
  8,362
  8,739
  9,138
  9,559
  10,004
  10,472
  10,966
  11,486
  12,034
  12,611
  13,218
  13,856
  14,528
  15,235
  15,978
  16,759
  17,580
  18,443
Total equity, $m
  3,859
  3,871
  3,998
  4,136
  4,286
  4,447
  4,619
  4,803
  5,000
  5,209
  5,431
  5,667
  5,916
  6,180
  6,459
  6,754
  7,066
  7,394
  7,740
  8,105
  8,490
  8,895
  9,321
  9,769
  10,242
  10,738
  11,260
  11,810
  12,387
  12,994
  13,632
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,950
  9,108
  9,407
  9,732
  10,084
  10,463
  10,868
  11,302
  11,765
  12,256
  12,779
  13,334
  13,920
  14,542
  15,198
  15,892
  16,625
  17,398
  18,212
  19,071
  19,976
  20,929
  21,932
  22,987
  24,098
  25,266
  26,495
  27,788
  29,146
  30,574
  32,075
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.132
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  366
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  461
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  603
  632
  662
  694
  728
  763
  801
  840
  882
  925
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,124
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  267
  313
  321
  330
  340
  350
  361
  373
  386
  399
  413
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  724
  759
  796
  835
  876
Funds from operations, $m
  584
  580
  599
  619
  641
  664
  689
  716
  745
  775
  808
  825
  861
  900
  941
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,130
  1,183
  1,240
  1,300
  1,363
  1,429
  1,499
  1,572
  1,649
  1,731
  1,816
  1,906
  2,001
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  626
  583
  602
  622
  644
  668
  693
  721
  750
  781
  813
  831
  868
  907
  948
  992
  1,038
  1,087
  1,138
  1,192
  1,250
  1,310
  1,373
  1,440
  1,510
  1,584
  1,662
  1,744
  1,830
  1,921
  2,017
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -241
  -249
  -257
  -266
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -335
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -546
  -572
  -599
  -628
  -658
  -690
  -724
  -759
  -796
  -835
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,029
  -187
  -205
  -222
  -240
  -259
  -277
  -296
  -316
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -449
  -474
  -500
  -528
  -556
  -586
  -618
  -651
  -685
  -721
  -759
  -798
  -839
  -883
  -928
  -976
  -1,025
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,114
  -428
  -454
  -479
  -506
  -534
  -563
  -593
  -625
  -657
  -692
  -728
  -765
  -804
  -846
  -889
  -934
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,084
  -1,139
  -1,197
  -1,257
  -1,320
  -1,387
  -1,456
  -1,529
  -1,607
  -1,687
  -1,772
  -1,860
Free cash flow, $m
  -488
  155
  149
  143
  138
  134
  131
  128
  125
  123
  122
  103
  102
  102
  102
  103
  104
  105
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  156
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  827
  147
  172
  187
  202
  218
  233
  249
  266
  283
  300
  319
  338
  357
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  863
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,050
  147
  172
  187
  202
  218
  233
  249
  266
  283
  300
  319
  338
  357
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  863
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  562
  301
  321
  330
  341
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  422
  440
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  575
  602
  631
  661
  693
  727
  762
  800
  839
  881
  925
  971
  1,019
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -121
  -106
  -127
  -138
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -184
  -197
  -209
  -222
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -522
  -549
  -577
  -607
  -638
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  290
  194
  192
  191
  191
  191
  193
  194
  197
  200
  186
  190
  195
  201
  207
  213
  221
  229
  237
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  267
  163
  147
  131
  117
  103
  91
  79
  68
  58
  45
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. is a self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company maintains a portfolio of long-term healthcare facilities and mortgages on healthcare facilities located in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates through the segment, which consists of investments in healthcare-related real estate properties. It provides lease or mortgage financing to qualified operators of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and assisted living facilities (ALFs), independent living facilities, rehabilitation and acute care facilities. Its portfolio consists of long-term leases and mortgage agreements. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio of investments included 996 healthcare facilities located in 42 states and the United Kingdom and operated by 79 third-party operators. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of 809 SNFs, 101 ALFs, 16 specialty facilities, one medical office building, fixed rate mortgages on 44 SNFs and two ALFs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 124.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 99%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.2%
Total Debt to Equity 113.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 88.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.1%
Operating Margin 56.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 42.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Net Profit Margin 40.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 129.5%

OHI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OHI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $901 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Omega Healthcare Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Omega Healthcare Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OHI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for OHI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Omega Healthcare Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Omega Healthcare Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OHI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OHI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Omega Healthcare Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Omega Healthcare Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OHI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OHI are equal to 669.6%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Omega Healthcare Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OHI is equal to -10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3859 million for Omega Healthcare Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 197.205 million for Omega Healthcare Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Omega Healthcare Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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Financial statements of OHI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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