Intrinsic value of Oceaneering International - OII

Previous Close

$25.26

  Intrinsic Value

$3.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$25.26

 
Intrinsic value

$3.05

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,960
  2,005
  2,057
  2,114
  2,178
  2,249
  2,325
  2,408
  2,498
  2,593
  2,696
  2,805
  2,922
  3,046
  3,177
  3,316
  3,464
  3,620
  3,784
  3,958
  4,142
  4,335
  4,539
  4,754
  4,980
  5,219
  5,469
  5,733
  6,011
  6,303
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,624
  1,660
  1,702
  1,748
  1,800
  1,857
  1,918
  1,985
  2,057
  2,134
  2,171
  2,259
  2,353
  2,453
  2,559
  2,671
  2,789
  2,915
  3,047
  3,187
  3,335
  3,491
  3,655
  3,828
  4,011
  4,202
  4,404
  4,617
  4,841
  5,076
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  331
  338
  346
  353
  361
  369
  377
  386
  394
  403
  412
  421
  430
  439
  449
  459
  469
  479
  490
  501
  512
  523
  534
  546
  558
  571
  583
  596
  609
  622
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,955
  1,998
  2,048
  2,101
  2,161
  2,226
  2,295
  2,371
  2,451
  2,537
  2,583
  2,680
  2,783
  2,892
  3,008
  3,130
  3,258
  3,394
  3,537
  3,688
  3,847
  4,014
  4,189
  4,374
  4,569
  4,773
  4,987
  5,213
  5,450
  5,698
Operating income, $m
  5
  6
  9
  13
  17
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  113
  126
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  225
  247
  270
  295
  321
  349
  379
  411
  446
  482
  520
  561
  605
EBITDA, $m
  237
  243
  250
  259
  270
  282
  297
  312
  330
  349
  370
  392
  417
  443
  472
  502
  535
  570
  607
  646
  688
  733
  781
  831
  885
  942
  1,002
  1,066
  1,133
  1,204
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -8
  45
  53
  62
  73
  84
  96
  109
  124
  139
  156
  174
  193
  214
  237
  260
  286
  313
  342
  373
  406
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  85
  92
  101
  110
Net income, $m
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -8
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  80
  90
  102
  114
  127
  141
  156
  173
  190
  209
  228
  250
  272
  296

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,082
  3,153
  3,234
  3,325
  3,425
  3,536
  3,656
  3,787
  3,927
  4,078
  4,239
  4,411
  4,594
  4,789
  4,996
  5,214
  5,446
  5,691
  5,950
  6,224
  6,512
  6,816
  7,137
  7,475
  7,831
  8,205
  8,600
  9,015
  9,451
  9,911
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,082
  3,153
  3,234
  3,325
  3,425
  3,536
  3,656
  3,787
  3,927
  4,078
  4,239
  4,411
  4,594
  4,789
  4,996
  5,214
  5,446
  5,691
  5,950
  6,224
  6,512
  6,816
  7,137
  7,475
  7,831
  8,205
  8,600
  9,015
  9,451
  9,911
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
Average production assets, $m
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,561
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,871
  1,947
  2,028
  2,114
  2,205
  2,302
  2,404
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,009
  3,150
  3,299
  3,456
  3,622
  3,796
  3,979
  4,172
  4,374
Working capital, $m
  327
  335
  343
  353
  364
  376
  388
  402
  417
  433
  450
  469
  488
  509
  531
  554
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  724
  758
  794
  832
  872
  913
  957
  1,004
  1,053
Total debt, $m
  817
  849
  886
  927
  972
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,199
  1,267
  1,339
  1,417
  1,500
  1,587
  1,681
  1,779
  1,884
  1,994
  2,111
  2,234
  2,364
  2,502
  2,646
  2,799
  2,959
  3,128
  3,306
  3,493
  3,690
  3,897
Total liabilities, $m
  1,390
  1,422
  1,458
  1,499
  1,545
  1,595
  1,649
  1,708
  1,771
  1,839
  1,912
  1,989
  2,072
  2,160
  2,253
  2,352
  2,456
  2,567
  2,684
  2,807
  2,937
  3,074
  3,219
  3,371
  3,532
  3,701
  3,878
  4,066
  4,263
  4,470
Total equity, $m
  1,692
  1,731
  1,775
  1,825
  1,880
  1,941
  2,007
  2,079
  2,156
  2,239
  2,327
  2,422
  2,522
  2,629
  2,743
  2,863
  2,990
  3,124
  3,267
  3,417
  3,575
  3,742
  3,918
  4,104
  4,299
  4,505
  4,721
  4,949
  5,189
  5,441
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,082
  3,153
  3,233
  3,324
  3,425
  3,536
  3,656
  3,787
  3,927
  4,078
  4,239
  4,411
  4,594
  4,789
  4,996
  5,215
  5,446
  5,691
  5,951
  6,224
  6,512
  6,816
  7,137
  7,475
  7,831
  8,206
  8,599
  9,015
  9,452
  9,911
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -8
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  80
  90
  102
  114
  127
  141
  156
  173
  190
  209
  228
  250
  272
  296
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  232
  236
  241
  247
  253
  259
  267
  275
  283
  292
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
  571
  599
Funds from operations, $m
  194
  198
  204
  211
  220
  230
  241
  254
  268
  284
  289
  306
  323
  343
  363
  385
  409
  434
  461
  490
  521
  553
  588
  625
  664
  705
  748
  795
  844
  895
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Cash from operations, $m
  188
  191
  196
  202
  209
  218
  229
  240
  253
  268
  272
  287
  304
  322
  341
  362
  384
  408
  434
  461
  490
  521
  554
  589
  626
  665
  707
  751
  797
  847
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -183
  -186
  -191
  -196
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -221
  -229
  -237
  -247
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -545
  -571
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -210
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -481
  -503
  -528
  -554
  -581
  -609
  -638
  -670
  -703
  -738
  -774
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -37
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -13
  -7
  0
  8
  17
  26
  36
  47
  59
  72
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  32
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  71
  77
  81
  85
  88
  90
  91
  92
  92
  91
  56
  56
  55
  54
  52
  50
  47
  44
  41
  36
  31
  26
  20
  13
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  96
  109
  118
  126
  133
  140
  145
  151
  155
  159
  129
  134
  138
  142
  145
  149
  152
  155
  158
  159
  161
  163
  165
  165
  165
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  195
  214
  235
  256
  280
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -71
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -91
  -92
  -92
  -91
  -89
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  32
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -11
  -2
  7
  17
  27
Discount rate, %
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3
  5
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.2
  94.4
  91.5
  88.7
  85.9
  83.3
  80.7
  78.3
  76.1
  74.0
  72.8
  71.7
  70.6
  69.6
  68.7
  67.9
  67.1
  66.5
  65.9
  65.4
  65.0
  64.7
  64.5
  64.4
  64.3
  64.3
  64.3
  64.3
  64.3
  64.3

Oceaneering International, Inc. is an oilfield provider of engineered services and products, primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry, with a focus on deepwater applications. The Company's business segments are contained within two businesses: services and products provided to the oil and gas industry (Oilfield) and all other services and products (Advanced Technologies). Its four business segments within the Oilfield business are Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs), Subsea Products, Subsea Projects and Asset Integrity. The services and products it provides to the oil and gas industry include remotely operated vehicles, specialty subsea hardware, engineering and project management, subsea intervention services, including manned diving, survey and positioning services and asset integrity and nondestructive testing services. The Company serves the defense, aerospace and commercial theme park industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oceaneering International (OII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 99.1
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 52.3%
Total Debt to Equity 52.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Equity 1.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 41.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Payout Ratio 376%

OII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1921.507 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oceaneering International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Oceaneering International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for OII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oceaneering International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oceaneering International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $324 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Oceaneering International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oceaneering International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OII are equal to 69.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oceaneering International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OII is equal to 16.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1659.164 million for Oceaneering International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.533 million for Oceaneering International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oceaneering International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Oceaneering to Attend the Johnson Rice Energy Conference   [Sep-18-18 07:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy in August   [Aug-01-18 06:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Oceaneering International: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 05:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Ways to Trade the Rise in Robotics and Automation   [Jun-13-18 11:10AM  Investopedia]
▶ Oceaneering International Shows Great Strides on the Charts   [May-22-18 02:35PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ CEOs of McDermott, Oceaneering talk about subsea consolidation   [May-03-18 11:14AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 9 firms to add nearly 200 workers for tech-related jobs   [May-01-18 02:51PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Oceaneering International Inc Dives Deeper Into the Red   [Apr-26-18 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Oceaneering International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 07:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ OTC 2018: Tech awards doled out before big conference hits Houston   [Mar-22-18 03:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Oceaneering Acquires Ecosse Subsea Limited   [Mar-05-18 07:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Deanna L. Goodwin Joins Oceaneering's Board of Directors   [Feb-26-18 07:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Oceaneering International Inc. Remains in the Red   [Feb-23-18 10:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Oceaneering International posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-18 05:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Oceaneering Announces Pricing of Senior Notes   [Feb-01-18 05:04PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Oceaneering International posts 3Q loss   [Oct-25-17 05:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Did Weatherford React to Crude Oil Price Changes?   [Oct-23-17 01:06PM  Market Realist]

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