Intrinsic value of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings - OLLI

Previous Close

$73.60

  Intrinsic Value

$25.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

Previous close

$73.60

 
Intrinsic value

$25.39

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OLLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.80
  15.62
  14.56
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
Revenue, $m
  1,040
  1,202
  1,377
  1,564
  1,763
  1,974
  2,197
  2,431
  2,676
  2,932
  3,199
  3,478
  3,768
  4,069
  4,382
  4,708
  5,046
  5,398
  5,763
  6,143
  6,538
  6,950
  7,378
  7,824
  8,289
  8,774
  9,279
  9,807
  10,358
  10,933
Variable operating expenses, $m
  844
  965
  1,096
  1,236
  1,385
  1,542
  1,709
  1,883
  2,066
  2,258
  2,389
  2,597
  2,814
  3,039
  3,273
  3,516
  3,768
  4,031
  4,304
  4,588
  4,883
  5,190
  5,510
  5,843
  6,190
  6,552
  6,930
  7,324
  7,735
  8,165
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
Total operating expenses, $m
  901
  1,023
  1,156
  1,297
  1,447
  1,606
  1,774
  1,950
  2,134
  2,328
  2,460
  2,670
  2,888
  3,115
  3,351
  3,595
  3,849
  4,114
  4,389
  4,675
  4,971
  5,280
  5,602
  5,937
  6,286
  6,651
  7,031
  7,427
  7,840
  8,273
Operating income, $m
  138
  178
  221
  267
  316
  368
  423
  481
  542
  605
  739
  808
  880
  954
  1,032
  1,113
  1,196
  1,284
  1,374
  1,469
  1,567
  1,669
  1,776
  1,886
  2,002
  2,123
  2,249
  2,380
  2,517
  2,660
EBITDA, $m
  290
  343
  400
  462
  527
  596
  669
  746
  826
  910
  998
  1,089
  1,185
  1,284
  1,387
  1,494
  1,605
  1,721
  1,841
  1,966
  2,097
  2,232
  2,373
  2,520
  2,674
  2,833
  3,000
  3,174
  3,356
  3,546
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  52
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  164
  203
  245
  290
  337
  387
  440
  495
  553
  680
  743
  808
  876
  947
  1,020
  1,096
  1,176
  1,258
  1,344
  1,433
  1,526
  1,623
  1,724
  1,829
  1,938
  2,053
  2,172
  2,297
  2,428
Tax expense, $m
  34
  44
  55
  66
  78
  91
  105
  119
  134
  149
  184
  201
  218
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  340
  363
  387
  412
  438
  465
  494
  523
  554
  587
  620
  655
Net income, $m
  93
  120
  148
  179
  212
  246
  283
  321
  361
  403
  497
  542
  590
  640
  691
  745
  800
  858
  918
  981
  1,046
  1,114
  1,185
  1,258
  1,335
  1,415
  1,499
  1,586
  1,677
  1,772

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,213
  1,402
  1,607
  1,825
  2,058
  2,304
  2,564
  2,837
  3,122
  3,421
  3,733
  4,058
  4,396
  4,748
  5,113
  5,493
  5,888
  6,298
  6,725
  7,168
  7,629
  8,109
  8,609
  9,130
  9,672
  10,238
  10,828
  11,443
  12,086
  12,758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,213
  1,402
  1,607
  1,825
  2,058
  2,304
  2,564
  2,837
  3,122
  3,421
  3,733
  4,058
  4,396
  4,748
  5,113
  5,493
  5,888
  6,298
  6,725
  7,168
  7,629
  8,109
  8,609
  9,130
  9,672
  10,238
  10,828
  11,443
  12,086
  12,758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
Average production assets, $m
  842
  974
  1,115
  1,267
  1,428
  1,599
  1,780
  1,969
  2,167
  2,375
  2,591
  2,817
  3,052
  3,296
  3,550
  3,813
  4,087
  4,372
  4,668
  4,976
  5,296
  5,629
  5,976
  6,338
  6,714
  7,107
  7,516
  7,944
  8,390
  8,856
Working capital, $m
  186
  215
  246
  280
  316
  353
  393
  435
  479
  525
  573
  623
  674
  728
  784
  843
  903
  966
  1,032
  1,100
  1,170
  1,244
  1,321
  1,401
  1,484
  1,570
  1,661
  1,755
  1,854
  1,957
Total debt, $m
  258
  329
  405
  486
  573
  665
  762
  864
  970
  1,082
  1,198
  1,319
  1,445
  1,577
  1,713
  1,855
  2,002
  2,155
  2,314
  2,479
  2,651
  2,830
  3,017
  3,211
  3,413
  3,624
  3,844
  4,074
  4,314
  4,564
Total liabilities, $m
  452
  523
  599
  681
  768
  859
  956
  1,058
  1,165
  1,276
  1,392
  1,514
  1,640
  1,771
  1,907
  2,049
  2,196
  2,349
  2,508
  2,674
  2,846
  3,025
  3,211
  3,405
  3,608
  3,819
  4,039
  4,268
  4,508
  4,759
Total equity, $m
  761
  879
  1,007
  1,144
  1,290
  1,445
  1,607
  1,778
  1,958
  2,145
  2,341
  2,544
  2,756
  2,977
  3,206
  3,444
  3,692
  3,949
  4,216
  4,494
  4,784
  5,085
  5,398
  5,724
  6,064
  6,419
  6,789
  7,175
  7,578
  7,999
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,213
  1,402
  1,606
  1,825
  2,058
  2,304
  2,563
  2,836
  3,123
  3,421
  3,733
  4,058
  4,396
  4,748
  5,113
  5,493
  5,888
  6,298
  6,724
  7,168
  7,630
  8,110
  8,609
  9,129
  9,672
  10,238
  10,828
  11,443
  12,086
  12,758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  120
  148
  179
  212
  246
  283
  321
  361
  403
  497
  542
  590
  640
  691
  745
  800
  858
  918
  981
  1,046
  1,114
  1,185
  1,258
  1,335
  1,415
  1,499
  1,586
  1,677
  1,772
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  152
  165
  179
  194
  211
  228
  246
  265
  285
  305
  259
  282
  305
  330
  355
  381
  409
  437
  467
  498
  530
  563
  598
  634
  671
  711
  752
  794
  839
  886
Funds from operations, $m
  245
  285
  328
  374
  422
  474
  529
  586
  646
  709
  756
  824
  895
  969
  1,046
  1,126
  1,209
  1,295
  1,385
  1,479
  1,576
  1,677
  1,782
  1,892
  2,006
  2,126
  2,250
  2,380
  2,516
  2,658
Change in working capital, $m
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
Cash from operations, $m
  218
  256
  296
  340
  387
  436
  489
  544
  602
  663
  708
  774
  843
  915
  990
  1,068
  1,149
  1,232
  1,320
  1,411
  1,505
  1,603
  1,706
  1,812
  1,923
  2,039
  2,160
  2,286
  2,417
  2,555
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -84
  -97
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -197
  -217
  -237
  -259
  -282
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -381
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -498
  -530
  -563
  -598
  -634
  -671
  -711
  -752
  -794
  -839
New CAPEX, $m
  -121
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -410
  -427
  -446
  -466
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -193
  -216
  -239
  -264
  -288
  -314
  -340
  -367
  -395
  -424
  -453
  -485
  -517
  -549
  -584
  -619
  -655
  -694
  -733
  -775
  -818
  -863
  -910
  -959
  -1,011
  -1,064
  -1,121
  -1,179
  -1,240
  -1,305
Free cash flow, $m
  25
  40
  57
  77
  99
  122
  148
  177
  207
  239
  254
  290
  327
  366
  407
  449
  493
  539
  587
  636
  687
  740
  796
  853
  913
  975
  1,039
  1,107
  1,177
  1,250
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  64
  71
  76
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  80
  71
  76
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  111
  133
  158
  185
  214
  245
  278
  313
  350
  370
  411
  453
  497
  543
  591
  640
  692
  746
  801
  859
  920
  982
  1,047
  1,115
  1,186
  1,260
  1,336
  1,416
  1,500
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -301
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -370
  -386
  -403
  -421
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -4
  -8
  5
  21
  39
  60
  83
  107
  134
  163
  175
  207
  241
  277
  314
  353
  393
  435
  478
  523
  570
  619
  669
  721
  775
  831
  890
  950
  1,013
  1,079
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -4
  -7
  5
  18
  31
  43
  56
  67
  77
  85
  83
  88
  92
  93
  92
  90
  85
  80
  74
  66
  59
  51
  44
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a retailer of brand name merchandise. The Company offers customers a selection of brand name products, including food, housewares, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, electronics and toys. Its warehouse format stores feature a range of products, including hardware, personal healthcare, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn and garden products. It offers cooking utensils, dishes, appliances, plastic containers, coffee, bottled non-carbonated beverages, coffee, bottled non-carbonated beverages, bedding, towels, curtains, laminate flooring, commercial and residential carpeting, air conditioners, home electronics, cellular accessories, dolls, action figures, puzzles, action figures, puzzles, educational toys, board games, luggage, automotive, seasonal, furniture, summer furniture and lawn and garden. As of January 28, 2017, it had operated 234 stores across 19 contiguous states in the Eastern half of the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.5
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 66.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 87.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29%
Total Debt to Equity 29.8%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 9.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

OLLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OLLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $890 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OLLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OLLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OLLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $56 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OLLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OLLI stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OLLI are equal to 81%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OLLI is equal to 17.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $651 million for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60 million for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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