Intrinsic value of Owens&Minor - OMI

Previous Close

$18.67

  Intrinsic Value

$34.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+87%

Previous close

$18.67

 
Intrinsic value

$34.90

 
Up/down potential

+87%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  9,723
  9,917
  10,146
  10,406
  10,699
  11,023
  11,379
  11,767
  12,186
  12,638
  13,123
  13,642
  14,196
  14,785
  15,412
  16,077
  16,781
  17,527
  18,316
  19,149
  20,029
  20,957
  21,936
  22,968
  24,056
  25,201
  26,407
  27,676
  29,011
  30,416
  31,894
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,718
  9,941
  10,195
  10,481
  10,797
  11,145
  11,523
  11,932
  12,373
  12,846
  13,311
  13,851
  14,427
  15,038
  15,687
  16,374
  17,102
  17,871
  18,684
  19,543
  20,449
  21,404
  22,411
  23,472
  24,589
  25,766
  27,004
  28,307
  29,678
  31,120
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,524
  9,718
  9,941
  10,195
  10,481
  10,797
  11,145
  11,523
  11,932
  12,373
  12,846
  13,311
  13,851
  14,427
  15,038
  15,687
  16,374
  17,102
  17,871
  18,684
  19,543
  20,449
  21,404
  22,411
  23,472
  24,589
  25,766
  27,004
  28,307
  29,678
  31,120
Operating income, $m
  200
  199
  205
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  277
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
EBITDA, $m
  255
  264
  270
  277
  285
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  428
  446
  466
  487
  509
  533
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  772
  809
  848
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  28
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  187
  199
  211
Earnings before tax, $m
  173
  171
  175
  180
  184
  190
  195
  202
  208
  216
  223
  273
  282
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  361
  375
  390
  405
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  540
  563
Tax expense, $m
  64
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
Net income, $m
  109
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  199
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  320
  334
  348
  362
  378
  394
  411

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,718
  2,583
  2,643
  2,711
  2,787
  2,871
  2,964
  3,065
  3,174
  3,292
  3,418
  3,554
  3,698
  3,851
  4,015
  4,188
  4,371
  4,566
  4,771
  4,988
  5,217
  5,459
  5,714
  5,983
  6,266
  6,564
  6,879
  7,209
  7,557
  7,923
  8,308
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,533
  2,583
  2,643
  2,711
  2,787
  2,871
  2,964
  3,065
  3,174
  3,292
  3,418
  3,554
  3,698
  3,851
  4,015
  4,188
  4,371
  4,566
  4,771
  4,988
  5,217
  5,459
  5,714
  5,983
  6,266
  6,564
  6,879
  7,209
  7,557
  7,923
  8,308
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.838
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.838
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
  3.839
Average production assets, $m
  290
  298
  304
  312
  321
  331
  341
  353
  366
  379
  394
  409
  426
  444
  462
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  601
  629
  658
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  957
Working capital, $m
  927
  754
  771
  791
  813
  838
  865
  894
  926
  961
  997
  1,037
  1,079
  1,124
  1,171
  1,222
  1,275
  1,332
  1,392
  1,455
  1,522
  1,593
  1,667
  1,746
  1,828
  1,915
  2,007
  2,103
  2,205
  2,312
  2,424
Total debt, $m
  565
  600
  641
  688
  741
  800
  864
  934
  1,010
  1,092
  1,179
  1,273
  1,373
  1,480
  1,593
  1,713
  1,841
  1,975
  2,118
  2,269
  2,428
  2,596
  2,773
  2,959
  3,156
  3,363
  3,581
  3,810
  4,052
  4,306
  4,573
Total liabilities, $m
  1,758
  1,793
  1,834
  1,881
  1,934
  1,993
  2,057
  2,127
  2,203
  2,285
  2,372
  2,466
  2,566
  2,673
  2,786
  2,906
  3,034
  3,168
  3,311
  3,462
  3,621
  3,789
  3,966
  4,152
  4,349
  4,556
  4,774
  5,003
  5,245
  5,499
  5,766
Total equity, $m
  960
  791
  809
  829
  853
  879
  907
  938
  971
  1,007
  1,046
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,228
  1,281
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,749
  1,831
  1,917
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,312
  2,424
  2,542
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,718
  2,584
  2,643
  2,710
  2,787
  2,872
  2,964
  3,065
  3,174
  3,292
  3,418
  3,553
  3,698
  3,852
  4,014
  4,187
  4,372
  4,565
  4,771
  4,988
  5,217
  5,459
  5,715
  5,983
  6,266
  6,565
  6,879
  7,209
  7,557
  7,923
  8,308
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.589
  0.760
  0.790
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  1.000
  1.040
  1.080
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.260
  1.300
  1.340
  1.380
  1.410
  1.450
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.590
  1.620
  1.650
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  199
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  320
  334
  348
  362
  378
  394
  411
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  65
  65
  66
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Funds from operations, $m
  193
  190
  193
  197
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  228
  235
  231
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  445
  465
  485
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
Cash from operations, $m
  187
  175
  176
  177
  179
  181
  184
  187
  190
  194
  198
  192
  197
  202
  208
  215
  221
  229
  236
  245
  253
  263
  272
  283
  294
  305
  317
  330
  344
  358
  373
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -8
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
Free cash flow, $m
  162
  145
  146
  146
  146
  146
  147
  149
  150
  152
  154
  146
  149
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  177
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -79
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  87
  179
  187
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  226
  234
  242
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  440
  460
  481
  502
  525
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  349
  169
  172
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  198
  203
  198
  205
  211
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  333
  153
  147
  141
  135
  128
  121
  114
  107
  99
  87
  79
  72
  65
  58
  51
  45
  38
  33
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Owens & Minor, Inc. is a healthcare services company that connects the world of medical products to the point of care. The Company provides supply chain assistance to the providers of healthcare services and the manufacturers of healthcare products, supplies and devices. The Company's segments include Domestic, International and Clinical & Procedural Solutions (CPS). The Domestic Segment offers a portfolio of products and services to healthcare providers and manufacturers in the United States. The Company also offers additional services to healthcare providers, including supplier management, analytics, inventory management, outsourced resource management, clinical supply management and business process consulting. The International segment includes its European distribution and logistics business. The CPS segment provides product-related solutions, helping manufacturers and healthcare providers source, assemble and deliver procedure kits to the point-of-care.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Owens&Minor (OMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.5
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 58.9%
Total Debt to Equity 58.9%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 3.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.4%
Payout Ratio 57.8%

OMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9723 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Owens&Minor. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Owens&Minor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for OMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Owens&Minor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Owens&Minor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Owens&Minor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Owens&Minor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OMI are equal to 3%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Owens&Minor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OMI is equal to 7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $960 million for Owens&Minor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.176 million for Owens&Minor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Owens&Minor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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▶ ETFs with exposure to Owens & Minor, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Owens & Minor, Inc. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 02:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Owens & Minor, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Owens & Minor Approves 2nd Quarter 2017 Dividend   [May-04-17 05:53PM  Business Wire]
▶ Owens & Minor misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-02-17 07:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Owens & Minor to Acquire Byram Healthcare   [07:03PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of OMI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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