Intrinsic value of Old Republic International - ORI

Previous Close

$20.44

  Intrinsic Value

$1.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$20.44

 
Intrinsic value

$1.62

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ORI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  6,651
  7,056
  7,477
  7,916
  8,374
  8,853
  9,352
  9,873
  10,418
  10,987
  11,582
  12,205
  12,856
  13,539
  14,253
  15,000
  15,784
  16,605
  17,465
  18,366
  19,311
  20,302
  21,341
  22,431
  23,574
  24,773
  26,031
  27,351
  28,736
  30,189
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,687
  6,033
  6,393
  6,768
  7,160
  7,569
  7,996
  8,441
  8,907
  9,394
  9,903
  10,435
  10,992
  11,575
  12,186
  12,825
  13,495
  14,197
  14,932
  15,703
  16,511
  17,358
  18,247
  19,179
  20,156
  21,181
  22,257
  23,385
  24,569
  25,811
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  126
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  199
  203
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,813
  6,161
  6,524
  6,902
  7,297
  7,709
  8,139
  8,587
  9,057
  9,547
  10,059
  10,595
  11,155
  11,742
  12,356
  12,999
  13,673
  14,379
  15,118
  15,893
  16,705
  17,557
  18,450
  19,386
  20,368
  21,398
  22,478
  23,611
  24,800
  26,047
Operating income, $m
  839
  895
  953
  1,014
  1,077
  1,143
  1,213
  1,285
  1,361
  1,440
  1,523
  1,610
  1,701
  1,796
  1,896
  2,001
  2,111
  2,226
  2,346
  2,473
  2,606
  2,745
  2,892
  3,045
  3,206
  3,376
  3,553
  3,740
  3,935
  4,141
EBITDA, $m
  2,856
  3,035
  3,221
  3,415
  3,617
  3,828
  4,049
  4,280
  4,521
  4,772
  5,036
  5,312
  5,600
  5,903
  6,219
  6,550
  6,898
  7,262
  7,643
  8,044
  8,463
  8,903
  9,364
  9,849
  10,356
  10,889
  11,448
  12,035
  12,651
  13,297
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
  720
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  175
  233
  294
  357
  424
  493
  565
  641
  720
  803
  890
  981
  1,076
  1,176
  1,281
  1,391
  1,506
  1,627
  1,753
  1,886
  2,025
  2,172
  2,325
  2,486
  2,656
  2,833
  3,020
  3,216
  3,421
Tax expense, $m
  32
  47
  63
  79
  96
  114
  133
  153
  173
  194
  217
  240
  265
  291
  318
  346
  376
  407
  439
  473
  509
  547
  586
  628
  671
  717
  765
  815
  868
  924
Net income, $m
  87
  128
  170
  214
  261
  309
  360
  413
  468
  526
  586
  650
  716
  786
  859
  935
  1,015
  1,099
  1,187
  1,280
  1,377
  1,479
  1,585
  1,697
  1,815
  1,939
  2,068
  2,204
  2,347
  2,497

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  20,173
  21,400
  22,678
  24,010
  25,400
  26,850
  28,363
  29,944
  31,596
  33,323
  35,129
  37,017
  38,994
  41,062
  43,228
  45,496
  47,872
  50,362
  52,971
  55,705
  58,571
  61,577
  64,729
  68,034
  71,501
  75,137
  78,952
  82,955
  87,155
  91,562
Working capital, $m
  -15,577
  -16,524
  -17,511
  -18,540
  -19,613
  -20,733
  -21,902
  -23,122
  -24,398
  -25,731
  -27,125
  -28,584
  -30,110
  -31,707
  -33,380
  -35,131
  -36,966
  -38,888
  -40,902
  -43,014
  -45,227
  -47,548
  -49,982
  -52,534
  -55,211
  -58,019
  -60,965
  -64,056
  -67,299
  -70,702
Total debt, $m
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
  13,331
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  128
  170
  214
  261
  309
  360
  413
  468
  526
  586
  650
  716
  786
  859
  935
  1,015
  1,099
  1,187
  1,280
  1,377
  1,479
  1,585
  1,697
  1,815
  1,939
  2,068
  2,204
  2,347
  2,497
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,017
  2,140
  2,268
  2,401
  2,540
  2,685
  2,836
  2,994
  3,160
  3,332
  3,513
  3,702
  3,899
  4,106
  4,323
  4,550
  4,787
  5,036
  5,297
  5,570
  5,857
  6,158
  6,473
  6,803
  7,150
  7,514
  7,895
  8,296
  8,715
  9,156
Funds from operations, $m
  2,104
  2,268
  2,438
  2,616
  2,801
  2,994
  3,196
  3,407
  3,628
  3,858
  4,099
  4,352
  4,616
  4,892
  5,182
  5,485
  5,802
  6,135
  6,484
  6,850
  7,234
  7,636
  8,058
  8,501
  8,965
  9,452
  9,964
  10,500
  11,063
  11,654
Change in working capital, $m
  -909
  -947
  -987
  -1,029
  -1,073
  -1,120
  -1,169
  -1,221
  -1,276
  -1,333
  -1,394
  -1,458
  -1,526
  -1,597
  -1,672
  -1,751
  -1,835
  -1,922
  -2,014
  -2,111
  -2,213
  -2,321
  -2,434
  -2,552
  -2,677
  -2,808
  -2,946
  -3,091
  -3,243
  -3,403
Cash from operations, $m
  3,014
  3,215
  3,425
  3,644
  3,874
  4,114
  4,365
  4,628
  4,903
  5,191
  5,493
  5,810
  6,142
  6,489
  6,854
  7,236
  7,637
  8,058
  8,499
  8,962
  9,447
  9,957
  10,492
  11,053
  11,642
  12,260
  12,909
  13,591
  14,306
  15,057
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,900
  -2,017
  -2,140
  -2,268
  -2,401
  -2,540
  -2,685
  -2,836
  -2,994
  -3,160
  -3,332
  -3,513
  -3,702
  -3,899
  -4,106
  -4,323
  -4,550
  -4,787
  -5,036
  -5,297
  -5,570
  -5,857
  -6,158
  -6,473
  -6,803
  -7,150
  -7,514
  -7,895
  -8,296
  -8,715
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,176
  -1,227
  -1,278
  -1,332
  -1,390
  -1,450
  -1,514
  -1,581
  -1,652
  -1,727
  -1,806
  -1,889
  -1,976
  -2,069
  -2,166
  -2,268
  -2,376
  -2,489
  -2,609
  -2,734
  -2,867
  -3,005
  -3,152
  -3,305
  -3,467
  -3,637
  -3,815
  -4,003
  -4,200
  -4,407
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3,076
  -3,244
  -3,418
  -3,600
  -3,791
  -3,990
  -4,199
  -4,417
  -4,646
  -4,887
  -5,138
  -5,402
  -5,678
  -5,968
  -6,272
  -6,591
  -6,926
  -7,276
  -7,645
  -8,031
  -8,437
  -8,862
  -9,310
  -9,778
  -10,270
  -10,787
  -11,329
  -11,898
  -12,496
  -13,122
Free cash flow, $m
  -62
  -29
  7
  44
  83
  124
  166
  211
  257
  305
  356
  408
  464
  521
  582
  645
  712
  781
  854
  930
  1,010
  1,094
  1,183
  1,275
  1,372
  1,474
  1,581
  1,693
  1,811
  1,934
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -62
  -29
  7
  44
  83
  124
  166
  211
  257
  305
  356
  408
  464
  521
  582
  645
  712
  781
  854
  930
  1,010
  1,094
  1,183
  1,275
  1,372
  1,474
  1,581
  1,693
  1,811
  1,934
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  0
  0
  7
  44
  83
  124
  166
  211
  257
  305
  356
  408
  464
  521
  582
  645
  712
  781
  854
  930
  1,010
  1,094
  1,183
  1,275
  1,372
  1,474
  1,581
  1,693
  1,811
  1,934
Discount rate, %
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
  60.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  0
  0
  4
  24
  37
  44
  47
  47
  44
  39
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Old Republic International Corporation is a holding company. The Company is engaged in business of insurance underwriting and related services. The Company conducts its operations through various regulated insurance company subsidiaries, which are organized into three segments: General Insurance Group, Title Insurance Group and the Republic Financial Indemnity Group (RFIG) Run-off Business. The Company's General Insurance segment consists of property and liability insurance, and offers coverages to businesses, government and other institutions. The Company's Title Insurance Group business consists of the issuance of policies to real estate purchasers and investors based upon searches of the public records, which contain information concerning interests in real property. The Company's RFIG run-off business consists of its mortgage guaranty and consumer credit indemnity (CCI) operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Old Republic International (ORI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.5
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 34.2%
Total Debt to Equity 34.2%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Payout Ratio 41.5%

ORI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6263 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Old Republic International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Old Republic International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.7%, whose default value for ORI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Old Republic International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Old Republic International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $123 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Old Republic International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Old Republic International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORI are equal to 303.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Old Republic International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORI is equal to -234.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Old Republic International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 262 million for Old Republic International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Old Republic International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Old Republic Announces Stock Purchase By Its ESSOP   [May-08-18 11:31AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Old Republic: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 09:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Old Republic posts 4Q profit   [Jan-25-18 09:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Rated Dividend Stocks   [Nov-27-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Old Republic posts 3Q profit   [Oct-26-17 09:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Old Republic Announces Third Quarter Special Charges   [Oct-17-17 02:08PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Old Republic posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 01:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Top Dividend-Growing Financial Sector Stocks   [Jul-12-17 02:44PM  Market Realist]
▶ Old Republic posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 09:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Public Liability Insurance Is Ignored Among Insurers   [Mar-28-17 05:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
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