Intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY

Previous Close

$344.54

  Intrinsic Value

$187.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$344.54

 
Intrinsic value

$187.45

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 28.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  9,624
  10,296
  10,994
  11,720
  12,475
  13,261
  14,079
  14,931
  15,819
  16,745
  17,711
  18,719
  19,771
  20,870
  22,019
  23,219
  24,475
  25,788
  27,163
  28,602
  30,109
  31,686
  33,339
  35,071
  36,886
  38,789
  40,784
  42,875
  45,068
  47,368
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,713
  8,246
  8,800
  9,375
  9,975
  10,598
  11,247
  11,923
  12,627
  13,361
  14,048
  14,848
  15,683
  16,554
  17,465
  18,418
  19,414
  20,456
  21,546
  22,687
  23,882
  25,134
  26,445
  27,819
  29,259
  30,768
  32,350
  34,009
  35,749
  37,573
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,713
  8,246
  8,800
  9,375
  9,975
  10,598
  11,247
  11,923
  12,627
  13,361
  14,048
  14,848
  15,683
  16,554
  17,465
  18,418
  19,414
  20,456
  21,546
  22,687
  23,882
  25,134
  26,445
  27,819
  29,259
  30,768
  32,350
  34,009
  35,749
  37,573
Operating income, $m
  1,911
  2,050
  2,195
  2,345
  2,501
  2,663
  2,833
  3,009
  3,192
  3,384
  3,662
  3,871
  4,088
  4,316
  4,553
  4,801
  5,061
  5,333
  5,617
  5,915
  6,226
  6,552
  6,894
  7,252
  7,628
  8,021
  8,434
  8,866
  9,320
  9,795
EBITDA, $m
  2,216
  2,371
  2,532
  2,699
  2,873
  3,054
  3,242
  3,438
  3,643
  3,856
  4,078
  4,311
  4,553
  4,806
  5,070
  5,347
  5,636
  5,938
  6,255
  6,586
  6,933
  7,297
  7,677
  8,076
  8,494
  8,932
  9,392
  9,873
  10,378
  10,908
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  161
  182
  209
  238
  267
  298
  331
  364
  399
  435
  473
  513
  554
  597
  642
  689
  739
  790
  844
  900
  959
  1,021
  1,086
  1,153
  1,224
  1,299
  1,377
  1,458
  1,544
  1,634
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,750
  1,869
  1,985
  2,107
  2,233
  2,365
  2,502
  2,645
  2,793
  2,948
  3,189
  3,358
  3,534
  3,718
  3,911
  4,112
  4,322
  4,543
  4,773
  5,014
  5,267
  5,531
  5,809
  6,099
  6,403
  6,722
  7,057
  7,408
  7,775
  8,161
Tax expense, $m
  473
  505
  536
  569
  603
  639
  676
  714
  754
  796
  861
  907
  954
  1,004
  1,056
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
  1,289
  1,354
  1,422
  1,493
  1,568
  1,647
  1,729
  1,815
  1,905
  2,000
  2,099
  2,204
Net income, $m
  1,278
  1,364
  1,449
  1,538
  1,630
  1,726
  1,826
  1,931
  2,039
  2,152
  2,328
  2,451
  2,580
  2,714
  2,855
  3,002
  3,155
  3,316
  3,484
  3,660
  3,845
  4,038
  4,240
  4,452
  4,674
  4,907
  5,152
  5,408
  5,676
  5,958

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,115
  8,681
  9,270
  9,882
  10,519
  11,181
  11,871
  12,590
  13,338
  14,119
  14,933
  15,783
  16,670
  17,597
  18,565
  19,578
  20,637
  21,744
  22,903
  24,116
  25,387
  26,717
  28,111
  29,571
  31,102
  32,706
  34,388
  36,151
  38,000
  39,939
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,115
  8,681
  9,270
  9,882
  10,519
  11,181
  11,871
  12,590
  13,338
  14,119
  14,933
  15,783
  16,670
  17,597
  18,565
  19,578
  20,637
  21,744
  22,903
  24,116
  25,387
  26,717
  28,111
  29,571
  31,102
  32,706
  34,388
  36,151
  38,000
  39,939
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
Average production assets, $m
  3,888
  4,160
  4,442
  4,735
  5,040
  5,358
  5,688
  6,032
  6,391
  6,765
  7,155
  7,562
  7,987
  8,432
  8,896
  9,381
  9,888
  10,419
  10,974
  11,555
  12,164
  12,801
  13,469
  14,169
  14,902
  15,671
  16,477
  17,321
  18,208
  19,137
Working capital, $m
  -318
  -340
  -363
  -387
  -412
  -438
  -465
  -493
  -522
  -553
  -584
  -618
  -652
  -689
  -727
  -766
  -808
  -851
  -896
  -944
  -994
  -1,046
  -1,100
  -1,157
  -1,217
  -1,280
  -1,346
  -1,415
  -1,487
  -1,563
Total debt, $m
  3,363
  3,873
  4,403
  4,953
  5,527
  6,123
  6,744
  7,390
  8,064
  8,767
  9,500
  10,264
  11,063
  11,897
  12,768
  13,680
  14,632
  15,629
  16,672
  17,764
  18,907
  20,105
  21,359
  22,674
  24,051
  25,495
  27,008
  28,595
  30,260
  32,005
Total liabilities, $m
  7,303
  7,813
  8,343
  8,894
  9,467
  10,063
  10,684
  11,331
  12,005
  12,707
  13,440
  14,205
  15,003
  15,837
  16,709
  17,620
  18,573
  19,570
  20,613
  21,705
  22,848
  24,045
  25,300
  26,614
  27,991
  29,435
  30,949
  32,536
  34,200
  35,946
Total equity, $m
  811
  868
  927
  988
  1,052
  1,118
  1,187
  1,259
  1,334
  1,412
  1,493
  1,578
  1,667
  1,760
  1,857
  1,958
  2,064
  2,174
  2,290
  2,412
  2,539
  2,672
  2,811
  2,957
  3,110
  3,271
  3,439
  3,615
  3,800
  3,994
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,114
  8,681
  9,270
  9,882
  10,519
  11,181
  11,871
  12,590
  13,339
  14,119
  14,933
  15,783
  16,670
  17,597
  18,566
  19,578
  20,637
  21,744
  22,903
  24,117
  25,387
  26,717
  28,111
  29,571
  31,101
  32,706
  34,388
  36,151
  38,000
  39,940
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.140
  4.460
  4.750
  5.010
  5.250
  5.480
  5.680
  5.870
  6.050
  6.210
  6.360
  6.500
  6.640
  6.760
  6.880
  6.990
  7.090
  7.190
  7.280
  7.370
  7.450
  7.530
  7.600
  7.670
  7.730
  7.800
  7.850
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,278
  1,364
  1,449
  1,538
  1,630
  1,726
  1,826
  1,931
  2,039
  2,152
  2,328
  2,451
  2,580
  2,714
  2,855
  3,002
  3,155
  3,316
  3,484
  3,660
  3,845
  4,038
  4,240
  4,452
  4,674
  4,907
  5,152
  5,408
  5,676
  5,958
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  305
  321
  337
  354
  372
  390
  410
  430
  450
  472
  416
  440
  464
  490
  517
  545
  575
  606
  638
  672
  707
  744
  783
  824
  866
  911
  958
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
Funds from operations, $m
  1,583
  1,685
  1,787
  1,892
  2,002
  2,117
  2,236
  2,360
  2,490
  2,625
  2,744
  2,891
  3,044
  3,205
  3,372
  3,547
  3,730
  3,922
  4,122
  4,332
  4,552
  4,782
  5,023
  5,276
  5,541
  5,818
  6,109
  6,415
  6,735
  7,070
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
Cash from operations, $m
  1,604
  1,707
  1,810
  1,916
  2,027
  2,143
  2,263
  2,388
  2,519
  2,655
  2,776
  2,924
  3,079
  3,241
  3,410
  3,587
  3,772
  3,965
  4,168
  4,380
  4,602
  4,834
  5,078
  5,333
  5,601
  5,881
  6,175
  6,484
  6,807
  7,146
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -211
  -226
  -242
  -258
  -275
  -293
  -311
  -331
  -351
  -372
  -393
  -416
  -440
  -464
  -490
  -517
  -545
  -575
  -606
  -638
  -672
  -707
  -744
  -783
  -824
  -866
  -911
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,059
New CAPEX, $m
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -317
  -331
  -344
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -407
  -425
  -444
  -464
  -485
  -507
  -531
  -555
  -581
  -609
  -637
  -668
  -700
  -733
  -769
  -806
  -845
  -886
  -929
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -472
  -497
  -524
  -551
  -580
  -610
  -642
  -675
  -710
  -746
  -783
  -823
  -865
  -908
  -954
  -1,002
  -1,052
  -1,106
  -1,161
  -1,219
  -1,281
  -1,344
  -1,412
  -1,483
  -1,557
  -1,635
  -1,717
  -1,803
  -1,893
  -1,988
Free cash flow, $m
  1,132
  1,210
  1,286
  1,365
  1,447
  1,532
  1,621
  1,713
  1,809
  1,909
  1,992
  2,101
  2,214
  2,332
  2,456
  2,585
  2,719
  2,860
  3,007
  3,160
  3,321
  3,490
  3,666
  3,850
  4,044
  4,246
  4,458
  4,681
  4,914
  5,158
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  384
  510
  530
  551
  573
  596
  621
  647
  674
  703
  733
  765
  798
  834
  872
  911
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,092
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
  1,587
  1,664
  1,745
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  384
  510
  530
  551
  573
  596
  621
  647
  674
  703
  733
  765
  798
  834
  872
  911
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,092
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
  1,587
  1,664
  1,745
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,517
  1,719
  1,816
  1,916
  2,020
  2,129
  2,242
  2,360
  2,483
  2,612
  2,725
  2,866
  3,013
  3,166
  3,327
  3,496
  3,672
  3,856
  4,050
  4,252
  4,465
  4,687
  4,920
  5,165
  5,421
  5,690
  5,972
  6,268
  6,578
  6,904
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -158
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,358
  1,663
  1,757
  1,854
  1,956
  2,062
  2,173
  2,288
  2,408
  2,534
  2,644
  2,781
  2,924
  3,074
  3,230
  3,394
  3,566
  3,746
  3,934
  4,131
  4,337
  4,554
  4,781
  5,019
  5,268
  5,530
  5,804
  6,091
  6,393
  6,710
Discount rate, %
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,259
  1,418
  1,367
  1,307
  1,237
  1,159
  1,074
  985
  892
  797
  698
  608
  521
  440
  365
  298
  239
  187
  144
  108
  80
  57
  40
  27
  18
  12
  7
  4
  3
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. The Company sells its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers. The Company's product line includes new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, temperature control, chassis parts, driveline parts and engine parts; maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products, and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories. The Company's stores offer various services and programs to its customers, such as used oil, oil filter and battery recycling; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; custom hydraulic hoses, and machine shops.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.8
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 19.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 116%
Total Debt to Equity 116%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 30.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Return On Equity 57.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
EBITDA Margin 22.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 19.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ORLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8977.726 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by O'Reilly Automotive. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of O'Reilly Automotive. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for ORLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of O'Reilly Automotive, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of O'Reilly Automotive.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for O'Reilly Automotive.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for O'Reilly Automotive. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORLY are equal to 40.4%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in O'Reilly Automotive operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORLY is equal to -3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $653.046 million for O'Reilly Automotive - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.912 million for O'Reilly Automotive is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of O'Reilly Automotive at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $28.2 billion.

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