Intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY

Previous Close

$297.33

  Intrinsic Value

$149.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-50%

Previous close

$297.33

 
Intrinsic value

$149.07

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 26.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  9,382
  9,809
  10,260
  10,735
  11,237
  11,765
  12,322
  12,909
  13,527
  14,177
  14,861
  15,581
  16,338
  17,134
  17,971
  18,851
  19,776
  20,748
  21,770
  22,844
  23,972
  25,158
  26,403
  27,712
  29,086
  30,530
  32,047
  33,640
  35,313
  37,071
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,521
  7,859
  8,217
  8,594
  8,992
  9,411
  9,853
  10,319
  10,808
  11,324
  11,788
  12,359
  12,959
  13,591
  14,255
  14,953
  15,687
  16,458
  17,268
  18,120
  19,015
  19,956
  20,943
  21,981
  23,072
  24,217
  25,420
  26,684
  28,011
  29,405
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,521
  7,859
  8,217
  8,594
  8,992
  9,411
  9,853
  10,319
  10,808
  11,324
  11,788
  12,359
  12,959
  13,591
  14,255
  14,953
  15,687
  16,458
  17,268
  18,120
  19,015
  19,956
  20,943
  21,981
  23,072
  24,217
  25,420
  26,684
  28,011
  29,405
Operating income, $m
  1,861
  1,949
  2,043
  2,141
  2,245
  2,354
  2,469
  2,591
  2,718
  2,853
  3,073
  3,222
  3,378
  3,543
  3,716
  3,898
  4,089
  4,291
  4,502
  4,724
  4,957
  5,202
  5,460
  5,730
  6,015
  6,313
  6,627
  6,956
  7,302
  7,666
EBITDA, $m
  2,360
  2,468
  2,581
  2,701
  2,827
  2,960
  3,100
  3,248
  3,403
  3,567
  3,739
  3,920
  4,110
  4,311
  4,521
  4,743
  4,975
  5,220
  5,477
  5,747
  6,031
  6,329
  6,643
  6,972
  7,318
  7,681
  8,063
  8,463
  8,884
  9,327
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  161
  172
  189
  208
  227
  248
  269
  292
  316
  342
  368
  396
  426
  457
  489
  524
  560
  598
  637
  679
  723
  770
  818
  869
  923
  979
  1,038
  1,100
  1,166
  1,234
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,700
  1,778
  1,854
  1,933
  2,018
  2,106
  2,200
  2,298
  2,402
  2,511
  2,705
  2,826
  2,953
  3,086
  3,227
  3,375
  3,530
  3,693
  3,864
  4,045
  4,234
  4,433
  4,642
  4,861
  5,092
  5,334
  5,589
  5,856
  6,137
  6,431
Tax expense, $m
  459
  480
  500
  522
  545
  569
  594
  621
  649
  678
  730
  763
  797
  833
  871
  911
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,092
  1,143
  1,197
  1,253
  1,313
  1,375
  1,440
  1,509
  1,581
  1,657
  1,736
Net income, $m
  1,241
  1,298
  1,353
  1,411
  1,473
  1,538
  1,606
  1,678
  1,754
  1,833
  1,975
  2,063
  2,156
  2,253
  2,356
  2,463
  2,577
  2,696
  2,821
  2,953
  3,091
  3,236
  3,388
  3,549
  3,717
  3,894
  4,080
  4,275
  4,480
  4,695

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,911
  8,271
  8,651
  9,052
  9,474
  9,920
  10,390
  10,885
  11,405
  11,954
  12,530
  13,137
  13,776
  14,447
  15,153
  15,895
  16,675
  17,494
  18,356
  19,261
  20,213
  21,212
  22,263
  23,366
  24,525
  25,742
  27,021
  28,364
  29,775
  31,257
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,911
  8,271
  8,651
  9,052
  9,474
  9,920
  10,390
  10,885
  11,405
  11,954
  12,530
  13,137
  13,776
  14,447
  15,153
  15,895
  16,675
  17,494
  18,356
  19,261
  20,213
  21,212
  22,263
  23,366
  24,525
  25,742
  27,021
  28,364
  29,775
  31,257
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
Average production assets, $m
  4,203
  4,394
  4,596
  4,809
  5,034
  5,271
  5,520
  5,783
  6,060
  6,351
  6,658
  6,980
  7,319
  7,676
  8,051
  8,445
  8,860
  9,295
  9,753
  10,234
  10,740
  11,271
  11,829
  12,415
  13,031
  13,678
  14,357
  15,071
  15,820
  16,608
Working capital, $m
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -479
  -503
  -528
  -554
  -582
  -611
  -641
  -673
  -706
  -741
Total debt, $m
  3,179
  3,503
  3,845
  4,206
  4,587
  4,988
  5,410
  5,856
  6,324
  6,818
  7,337
  7,883
  8,457
  9,062
  9,697
  10,365
  11,067
  11,805
  12,580
  13,395
  14,251
  15,151
  16,096
  17,089
  18,132
  19,228
  20,378
  21,587
  22,857
  24,191
Total liabilities, $m
  7,120
  7,444
  7,786
  8,146
  8,527
  8,928
  9,351
  9,796
  10,265
  10,758
  11,277
  11,823
  12,398
  13,002
  13,637
  14,305
  15,007
  15,745
  16,520
  17,335
  18,192
  19,091
  20,036
  21,029
  22,072
  23,168
  24,319
  25,528
  26,798
  28,131
Total equity, $m
  791
  827
  865
  905
  947
  992
  1,039
  1,088
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
  1,378
  1,445
  1,515
  1,589
  1,667
  1,749
  1,836
  1,926
  2,021
  2,121
  2,226
  2,337
  2,452
  2,574
  2,702
  2,836
  2,978
  3,126
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,911
  8,271
  8,651
  9,051
  9,474
  9,920
  10,390
  10,884
  11,406
  11,953
  12,530
  13,137
  13,776
  14,447
  15,152
  15,894
  16,674
  17,494
  18,356
  19,261
  20,213
  21,212
  22,262
  23,366
  24,524
  25,742
  27,021
  28,364
  29,776
  31,257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.020
  4.240
  4.440
  4.650
  4.840
  5.030
  5.210
  5.380
  5.550
  5.700
  5.860
  6.000
  6.140
  6.270
  6.400
  6.520
  6.640
  6.750
  6.850
  6.950
  7.050
  7.140
  7.230
  7.310
  7.390
  7.470
  7.540
  7.610
  7.680
  7.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,241
  1,298
  1,353
  1,411
  1,473
  1,538
  1,606
  1,678
  1,754
  1,833
  1,975
  2,063
  2,156
  2,253
  2,356
  2,463
  2,577
  2,696
  2,821
  2,953
  3,091
  3,236
  3,388
  3,549
  3,717
  3,894
  4,080
  4,275
  4,480
  4,695
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  499
  518
  539
  560
  582
  606
  631
  657
  685
  714
  666
  698
  732
  768
  805
  845
  886
  930
  975
  1,023
  1,074
  1,127
  1,183
  1,241
  1,303
  1,368
  1,436
  1,507
  1,582
  1,661
Funds from operations, $m
  1,740
  1,816
  1,892
  1,971
  2,055
  2,144
  2,237
  2,335
  2,438
  2,547
  2,640
  2,761
  2,887
  3,021
  3,161
  3,308
  3,463
  3,625
  3,796
  3,976
  4,165
  4,363
  4,571
  4,790
  5,020
  5,262
  5,515
  5,782
  6,062
  6,356
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  1,749
  1,825
  1,901
  1,981
  2,065
  2,154
  2,248
  2,347
  2,451
  2,560
  2,654
  2,775
  2,903
  3,037
  3,177
  3,326
  3,481
  3,645
  3,817
  3,997
  4,187
  4,387
  4,596
  4,816
  5,048
  5,291
  5,546
  5,814
  6,095
  6,391
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -402
  -420
  -439
  -460
  -481
  -503
  -527
  -552
  -578
  -606
  -635
  -666
  -698
  -732
  -768
  -805
  -845
  -886
  -930
  -975
  -1,023
  -1,074
  -1,127
  -1,183
  -1,241
  -1,303
  -1,368
  -1,436
  -1,507
  -1,582
New CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -436
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -531
  -558
  -586
  -616
  -647
  -679
  -714
  -750
  -787
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -584
  -611
  -641
  -673
  -706
  -740
  -777
  -815
  -855
  -897
  -941
  -988
  -1,037
  -1,089
  -1,143
  -1,199
  -1,259
  -1,322
  -1,388
  -1,456
  -1,528
  -1,605
  -1,685
  -1,769
  -1,857
  -1,950
  -2,047
  -2,150
  -2,257
  -2,369
Free cash flow, $m
  1,164
  1,213
  1,259
  1,308
  1,360
  1,414
  1,471
  1,532
  1,596
  1,663
  1,712
  1,787
  1,865
  1,948
  2,035
  2,126
  2,222
  2,323
  2,429
  2,541
  2,658
  2,782
  2,911
  3,047
  3,190
  3,341
  3,499
  3,664
  3,839
  4,022
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  201
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
  546
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  738
  775
  815
  856
  900
  945
  993
  1,043
  1,096
  1,151
  1,209
  1,270
  1,334
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  201
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
  546
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  738
  775
  815
  856
  900
  945
  993
  1,043
  1,096
  1,151
  1,209
  1,270
  1,334
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,365
  1,537
  1,601
  1,669
  1,740
  1,815
  1,894
  1,977
  2,064
  2,156
  2,232
  2,333
  2,440
  2,552
  2,670
  2,794
  2,924
  3,061
  3,205
  3,356
  3,515
  3,681
  3,856
  4,040
  4,233
  4,436
  4,649
  4,873
  5,108
  5,355
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -138
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,227
  1,501
  1,563
  1,629
  1,698
  1,771
  1,847
  1,928
  2,012
  2,101
  2,174
  2,272
  2,376
  2,485
  2,599
  2,720
  2,846
  2,979
  3,119
  3,265
  3,419
  3,581
  3,751
  3,930
  4,118
  4,315
  4,522
  4,739
  4,967
  5,207
Discount rate, %
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,137
  1,280
  1,217
  1,148
  1,073
  995
  913
  829
  745
  661
  574
  497
  423
  356
  294
  239
  190
  149
  114
  86
  63
  45
  31
  21
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. The Company sells its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers. The Company's product line includes new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, temperature control, chassis parts, driveline parts and engine parts; maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products, and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories. The Company's stores offer various services and programs to its customers, such as used oil, oil filter and battery recycling; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; custom hydraulic hoses, and machine shops.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.6
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 17
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 116%
Total Debt to Equity 116%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 30.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Return On Equity 57.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
EBITDA Margin 22.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 19.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ORLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8978 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by O'Reilly Automotive. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of O'Reilly Automotive. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for ORLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of O'Reilly Automotive, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of O'Reilly Automotive.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for O'Reilly Automotive.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for O'Reilly Automotive. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORLY stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORLY are equal to 44.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in O'Reilly Automotive operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORLY is equal to -2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $653 million for O'Reilly Automotive - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88 million for O'Reilly Automotive is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of O'Reilly Automotive at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $26.2 billion.

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