Intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. - ORLY

Previous Close

$387.96

  Intrinsic Value

$168.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$387.96

 
Intrinsic value

$168.97

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 30.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  10,080
  10,647
  11,240
  11,859
  12,507
  13,184
  13,892
  14,633
  15,409
  16,221
  17,071
  17,963
  18,896
  19,875
  20,900
  21,975
  23,103
  24,285
  25,524
  26,825
  28,189
  29,620
  31,121
  32,697
  34,350
  36,084
  37,905
  39,816
  41,821
  43,926
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,140
  8,593
  9,067
  9,562
  10,080
  10,621
  11,188
  11,780
  12,400
  13,050
  13,649
  14,362
  15,108
  15,890
  16,710
  17,570
  18,471
  19,416
  20,408
  21,447
  22,538
  23,682
  24,883
  26,142
  27,464
  28,851
  30,306
  31,834
  33,437
  35,120
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,140
  8,593
  9,067
  9,562
  10,080
  10,621
  11,188
  11,780
  12,400
  13,050
  13,649
  14,362
  15,108
  15,890
  16,710
  17,570
  18,471
  19,416
  20,408
  21,447
  22,538
  23,682
  24,883
  26,142
  27,464
  28,851
  30,306
  31,834
  33,437
  35,120
Operating income, $m
  1,940
  2,054
  2,172
  2,297
  2,426
  2,562
  2,704
  2,853
  3,008
  3,171
  3,422
  3,601
  3,788
  3,984
  4,190
  4,405
  4,631
  4,868
  5,117
  5,377
  5,651
  5,938
  6,239
  6,554
  6,886
  7,234
  7,599
  7,982
  8,384
  8,805
EBITDA, $m
  2,268
  2,396
  2,529
  2,668
  2,814
  2,966
  3,126
  3,293
  3,467
  3,650
  3,841
  4,042
  4,252
  4,472
  4,703
  4,945
  5,198
  5,464
  5,743
  6,036
  6,343
  6,665
  7,003
  7,357
  7,729
  8,119
  8,529
  8,959
  9,410
  9,884
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  185
  183
  206
  230
  255
  281
  309
  338
  368
  399
  432
  467
  503
  541
  581
  623
  666
  712
  760
  811
  864
  919
  977
  1,038
  1,102
  1,170
  1,240
  1,314
  1,392
  1,473
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,755
  1,871
  1,967
  2,067
  2,171
  2,281
  2,395
  2,515
  2,640
  2,772
  2,990
  3,134
  3,285
  3,443
  3,609
  3,783
  3,965
  4,156
  4,356
  4,567
  4,787
  5,019
  5,261
  5,516
  5,783
  6,064
  6,358
  6,667
  6,992
  7,332
Tax expense, $m
  474
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  647
  679
  713
  748
  807
  846
  887
  930
  974
  1,021
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
  1,233
  1,293
  1,355
  1,421
  1,489
  1,562
  1,637
  1,717
  1,800
  1,888
  1,980
Net income, $m
  1,281
  1,366
  1,436
  1,509
  1,585
  1,665
  1,749
  1,836
  1,927
  2,023
  2,183
  2,288
  2,398
  2,513
  2,634
  2,761
  2,894
  3,034
  3,180
  3,334
  3,495
  3,664
  3,841
  4,027
  4,222
  4,427
  4,642
  4,867
  5,104
  5,352

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,435
  8,910
  9,406
  9,924
  10,466
  11,032
  11,625
  12,245
  12,894
  13,574
  14,286
  15,031
  15,813
  16,631
  17,490
  18,389
  19,333
  20,322
  21,359
  22,447
  23,589
  24,786
  26,043
  27,361
  28,745
  30,196
  31,720
  33,319
  34,997
  36,758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,435
  8,910
  9,406
  9,924
  10,466
  11,032
  11,625
  12,245
  12,894
  13,574
  14,286
  15,031
  15,813
  16,631
  17,490
  18,389
  19,333
  20,322
  21,359
  22,447
  23,589
  24,786
  26,043
  27,361
  28,745
  30,196
  31,720
  33,319
  34,997
  36,758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
  1.195
Average production assets, $m
  4,082
  4,312
  4,552
  4,803
  5,065
  5,339
  5,626
  5,926
  6,240
  6,569
  6,914
  7,275
  7,653
  8,049
  8,465
  8,900
  9,357
  9,835
  10,337
  10,864
  11,416
  11,996
  12,604
  13,242
  13,912
  14,614
  15,352
  16,125
  16,938
  17,790
Working capital, $m
  -403
  -426
  -450
  -474
  -500
  -527
  -556
  -585
  -616
  -649
  -683
  -719
  -756
  -795
  -836
  -879
  -924
  -971
  -1,021
  -1,073
  -1,128
  -1,185
  -1,245
  -1,308
  -1,374
  -1,443
  -1,516
  -1,593
  -1,673
  -1,757
Total debt, $m
  3,381
  3,809
  4,255
  4,722
  5,209
  5,719
  6,252
  6,811
  7,395
  8,007
  8,647
  9,318
  10,021
  10,758
  11,531
  12,340
  13,189
  14,080
  15,013
  15,993
  17,020
  18,098
  19,229
  20,415
  21,660
  22,967
  24,338
  25,777
  27,287
  28,872
Total liabilities, $m
  7,591
  8,019
  8,465
  8,932
  9,419
  9,929
  10,462
  11,021
  11,605
  12,217
  12,857
  13,528
  14,231
  14,968
  15,741
  16,550
  17,399
  18,290
  19,223
  20,203
  21,230
  22,308
  23,439
  24,625
  25,870
  27,177
  28,548
  29,987
  31,497
  33,082
Total equity, $m
  843
  891
  941
  992
  1,047
  1,103
  1,162
  1,225
  1,289
  1,357
  1,429
  1,503
  1,581
  1,663
  1,749
  1,839
  1,933
  2,032
  2,136
  2,245
  2,359
  2,479
  2,604
  2,736
  2,874
  3,020
  3,172
  3,332
  3,500
  3,676
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,434
  8,910
  9,406
  9,924
  10,466
  11,032
  11,624
  12,246
  12,894
  13,574
  14,286
  15,031
  15,812
  16,631
  17,490
  18,389
  19,332
  20,322
  21,359
  22,448
  23,589
  24,787
  26,043
  27,361
  28,744
  30,197
  31,720
  33,319
  34,997
  36,758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.010
  4.270
  4.520
  4.760
  4.980
  5.180
  5.380
  5.560
  5.730
  5.900
  6.050
  6.200
  6.340
  6.470
  6.590
  6.710
  6.820
  6.930
  7.030
  7.120
  7.220
  7.300
  7.380
  7.460
  7.540
  7.610
  7.670
  7.740
  7.800
  7.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,281
  1,366
  1,436
  1,509
  1,585
  1,665
  1,749
  1,836
  1,927
  2,023
  2,183
  2,288
  2,398
  2,513
  2,634
  2,761
  2,894
  3,034
  3,180
  3,334
  3,495
  3,664
  3,841
  4,027
  4,222
  4,427
  4,642
  4,867
  5,104
  5,352
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  328
  342
  357
  372
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  479
  419
  441
  464
  488
  513
  539
  567
  596
  627
  658
  692
  727
  764
  803
  843
  886
  930
  977
  1,027
  1,078
Funds from operations, $m
  1,610
  1,708
  1,792
  1,881
  1,973
  2,069
  2,170
  2,276
  2,386
  2,502
  2,602
  2,729
  2,862
  3,001
  3,147
  3,301
  3,461
  3,630
  3,807
  3,992
  4,187
  4,391
  4,605
  4,829
  5,065
  5,312
  5,572
  5,844
  6,130
  6,431
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Cash from operations, $m
  1,631
  1,731
  1,816
  1,905
  1,999
  2,096
  2,199
  2,305
  2,417
  2,535
  2,636
  2,764
  2,899
  3,040
  3,188
  3,344
  3,506
  3,677
  3,856
  4,044
  4,241
  4,448
  4,665
  4,892
  5,131
  5,382
  5,645
  5,921
  6,211
  6,515
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -488
  -513
  -539
  -567
  -596
  -627
  -658
  -692
  -727
  -764
  -803
  -843
  -886
  -930
  -977
  -1,027
New CAPEX, $m
  -218
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -479
  -502
  -527
  -552
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -670
  -703
  -737
  -774
  -812
  -852
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -452
  -477
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -611
  -641
  -673
  -707
  -743
  -780
  -819
  -860
  -903
  -948
  -996
  -1,046
  -1,098
  -1,154
  -1,210
  -1,272
  -1,335
  -1,402
  -1,473
  -1,546
  -1,623
  -1,704
  -1,789
  -1,879
Free cash flow, $m
  1,179
  1,253
  1,315
  1,379
  1,445
  1,515
  1,588
  1,664
  1,744
  1,827
  1,893
  1,984
  2,080
  2,180
  2,285
  2,395
  2,511
  2,631
  2,758
  2,891
  3,030
  3,176
  3,330
  3,490
  3,659
  3,836
  4,022
  4,217
  4,421
  4,636
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -36
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  612
  641
  671
  703
  737
  772
  810
  849
  890
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,078
  1,131
  1,186
  1,245
  1,307
  1,371
  1,439
  1,510
  1,585
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  612
  641
  671
  703
  737
  772
  810
  849
  890
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,078
  1,131
  1,186
  1,245
  1,307
  1,371
  1,439
  1,510
  1,585
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,143
  1,681
  1,761
  1,845
  1,933
  2,025
  2,122
  2,222
  2,328
  2,439
  2,534
  2,655
  2,783
  2,917
  3,058
  3,205
  3,360
  3,522
  3,692
  3,870
  4,058
  4,254
  4,460
  4,677
  4,904
  5,143
  5,393
  5,656
  5,931
  6,221
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -490
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  654
  1,633
  1,711
  1,793
  1,879
  1,968
  2,062
  2,160
  2,263
  2,371
  2,462
  2,581
  2,705
  2,835
  2,972
  3,115
  3,265
  3,423
  3,588
  3,761
  3,943
  4,134
  4,335
  4,545
  4,766
  4,997
  5,241
  5,496
  5,764
  6,045
Discount rate, %
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  603
  1,379
  1,312
  1,237
  1,156
  1,068
  977
  884
  790
  697
  601
  515
  435
  362
  296
  237
  187
  144
  109
  80
  58
  40
  28
  18
  12
  7
  5
  3
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. The Company sells its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers. The Company's product line includes new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, temperature control, chassis parts, driveline parts and engine parts; maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products, and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories. The Company's stores offer various services and programs to its customers, such as used oil, oil filter and battery recycling; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; custom hydraulic hoses, and machine shops.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.7
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 22.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 116%
Total Debt to Equity 116%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 30.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Return On Equity 57.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
EBITDA Margin 22.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 19.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ORLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9536 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for ORLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORLY are equal to 40.5%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORLY is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $353.667 million for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.374 million for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $30.4 billion.

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