Intrinsic value of Osiris Therapeutics - OSIR

Previous Close

$10.53

  Intrinsic Value

$197.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$10.53

 
Intrinsic value

$197.01

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of OSIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  190
  293
  438
  636
  897
  1,233
  1,655
  2,173
  2,796
  3,532
  4,386
  5,362
  6,463
  7,690
  9,042
  10,518
  12,116
  13,833
  15,667
  17,615
  19,673
  21,841
  24,116
  26,497
  28,984
  31,578
  34,279
  37,089
  40,011
  43,048
Variable operating expenses, $m
  139
  214
  320
  465
  656
  901
  1,210
  1,589
  2,044
  2,582
  3,206
  3,920
  4,725
  5,622
  6,610
  7,689
  8,857
  10,112
  11,453
  12,876
  14,381
  15,966
  17,629
  19,369
  21,188
  23,083
  25,058
  27,112
  29,248
  31,468
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
Total operating expenses, $m
  174
  250
  356
  502
  694
  940
  1,250
  1,629
  2,085
  2,624
  3,249
  3,964
  4,770
  5,668
  6,657
  7,737
  8,906
  10,162
  11,504
  12,929
  14,435
  16,021
  17,685
  19,426
  21,247
  23,143
  25,119
  27,175
  29,312
  31,533
Operating income, $m
  16
  43
  82
  134
  203
  293
  406
  544
  711
  908
  1,137
  1,398
  1,694
  2,023
  2,385
  2,781
  3,210
  3,671
  4,163
  4,686
  5,238
  5,820
  6,431
  7,070
  7,738
  8,435
  9,160
  9,914
  10,699
  11,515
EBITDA, $m
  17
  45
  84
  137
  208
  299
  414
  555
  725
  926
  1,159
  1,425
  1,726
  2,061
  2,430
  2,834
  3,271
  3,740
  4,241
  4,774
  5,337
  5,929
  6,552
  7,203
  7,883
  8,592
  9,331
  10,100
  10,899
  11,730
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  9
  13
  19
  26
  34
  45
  57
  71
  87
  106
  126
  149
  173
  200
  229
  259
  292
  326
  362
  400
  440
  481
  524
  569
  616
  665
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  42
  79
  129
  195
  280
  387
  519
  677
  863
  1,080
  1,327
  1,606
  1,917
  2,259
  2,633
  3,037
  3,471
  3,935
  4,427
  4,947
  5,494
  6,069
  6,670
  7,299
  7,954
  8,636
  9,345
  10,083
  10,850
Tax expense, $m
  4
  11
  21
  35
  53
  76
  105
  140
  183
  233
  292
  358
  434
  518
  610
  711
  820
  937
  1,062
  1,195
  1,336
  1,483
  1,639
  1,801
  1,971
  2,147
  2,332
  2,523
  2,722
  2,929
Net income, $m
  12
  31
  57
  94
  142
  204
  283
  379
  494
  630
  788
  969
  1,173
  1,399
  1,649
  1,922
  2,217
  2,534
  2,872
  3,231
  3,611
  4,011
  4,430
  4,869
  5,328
  5,806
  6,304
  6,822
  7,361
  7,920

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  125
  192
  288
  417
  589
  810
  1,087
  1,427
  1,836
  2,319
  2,880
  3,521
  4,244
  5,049
  5,937
  6,906
  7,956
  9,083
  10,287
  11,566
  12,917
  14,341
  15,834
  17,398
  19,031
  20,734
  22,508
  24,353
  26,271
  28,265
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  125
  192
  288
  417
  589
  810
  1,087
  1,427
  1,836
  2,319
  2,880
  3,521
  4,244
  5,049
  5,937
  6,906
  7,956
  9,083
  10,287
  11,566
  12,917
  14,341
  15,834
  17,398
  19,031
  20,734
  22,508
  24,353
  26,271
  28,265
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.520
  1.526
  1.521
  1.525
  1.523
  1.522
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
  1.523
Average production assets, $m
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  31
  41
  54
  70
  88
  110
  134
  162
  192
  226
  263
  303
  346
  392
  440
  492
  546
  603
  662
  725
  789
  857
  927
  1,000
  1,076
Working capital, $m
  16
  25
  37
  53
  75
  104
  139
  183
  235
  297
  368
  450
  543
  646
  760
  884
  1,018
  1,162
  1,316
  1,480
  1,653
  1,835
  2,026
  2,226
  2,435
  2,653
  2,879
  3,115
  3,361
  3,616
Total debt, $m
  22
  54
  98
  159
  240
  344
  474
  634
  826
  1,053
  1,317
  1,618
  1,958
  2,336
  2,754
  3,209
  3,702
  4,232
  4,798
  5,399
  6,034
  6,703
  7,405
  8,140
  8,908
  9,708
  10,542
  11,409
  12,311
  13,248
Total liabilities, $m
  59
  90
  135
  196
  277
  381
  511
  671
  863
  1,090
  1,354
  1,655
  1,995
  2,373
  2,790
  3,246
  3,739
  4,269
  4,835
  5,436
  6,071
  6,740
  7,442
  8,177
  8,945
  9,745
  10,579
  11,446
  12,348
  13,285
Total equity, $m
  66
  102
  152
  221
  312
  429
  576
  756
  973
  1,229
  1,526
  1,866
  2,249
  2,676
  3,147
  3,660
  4,216
  4,814
  5,452
  6,130
  6,846
  7,600
  8,392
  9,221
  10,086
  10,989
  11,929
  12,907
  13,924
  14,981
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  125
  192
  287
  417
  589
  810
  1,087
  1,427
  1,836
  2,319
  2,880
  3,521
  4,244
  5,049
  5,937
  6,906
  7,955
  9,083
  10,287
  11,566
  12,917
  14,340
  15,834
  17,398
  19,031
  20,734
  22,508
  24,353
  26,272
  28,266
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.530
  0.650
  0.720
  0.770
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  31
  57
  94
  142
  204
  283
  379
  494
  630
  788
  969
  1,173
  1,399
  1,649
  1,922
  2,217
  2,534
  2,872
  3,231
  3,611
  4,011
  4,430
  4,869
  5,328
  5,806
  6,304
  6,822
  7,361
  7,920
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  132
  145
  158
  171
  185
  200
  215
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  32
  60
  97
  147
  211
  291
  389
  508
  648
  810
  996
  1,205
  1,438
  1,694
  1,974
  2,277
  2,603
  2,951
  3,320
  3,710
  4,120
  4,551
  5,002
  5,473
  5,964
  6,475
  7,007
  7,561
  8,136
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  9
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  44
  52
  62
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  173
  182
  191
  200
  209
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  24
  47
  80
  125
  182
  255
  346
  456
  586
  738
  914
  1,112
  1,335
  1,581
  1,850
  2,143
  2,459
  2,796
  3,156
  3,537
  3,938
  4,360
  4,802
  5,264
  5,746
  6,249
  6,771
  7,315
  7,881
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -145
  -158
  -171
  -185
  -200
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -194
  -210
  -226
  -241
  -258
  -276
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  20
  42
  73
  115
  169
  239
  325
  429
  554
  699
  867
  1,058
  1,272
  1,509
  1,768
  2,051
  2,355
  2,681
  3,029
  3,397
  3,785
  4,194
  4,622
  5,069
  5,536
  6,023
  6,530
  7,057
  7,605
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  32
  45
  61
  81
  104
  130
  160
  192
  227
  264
  301
  340
  379
  417
  456
  493
  530
  566
  601
  635
  669
  702
  735
  768
  800
  834
  867
  902
  937
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  37
  45
  61
  81
  104
  130
  160
  192
  227
  264
  301
  340
  379
  417
  456
  493
  530
  566
  601
  635
  669
  702
  735
  768
  800
  834
  867
  902
  937
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  57
  87
  134
  196
  273
  369
  485
  621
  781
  963
  1,169
  1,398
  1,650
  1,926
  2,224
  2,544
  2,885
  3,247
  3,630
  4,032
  4,454
  4,896
  5,357
  5,837
  6,337
  6,857
  7,397
  7,958
  8,542
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -36
  -51
  -69
  -91
  -117
  -147
  -180
  -217
  -256
  -297
  -340
  -383
  -427
  -471
  -514
  -556
  -598
  -638
  -678
  -716
  -754
  -792
  -829
  -866
  -903
  -940
  -978
  -1,017
  -1,057
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  14
  21
  37
  66
  105
  156
  222
  304
  405
  525
  666
  829
  1,015
  1,223
  1,455
  1,710
  1,988
  2,288
  2,609
  2,952
  3,316
  3,700
  4,104
  4,528
  4,971
  5,434
  5,917
  6,419
  6,942
  7,485
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  19
  32
  54
  81
  113
  150
  190
  232
  275
  316
  354
  386
  411
  427
  435
  432
  421
  402
  375
  343
  307
  269
  231
  193
  159
  127
  99
  76
  56
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.6
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8

Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes regenerative medicine products in the United States. Its products include Grafix, a cryopreserved placental membrane for treating hard-to-treat acute and chronic wounds, venous leg ulcers, and burns; BIO4, a bone allograft for use in all surgical applications, including spine, trauma, extremity, cranial, and foot and ankle surgery; and Cartiform, a viable chondral allograft that promotes articular cartilage repair to treat focal chondral defects. It markets and distributes its products directly to hospitals, clinics, and physician offices as well as through agents and distributors. Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

OSIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OSIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $118.514 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Osiris Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Osiris Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OSIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OSIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Osiris Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Osiris Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OSIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $34 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OSIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Osiris Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Osiris Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OSIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OSIR are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Osiris Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OSIR is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $41.394 million for Osiris Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.526 million for Osiris Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Osiris Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
VCEL Vericel 16.82 1.77  str.sell
MDXG MiMedx Group 6.22 5.77  buy
RTIX RTI Surgical 4.48 0.44  str.sell
CBMG Cellular Biome 17.33 0.55  str.sell
OFIX Orthofix Inter 58.64 32.95  sell
NUVA NuVasive 60.49 31.23  str.sell
WMGI Wright Medical 28.64 0.98  str.sell
GMED Globus Medical 51.50 28.58  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Osiris: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-07-18 07:43PM  Associated Press]

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.