Intrinsic value of Overstock.com - OSTK

Previous Close

$77.65

  Intrinsic Value

$7.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$77.65

 
Intrinsic value

$7.77

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OSTK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,800
  1,836
  1,878
  1,926
  1,981
  2,041
  2,107
  2,178
  2,256
  2,340
  2,429
  2,526
  2,628
  2,737
  2,853
  2,976
  3,107
  3,245
  3,391
  3,545
  3,708
  3,880
  4,061
  4,252
  4,453
  4,665
  4,889
  5,124
  5,371
  5,631
  5,905
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,759
  1,799
  1,845
  1,897
  1,955
  2,018
  2,087
  2,161
  2,241
  2,327
  2,417
  2,515
  2,620
  2,731
  2,849
  2,974
  3,106
  3,246
  3,393
  3,549
  3,714
  3,887
  4,070
  4,263
  4,466
  4,679
  4,904
  5,141
  5,390
  5,652
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,796
  1,835
  1,877
  1,925
  1,979
  2,039
  2,104
  2,175
  2,251
  2,333
  2,422
  2,514
  2,615
  2,722
  2,836
  2,956
  3,084
  3,219
  3,361
  3,511
  3,670
  3,838
  4,014
  4,201
  4,397
  4,603
  4,820
  5,048
  5,289
  5,541
  5,807
Operating income, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  90
  98
EBITDA, $m
  35
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  90
  98
  106
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  77
Tax expense, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
Net income, $m
  13
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  183
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  485
  308
  315
  323
  332
  342
  353
  365
  379
  393
  408
  424
  441
  459
  479
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  901
  945
  991
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  302
  308
  315
  323
  332
  342
  353
  365
  379
  393
  408
  424
  441
  459
  479
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  901
  945
  991
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  5.960
  5.961
  5.962
  5.963
  5.967
  5.968
  5.969
  5.967
  5.953
  5.954
  5.953
  5.958
  5.959
  5.963
  5.956
  5.964
  5.964
  5.965
  5.960
  5.958
  5.961
  5.960
  5.963
  5.964
  5.961
  5.958
  5.962
  5.958
  5.961
  5.959
  5.959
Average production assets, $m
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -189
  -193
  -198
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
Total debt, $m
  59
  26
  33
  40
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  116
  130
  146
  162
  180
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  309
  335
  362
  391
  421
  454
  487
  523
  560
  599
  641
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  277
  284
  291
  299
  308
  318
  329
  341
  353
  367
  381
  397
  413
  431
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  560
  586
  613
  642
  672
  705
  738
  774
  811
  850
  892
Total equity, $m
  175
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  485
  308
  316
  323
  332
  342
  353
  366
  379
  392
  408
  423
  441
  459
  479
  499
  521
  544
  569
  594
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  901
  944
  991
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.337
  0.850
  1.040
  1.230
  1.450
  1.670
  1.900
  2.130
  2.370
  2.610
  2.840
  3.080
  3.310
  3.530
  3.760
  3.970
  4.180
  4.390
  4.590
  4.780
  4.970
  5.140
  5.320
  5.480
  5.640
  5.790
  5.940
  6.080
  6.210
  6.340
  6.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.026
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  7
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  -30
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  36
  0
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  6
  6
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -36
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  155
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  149
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  49.9
  49.8
  49.7
  49.6
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5
  49.5

Overstock.com, Inc. is an online retailer and incubator of blockchain technology. Through its online retail business, the Company offers a range of price-competitive brand name, non-brand name and closeout products, including furniture, home decor, bedding and bath, housewares, jewelry and watches, apparel and designer accessories, health and beauty products, electronics and computers, and sporting goods. It operates Retail and Medici businesses. Its Retail business consists of its Direct and Partner segments. Its Other segment consists of Medici. The Company also sells various books, magazines, compact discs (CDs), digital versatile discs (DVDs) and video games. The Company sells these products and services through its Internet Websites located at www.overstock.com, www.o.co and www.o.biz. The Company's other offerings include Worldstock Fair Trade, Main Street Revolution, Farmers Market, Pet Adoptions, Insurance and Supplier Oasis.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Overstock.com (OSTK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 151.9
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 11.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 49.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -61.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 61
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 32%
Total Debt to Equity 33.7%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 3.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 47.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

OSTK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OSTK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Overstock.com. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Overstock.com. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OSTK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OSTK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Overstock.com, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Overstock.com.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OSTK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $74 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OSTK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Overstock.com.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Overstock.com. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OSTK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OSTK are equal to 0.7%.

Life of production assets of 0.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Overstock.com operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OSTK is equal to -10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $175 million for Overstock.com - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.822 million for Overstock.com is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Overstock.com at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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Financial statements of OSTK
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