Intrinsic value of Otonomy - OTIC

Previous Close

$2.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$2.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.96

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OTIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Variable operating expenses, $m
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  237
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  502
  525
  551
  577
  605
  634
  665
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  237
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  502
  525
  551
  577
  605
  634
  665
Operating income, $m
  -205
  -210
  -216
  -222
  -228
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -363
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -455
  -476
  -498
  -522
  -547
  -573
  -601
  -630
  -661
EBITDA, $m
  -204
  -209
  -214
  -220
  -227
  -234
  -242
  -251
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -305
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -627
  -657
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -205
  -210
  -216
  -222
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -632
  -663
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -205
  -210
  -216
  -222
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -632
  -663

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.053
  0.050
  0.050
  0.048
  0.045
  0.045
  0.043
  0.083
  0.080
  0.077
  0.074
  0.071
  0.069
  0.067
  0.065
  0.061
  0.059
  0.056
  0.054
  0.077
  0.073
  0.070
  0.067
  0.064
  0.061
  0.058
  0.074
  0.070
  0.068
  0.065
Average production assets, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Working capital, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Total debt, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
Total liabilities, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Total equity, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  62
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.530
  0.580
  0.630
  0.680
  0.740
  0.790
  0.850
  0.910
  0.970
  1.030
  1.090
  1.150
  1.200
  1.260
  1.310
  1.370
  1.420
  1.470
  1.510
  1.560
  1.610
  1.650
  1.690
  1.730
  1.770
  1.800
  1.840
  1.870
  1.910
  1.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -205
  -210
  -216
  -222
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -632
  -663
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  -204
  -209
  -215
  -221
  -227
  -235
  -243
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -281
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -433
  -453
  -474
  -497
  -520
  -545
  -571
  -599
  -628
  -659
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -204
  -209
  -214
  -220
  -227
  -234
  -242
  -251
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -305
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -627
  -657
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -206
  -210
  -216
  -222
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -455
  -477
  -499
  -523
  -548
  -574
  -602
  -631
  -662
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  207
  211
  216
  222
  229
  236
  244
  253
  262
  273
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  381
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  576
  603
  633
  663
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  210
  211
  216
  222
  229
  237
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
  605
  635
  665
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -207
  -211
  -216
  -222
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -273
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -364
  -381
  -398
  -416
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -500
  -524
  -549
  -576
  -603
  -633
  -663
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -90
  -210
  -215
  -221
  -228
  -235
  -243
  -252
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -546
  -573
  -600
  -629
  -660
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -87
  -192
  -187
  -182
  -177
  -171
  -164
  -158
  -150
  -142
  -134
  -125
  -116
  -107
  -98
  -88
  -79
  -70
  -61
  -53
  -45
  -38
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  1.4
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Otonomy, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for diseases and disorders of the ear. The Company's product candidates include OTIPRIO, OTO-104 and OTO-311. OTIPRIO is a single-dose, physician-administered antibacterial, which is used for the treatment of pediatric patients with bilateral otitis media with effusion undergoing tympanostomy tube placement (TTP) surgery and is available for commercial purchase. OTO-104 is a sustained-exposure formulation of the steroid dexamethasone in development for the treatment of Meniere's disease and other inner ear conditions. OTO-311 is a sustained-exposure formulation of the N-Methyl-D-Aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist gacyclidine in development for the treatment of tinnitus. It also has various other product candidates, which target sensorinerual hearing loss, including age-related hearing loss, also known as presbycusis.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Otonomy (OTIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.6
Price to Sales 69.6
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -55.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.6%
Return On Total Capital -59.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.1%
Return On Equity -59.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
EBITDA Margin -11000%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3666.7%
Operating Margin -11100%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3700%
Pre-Tax Margin -11100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3700%
Net Profit Margin -11100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3700%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

OTIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OTIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1.236 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Otonomy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Otonomy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OTIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OTIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Otonomy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Otonomy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OTIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16400%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OTIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Otonomy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Otonomy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OTIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OTIC are equal to 482.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Otonomy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OTIC is equal to -690.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $117.279 million for Otonomy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.63 million for Otonomy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Otonomy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Otonomy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Who Owns Otonomy Inc (NASDAQ:OTIC)?   [Sep-18-18 01:57PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Otonomy: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Otonomy, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Otonomy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Otonomy reports 4Q loss   [Mar-08-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Otonomy, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Otonomy Inc (NASDAQ:OTIC): Financial Strength Analysis   [Feb-09-18 10:12AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Otonomy Provides Corporate and Product Pipeline Update   [Jan-09-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Otonomy to Present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference   [Jan-04-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : December 28, 2017   [Dec-28-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Otonomy to Present at Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference   [Nov-22-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Otonomy Gets Another Vote of Confidence from SunTrust   [Nov-10-17 10:16AM  SmarterAnalyst]
▶ Why Otonomy Shares Are Skyrocketing   [09:20AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Otonomy reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 12:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Bottom Fishing With Cash-Rich Biotechs   [Sep-27-17 07:15PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Otonomy Provides Business and Financial Update   [Sep-13-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : August 31, 2017   [Aug-31-17 07:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Long and Short of Biotech Stocks   [12:14PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 01:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Otonomy, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Otonomy reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 07:03PM  Associated Press]

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