Intrinsic value of Outfront Media - OUT

Previous Close

$20.87

  Intrinsic Value

$15.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$20.87

 
Intrinsic value

$15.95

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OUT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OUT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,551
  1,587
  1,627
  1,673
  1,724
  1,780
  1,840
  1,906
  1,976
  2,052
  2,133
  2,220
  2,312
  2,410
  2,514
  2,624
  2,741
  2,864
  2,995
  3,132
  3,277
  3,430
  3,592
  3,762
  3,941
  4,130
  4,328
  4,537
  4,757
  4,988
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,336
  1,361
  1,389
  1,420
  1,455
  1,493
  1,535
  1,580
  1,628
  1,680
  1,465
  1,525
  1,588
  1,655
  1,727
  1,802
  1,883
  1,967
  2,057
  2,151
  2,251
  2,356
  2,467
  2,584
  2,707
  2,836
  2,973
  3,116
  3,267
  3,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,336
  1,361
  1,389
  1,420
  1,455
  1,493
  1,535
  1,580
  1,628
  1,680
  1,465
  1,525
  1,588
  1,655
  1,727
  1,802
  1,883
  1,967
  2,057
  2,151
  2,251
  2,356
  2,467
  2,584
  2,707
  2,836
  2,973
  3,116
  3,267
  3,426
Operating income, $m
  215
  226
  239
  253
  269
  286
  305
  326
  348
  372
  668
  695
  724
  755
  787
  822
  858
  897
  938
  981
  1,026
  1,074
  1,125
  1,178
  1,234
  1,293
  1,355
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
EBITDA, $m
  602
  615
  631
  649
  669
  690
  714
  739
  767
  796
  827
  861
  897
  935
  975
  1,018
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,215
  1,271
  1,331
  1,393
  1,459
  1,529
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,845
  1,935
Interest expense (income), $m
  111
  120
  123
  126
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  299
  314
  330
  346
  364
  382
  402
  422
Earnings before tax, $m
  95
  103
  112
  123
  134
  147
  161
  176
  192
  209
  498
  518
  538
  561
  584
  609
  635
  663
  692
  723
  756
  790
  826
  864
  905
  947
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,139
Tax expense, $m
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  52
  56
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  280
  294
  308
Net income, $m
  69
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  128
  140
  153
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  444
  464
  484
  505
  528
  552
  577
  603
  631
  660
  691
  724
  758
  794
  832

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,887
  3,976
  4,079
  4,193
  4,320
  4,460
  4,612
  4,776
  4,953
  5,143
  5,347
  5,564
  5,795
  6,040
  6,301
  6,577
  6,869
  7,179
  7,505
  7,850
  8,214
  8,598
  9,002
  9,428
  9,877
  10,350
  10,847
  11,371
  11,921
  12,500
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,887
  3,976
  4,079
  4,193
  4,320
  4,460
  4,612
  4,776
  4,953
  5,143
  5,347
  5,564
  5,795
  6,040
  6,301
  6,577
  6,869
  7,179
  7,505
  7,850
  8,214
  8,598
  9,002
  9,428
  9,877
  10,350
  10,847
  11,371
  11,921
  12,500
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
Average production assets, $m
  2,039
  2,086
  2,140
  2,200
  2,267
  2,340
  2,420
  2,506
  2,599
  2,699
  2,805
  2,919
  3,040
  3,169
  3,306
  3,451
  3,604
  3,766
  3,938
  4,119
  4,310
  4,511
  4,723
  4,947
  5,182
  5,430
  5,691
  5,966
  6,255
  6,559
Working capital, $m
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Total debt, $m
  2,280
  2,342
  2,412
  2,492
  2,579
  2,676
  2,780
  2,894
  3,016
  3,147
  3,288
  3,437
  3,597
  3,766
  3,946
  4,136
  4,338
  4,551
  4,777
  5,015
  5,266
  5,531
  5,810
  6,104
  6,413
  6,739
  7,083
  7,444
  7,824
  8,223
Total liabilities, $m
  2,682
  2,744
  2,814
  2,893
  2,981
  3,077
  3,182
  3,296
  3,418
  3,549
  3,689
  3,839
  3,998
  4,168
  4,348
  4,538
  4,740
  4,953
  5,179
  5,416
  5,668
  5,932
  6,211
  6,505
  6,815
  7,141
  7,484
  7,846
  8,226
  8,625
Total equity, $m
  1,205
  1,233
  1,264
  1,300
  1,339
  1,383
  1,430
  1,481
  1,536
  1,594
  1,658
  1,725
  1,796
  1,873
  1,953
  2,039
  2,130
  2,225
  2,327
  2,433
  2,546
  2,665
  2,791
  2,923
  3,062
  3,208
  3,363
  3,525
  3,696
  3,875
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,887
  3,977
  4,078
  4,193
  4,320
  4,460
  4,612
  4,777
  4,954
  5,143
  5,347
  5,564
  5,794
  6,041
  6,301
  6,577
  6,870
  7,178
  7,506
  7,849
  8,214
  8,597
  9,002
  9,428
  9,877
  10,349
  10,847
  11,371
  11,922
  12,500
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  69
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  128
  140
  153
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  444
  464
  484
  505
  528
  552
  577
  603
  631
  660
  691
  724
  758
  794
  832
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  387
  389
  392
  396
  400
  404
  408
  413
  419
  424
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  309
  323
  339
  355
  373
Funds from operations, $m
  456
  464
  474
  486
  498
  511
  526
  542
  559
  577
  523
  544
  566
  589
  614
  640
  668
  698
  729
  762
  796
  833
  871
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  454
  462
  472
  482
  494
  507
  522
  537
  554
  571
  517
  538
  559
  582
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  942
  986
  1,033
  1,082
  1,134
  1,188
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -355
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -492
  -517
  -542
  -570
  -598
  -628
  -659
Free cash flow, $m
  300
  299
  299
  301
  302
  305
  309
  313
  318
  324
  257
  264
  272
  281
  290
  300
  311
  322
  334
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  444
  463
  484
  506
  529
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  62
  71
  79
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  62
  71
  79
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  355
  361
  370
  380
  390
  402
  414
  427
  440
  455
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  702
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
  928
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  331
  333
  338
  344
  351
  358
  367
  376
  386
  396
  335
  347
  360
  374
  389
  405
  422
  440
  458
  478
  499
  522
  545
  570
  596
  624
  653
  683
  715
  749
Discount rate, %
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  302
  274
  249
  224
  200
  177
  155
  134
  114
  96
  66
  54
  44
  35
  27
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

OUTFRONT Media Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which provides advertising space (displays) on out-of-home advertising structures and sites in the United States and Canada. The Company's segments are U.S. Media and Other. The U.S. Media segment includes U.S. Billboard and Transit. The Other segment includes International and Sports Marketing. The Company's inventory consists of billboard displays, which are primarily located on the heavily traveled highways and roadways in Nielsen Designated Market Areas (DMAs), and transit advertising displays operated under multi-year contracts with municipalities in cities across the United States and Canada. The Company also has marketing and multimedia rights agreements with colleges, universities and other educational institutions, which entitle the Company to operate on-campus advertising displays, as well as manage marketing opportunities, media rights and experiential entertainment at sports events.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Outfront Media (OUT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.7
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 173.3%
Total Debt to Equity 173.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity 7.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
EBITDA Margin 28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate 5.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -74%
Payout Ratio 207.7%

OUT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OUT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1520.5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Outfront Media. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Outfront Media. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OUT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for OUT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Outfront Media, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Outfront Media.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OUT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OUT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Outfront Media.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Outfront Media. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OUT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OUT are equal to 131.5%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Outfront Media operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OUT is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1181.1 million for Outfront Media - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 139.27 million for Outfront Media is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Outfront Media at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Shares of Outfront Media Popped Today   [Nov-06-18 01:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Outfront Media: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ How To Look At Outfront Media Inc (NYSE:OUT)   [Nov-02-18 01:11PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ OUTFRONT Media Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-23-18 09:53AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Outfront Media Inc (NYSE:OUT) Undervalued?   [Sep-13-18 02:44PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Outfront Media Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [Aug-09-18 04:44PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Outfront Media: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ OUTFRONT Media Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-24-18 02:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The Next GE? Avoid These 5 Dicey Dividends   [02:10PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Outfront Media: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ OUTFRONT Media Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-25-18 12:57PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Breaking Down Outdoorzy SA.s (WSE:OUT) Ownership Structure   [Mar-11-18 09:14AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 125 billboards (in and) outside of Boston, Mass.: MBTA mulls digitizing signs   [Mar-07-18 03:27PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Outfront Media reports 4Q results   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heres Why You Should Keep Adding REITs to Your Portfolio   [Jan-25-18 11:05AM  InvestorPlace]

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