Intrinsic value of Oxford Immunotec Global PLC - OXFD

Previous Close

$18.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$18.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.79

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OXFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  178
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  354
  373
  392
  412
  433
  456
  479
  503
  529
Variable operating expenses, $m
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292
  308
  325
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  491
  516
  543
  570
  600
  630
  662
  696
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292
  308
  325
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  491
  516
  543
  570
  600
  630
  662
  696
Operating income, $m
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
EBITDA, $m
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  392
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  392
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.341
  1.345
  1.344
  1.343
  1.343
  1.351
  1.347
  1.352
  1.348
  1.350
  1.345
  1.346
  1.345
  1.345
  1.350
  1.347
  1.350
  1.350
  1.351
  1.350
  1.348
  1.346
  1.351
  1.352
  1.351
  1.349
  1.353
  1.349
  1.349
  1.349
Average production assets, $m
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Working capital, $m
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total debt, $m
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
Total liabilities, $m
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
Total equity, $m
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  204
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  391
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.600
  1.680
  1.750
  1.820
  1.880
  1.940
  1.990
  2.040
  2.080
  2.130
  2.170
  2.200
  2.240
  2.270
  2.300
  2.330
  2.360
  2.380
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.520
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.590
  2.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  40
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  44
  46
  49
  52
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  212
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  33
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  31
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  73.0
  53.3
  38.9
  28.4
  20.7
  15.1
  11.0
  8.0
  5.8
  4.2
  3.1
  2.3
  1.6
  1.2
  0.9
  0.6
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
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Oxford Immunotec Global PLC is a diagnostics company. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing tests for under-served immune-regulated conditions. The Company's product lines and development activities principally focus on four areas: infectious diseases, transplantation, autoimmune and inflammatory disease and immune-oncology. Its T-SPOT.TB test is used to test for tuberculosis (TB), infection and leverages its T-SPOT technology platform, which allows it to measure the response of specific immune cells to inform the diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring of patients with immune-regulated conditions. It offers a range of assays for tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, obtained through the acquisitions of Imugen and Immunetics. It has a series of assays for use in blood screening, building upon its expertise in tick-borne disease. Its T-SPOT. CMV and T-SPOT. PRT tests are part of its product line focused on the transplantation market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oxford Immunotec Global PLC (OXFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.5
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -18.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Return On Total Capital -22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28%
Return On Equity -26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53%
EBITDA Margin -26.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.9%
Operating Margin -30.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Net Profit Margin -25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

OXFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OXFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $103 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oxford Immunotec Global PLC. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Oxford Immunotec Global PLC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OXFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OXFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oxford Immunotec Global PLC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oxford Immunotec Global PLC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OXFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 132%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OXFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.4% for Oxford Immunotec Global PLC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oxford Immunotec Global PLC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OXFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OXFD are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oxford Immunotec Global PLC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OXFD is equal to 7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $87.629 million for Oxford Immunotec Global PLC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.440 million for Oxford Immunotec Global PLC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oxford Immunotec Global PLC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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