Intrinsic value of Patrick Industries - PATK

Previous Close

$68.00

  Intrinsic Value

$90.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+33%

Previous close

$68.00

 
Intrinsic value

$90.67

 
Up/down potential

+33%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PATK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.83
  34.20
  31.28
  28.65
  26.29
  24.16
  22.24
  20.52
  18.97
  17.57
  16.31
  15.18
  14.16
  13.25
  12.42
  11.68
  11.01
  10.41
  9.87
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
Revenue, $m
  1,222
  1,640
  2,153
  2,770
  3,498
  4,343
  5,309
  6,398
  7,611
  8,949
  10,409
  11,989
  13,687
  15,500
  17,425
  19,461
  21,604
  23,853
  26,207
  28,666
  31,230
  33,900
  36,678
  39,567
  42,569
  45,689
  48,931
  52,301
  55,804
  59,447
  63,237
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,512
  1,981
  2,545
  3,211
  3,985
  4,869
  5,865
  6,975
  8,199
  9,535
  10,970
  12,523
  14,182
  15,944
  17,806
  19,767
  21,825
  23,979
  26,229
  28,575
  31,018
  33,560
  36,203
  38,950
  41,805
  44,772
  47,855
  51,060
  54,394
  57,862
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,131
  1,512
  1,981
  2,545
  3,211
  3,985
  4,869
  5,865
  6,975
  8,199
  9,535
  10,970
  12,523
  14,182
  15,944
  17,806
  19,767
  21,825
  23,979
  26,229
  28,575
  31,018
  33,560
  36,203
  38,950
  41,805
  44,772
  47,855
  51,060
  54,394
  57,862
Operating income, $m
  91
  128
  172
  224
  286
  358
  440
  533
  636
  750
  874
  1,019
  1,163
  1,318
  1,481
  1,654
  1,836
  2,028
  2,228
  2,437
  2,655
  2,882
  3,118
  3,363
  3,618
  3,884
  4,159
  4,446
  4,743
  5,053
  5,375
EBITDA, $m
  115
  161
  211
  272
  343
  426
  520
  627
  746
  877
  1,020
  1,175
  1,342
  1,520
  1,708
  1,908
  2,118
  2,338
  2,569
  2,810
  3,062
  3,323
  3,596
  3,879
  4,173
  4,479
  4,797
  5,127
  5,471
  5,828
  6,200
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  9
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  50
  60
  72
  85
  100
  115
  132
  150
  169
  189
  210
  232
  255
  280
  305
  331
  359
  387
  417
  447
  479
  512
  547
  583
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  119
  159
  206
  262
  326
  400
  483
  576
  677
  788
  919
  1,048
  1,185
  1,331
  1,485
  1,647
  1,817
  1,995
  2,181
  2,375
  2,577
  2,787
  3,005
  3,231
  3,467
  3,712
  3,966
  4,231
  4,506
  4,792
Tax expense, $m
  28
  32
  43
  56
  71
  88
  108
  130
  155
  183
  213
  248
  283
  320
  359
  401
  445
  491
  539
  589
  641
  696
  752
  811
  872
  936
  1,002
  1,071
  1,142
  1,217
  1,294
Net income, $m
  56
  87
  116
  150
  191
  238
  292
  353
  420
  494
  575
  671
  765
  865
  972
  1,084
  1,203
  1,327
  1,457
  1,592
  1,734
  1,881
  2,034
  2,193
  2,359
  2,531
  2,710
  2,896
  3,089
  3,290
  3,498

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  535
  710
  932
  1,199
  1,514
  1,880
  2,298
  2,770
  3,295
  3,874
  4,506
  5,190
  5,925
  6,710
  7,543
  8,424
  9,352
  10,326
  11,345
  12,409
  13,519
  14,675
  15,878
  17,128
  18,428
  19,779
  21,182
  22,641
  24,158
  25,735
  27,375
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  529
  710
  932
  1,199
  1,514
  1,880
  2,298
  2,770
  3,295
  3,874
  4,506
  5,190
  5,925
  6,710
  7,543
  8,424
  9,352
  10,326
  11,345
  12,409
  13,519
  14,675
  15,878
  17,128
  18,428
  19,779
  21,182
  22,641
  24,158
  25,735
  27,375
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
Average production assets, $m
  179
  239
  314
  404
  511
  634
  775
  934
  1,111
  1,307
  1,520
  1,750
  1,998
  2,263
  2,544
  2,841
  3,154
  3,482
  3,826
  4,185
  4,560
  4,949
  5,355
  5,777
  6,215
  6,671
  7,144
  7,636
  8,147
  8,679
  9,233
Working capital, $m
  87
  130
  170
  219
  276
  343
  419
  505
  601
  707
  822
  947
  1,081
  1,224
  1,377
  1,537
  1,707
  1,884
  2,070
  2,265
  2,467
  2,678
  2,898
  3,126
  3,363
  3,609
  3,866
  4,132
  4,409
  4,696
  4,996
Total debt, $m
  273
  384
  529
  702
  907
  1,145
  1,417
  1,723
  2,065
  2,441
  2,852
  3,296
  3,774
  4,284
  4,826
  5,399
  6,002
  6,635
  7,297
  7,989
  8,711
  9,462
  10,244
  11,056
  11,901
  12,779
  13,691
  14,640
  15,625
  16,650
  17,717
Total liabilities, $m
  350
  461
  606
  779
  984
  1,222
  1,494
  1,800
  2,142
  2,518
  2,929
  3,373
  3,851
  4,361
  4,903
  5,476
  6,079
  6,712
  7,374
  8,066
  8,788
  9,539
  10,321
  11,133
  11,978
  12,856
  13,768
  14,717
  15,702
  16,727
  17,794
Total equity, $m
  185
  248
  326
  420
  530
  658
  804
  969
  1,153
  1,356
  1,577
  1,816
  2,074
  2,348
  2,640
  2,949
  3,273
  3,614
  3,971
  4,343
  4,732
  5,136
  5,557
  5,995
  6,450
  6,923
  7,414
  7,924
  8,455
  9,007
  9,581
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  535
  709
  932
  1,199
  1,514
  1,880
  2,298
  2,769
  3,295
  3,874
  4,506
  5,189
  5,925
  6,709
  7,543
  8,425
  9,352
  10,326
  11,345
  12,409
  13,520
  14,675
  15,878
  17,128
  18,428
  19,779
  21,182
  22,641
  24,157
  25,734
  27,375
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.476
  1.550
  1.620
  1.670
  1.710
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.338
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  87
  116
  150
  191
  238
  292
  353
  420
  494
  575
  671
  765
  865
  972
  1,084
  1,203
  1,327
  1,457
  1,592
  1,734
  1,881
  2,034
  2,193
  2,359
  2,531
  2,710
  2,896
  3,089
  3,290
  3,498
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  32
  39
  47
  57
  68
  80
  94
  110
  128
  147
  156
  178
  202
  227
  254
  282
  311
  342
  374
  407
  442
  478
  516
  555
  596
  638
  682
  727
  775
  824
Funds from operations, $m
  107
  119
  155
  197
  248
  306
  372
  447
  530
  622
  722
  827
  943
  1,067
  1,199
  1,338
  1,484
  1,638
  1,798
  1,966
  2,141
  2,323
  2,512
  2,709
  2,914
  3,127
  3,348
  3,577
  3,816
  4,064
  4,323
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  33
  41
  49
  58
  67
  76
  86
  96
  106
  115
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  169
  178
  186
  194
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
Cash from operations, $m
  97
  86
  114
  149
  190
  239
  296
  361
  435
  517
  607
  703
  809
  924
  1,047
  1,177
  1,315
  1,460
  1,612
  1,772
  1,938
  2,112
  2,293
  2,481
  2,677
  2,880
  3,091
  3,311
  3,539
  3,777
  4,023
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -178
  -202
  -227
  -254
  -282
  -311
  -342
  -374
  -407
  -442
  -478
  -516
  -555
  -596
  -638
  -682
  -727
  -775
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -61
  -75
  -90
  -106
  -123
  -141
  -159
  -177
  -195
  -213
  -231
  -248
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -422
  -438
  -456
  -473
  -492
  -511
  -532
  -553
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -77
  -96
  -118
  -142
  -169
  -198
  -228
  -260
  -294
  -330
  -367
  -404
  -443
  -483
  -524
  -567
  -610
  -655
  -701
  -748
  -797
  -848
  -900
  -954
  -1,011
  -1,069
  -1,130
  -1,193
  -1,259
  -1,328
Free cash flow, $m
  -57
  9
  18
  31
  48
  70
  98
  133
  174
  222
  277
  336
  405
  481
  564
  653
  748
  850
  958
  1,071
  1,190
  1,315
  1,445
  1,581
  1,723
  1,870
  2,022
  2,181
  2,346
  2,517
  2,695
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  69
  117
  144
  174
  205
  238
  272
  307
  341
  376
  411
  445
  478
  510
  542
  573
  603
  633
  662
  692
  721
  751
  782
  813
  845
  878
  912
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,066
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  117
  144
  174
  205
  238
  272
  307
  341
  376
  411
  445
  478
  510
  542
  573
  603
  633
  662
  692
  721
  751
  782
  813
  845
  878
  912
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,066
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  127
  162
  204
  253
  308
  370
  439
  515
  598
  688
  781
  883
  991
  1,105
  1,226
  1,351
  1,483
  1,620
  1,763
  1,912
  2,066
  2,227
  2,394
  2,567
  2,748
  2,935
  3,129
  3,332
  3,542
  3,762
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -56
  -63
  -78
  -93
  -110
  -128
  -146
  -165
  -184
  -203
  -221
  -239
  -257
  -275
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -373
  -388
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -455
  -473
  -491
  -511
  -531
  -552
  -574
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  63
  85
  111
  142
  180
  224
  274
  332
  396
  467
  541
  626
  717
  814
  917
  1,027
  1,142
  1,263
  1,390
  1,523
  1,662
  1,806
  1,956
  2,112
  2,275
  2,444
  2,619
  2,801
  2,990
  3,187
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  59
  73
  87
  102
  116
  128
  139
  147
  152
  153
  150
  144
  136
  125
  112
  98
  84
  70
  57
  45
  35
  26
  19
  14
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Patrick Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of component products and distributor of building products and materials for the recreational vehicle (RV) and manufactured housing (MH) industrial markets for customers throughout the United States and Canada. In addition, it is a supplier to certain other industrial markets, such as kitchen cabinet, office and household furniture, fixtures and commercial furnishings, marine, and other industrial markets. The Company's segments include Manufacturing and Distribution. It manufactures a range of products, which include decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels, solid surface, granite and quartz countertops, fabricated aluminum products, wrapped vinyl, paper and hardwood profile mouldings, slide-out trim and fascia, cabinet doors and components, hardwood furniture, fiberglass and plastic component products including front and rear caps and marine helms, interior passage doors, RV painting, and slotwall panels and components, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Patrick Industries (PATK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 87.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 147.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Equity 35.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PATK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PATK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1222 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Patrick Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Patrick Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PATK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for PATK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Patrick Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Patrick Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PATK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PATK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Patrick Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Patrick Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PATK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PATK are equal to 14.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Patrick Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PATK is equal to 7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $185 million for Patrick Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.342 million for Patrick Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Patrick Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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Financial statements of PATK
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