Intrinsic value of Patrick Industries - PATK

Previous Close

$42.28

  Intrinsic Value

$231.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+447%

Previous close

$42.28

 
Intrinsic value

$231.32

 
Up/down potential

+447%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PATK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.60
  44.24
  40.32
  36.78
  33.61
  30.75
  28.17
  25.85
  23.77
  21.89
  20.20
  18.68
  17.31
  16.08
  14.97
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.54
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
Revenue, $m
  2,431
  3,506
  4,919
  6,729
  8,990
  11,754
  15,065
  18,960
  23,467
  28,604
  34,383
  40,806
  47,872
  55,571
  63,892
  72,822
  82,346
  92,451
  103,124
  114,354
  126,133
  138,457
  151,325
  164,739
  178,705
  193,234
  208,339
  224,038
  240,352
  257,306
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,223
  3,186
  4,451
  6,071
  8,095
  10,569
  13,533
  17,020
  21,054
  25,653
  30,779
  36,529
  42,853
  49,745
  57,194
  65,188
  73,714
  82,760
  92,314
  102,367
  112,911
  123,943
  135,462
  147,470
  159,972
  172,978
  186,500
  200,553
  215,157
  230,333
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,225
  3,188
  4,453
  6,073
  8,097
  10,571
  13,535
  17,022
  21,056
  25,655
  30,782
  36,532
  42,856
  49,748
  57,197
  65,191
  73,717
  82,763
  92,317
  102,370
  112,914
  123,946
  135,465
  147,473
  159,975
  172,982
  186,504
  200,557
  215,161
  230,337
Operating income, $m
  206
  318
  466
  656
  893
  1,183
  1,530
  1,938
  2,410
  2,949
  3,602
  4,275
  5,016
  5,823
  6,695
  7,631
  8,629
  9,688
  10,807
  11,984
  13,219
  14,511
  15,860
  17,266
  18,730
  20,253
  21,836
  23,482
  25,192
  26,969
EBITDA, $m
  283
  409
  575
  787
  1,052
  1,376
  1,764
  2,220
  2,748
  3,351
  4,028
  4,781
  5,609
  6,511
  7,487
  8,533
  9,650
  10,834
  12,085
  13,402
  14,782
  16,227
  17,735
  19,308
  20,945
  22,648
  24,418
  26,258
  28,171
  30,158
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  19
  32
  50
  73
  102
  139
  185
  239
  303
  376
  460
  555
  660
  776
  901
  1,038
  1,184
  1,340
  1,505
  1,679
  1,863
  2,056
  2,258
  2,468
  2,687
  2,916
  3,154
  3,401
  3,658
  3,925
Earnings before tax, $m
  186
  286
  417
  583
  791
  1,043
  1,345
  1,699
  2,108
  2,573
  3,141
  3,720
  4,356
  5,047
  5,793
  6,593
  7,446
  8,349
  9,302
  10,305
  11,356
  12,455
  13,602
  14,798
  16,042
  17,337
  18,682
  20,081
  21,534
  23,044
Tax expense, $m
  50
  77
  113
  157
  213
  282
  363
  459
  569
  695
  848
  1,004
  1,176
  1,363
  1,564
  1,780
  2,010
  2,254
  2,512
  2,782
  3,066
  3,363
  3,673
  3,995
  4,331
  4,681
  5,044
  5,422
  5,814
  6,222
Net income, $m
  136
  209
  304
  426
  577
  762
  982
  1,240
  1,539
  1,878
  2,293
  2,716
  3,180
  3,684
  4,229
  4,813
  5,435
  6,095
  6,791
  7,523
  8,290
  9,092
  9,930
  10,802
  11,711
  12,656
  13,638
  14,659
  15,720
  16,822

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,287
  1,857
  2,606
  3,564
  4,762
  6,226
  7,980
  10,043
  12,430
  15,151
  18,211
  21,614
  25,356
  29,434
  33,841
  38,571
  43,616
  48,968
  54,621
  60,569
  66,808
  73,336
  80,151
  87,256
  94,653
  102,349
  110,349
  118,664
  127,305
  136,285
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,287
  1,857
  2,606
  3,564
  4,762
  6,226
  7,980
  10,043
  12,430
  15,151
  18,211
  21,614
  25,356
  29,434
  33,841
  38,571
  43,616
  48,968
  54,621
  60,569
  66,808
  73,336
  80,151
  87,256
  94,653
  102,349
  110,349
  118,664
  127,305
  136,285
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.889
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
  1.888
Average production assets, $m
  428
  617
  866
  1,184
  1,582
  2,069
  2,652
  3,337
  4,130
  5,034
  6,051
  7,182
  8,425
  9,780
  11,245
  12,817
  14,493
  16,271
  18,150
  20,126
  22,199
  24,369
  26,633
  28,994
  31,452
  34,009
  36,668
  39,431
  42,302
  45,286
Working capital, $m
  224
  323
  453
  619
  827
  1,081
  1,386
  1,744
  2,159
  2,632
  3,163
  3,754
  4,404
  5,112
  5,878
  6,700
  7,576
  8,506
  9,487
  10,521
  11,604
  12,738
  13,922
  15,156
  16,441
  17,778
  19,167
  20,612
  22,112
  23,672
Total debt, $m
  594
  920
  1,348
  1,897
  2,582
  3,419
  4,422
  5,602
  6,968
  8,524
  10,275
  12,221
  14,361
  16,694
  19,215
  21,921
  24,806
  27,868
  31,101
  34,503
  38,072
  41,806
  45,704
  49,768
  54,000
  58,401
  62,978
  67,734
  72,676
  77,813
Total liabilities, $m
  736
  1,062
  1,490
  2,039
  2,724
  3,561
  4,564
  5,744
  7,110
  8,666
  10,417
  12,363
  14,503
  16,836
  19,357
  22,063
  24,948
  28,010
  31,243
  34,645
  38,214
  41,948
  45,846
  49,910
  54,142
  58,543
  63,120
  67,876
  72,819
  77,955
Total equity, $m
  551
  795
  1,115
  1,525
  2,038
  2,665
  3,415
  4,298
  5,320
  6,484
  7,794
  9,251
  10,852
  12,598
  14,484
  16,508
  18,668
  20,958
  23,378
  25,923
  28,594
  31,388
  34,305
  37,345
  40,512
  43,805
  47,229
  50,788
  54,487
  58,330
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,287
  1,857
  2,605
  3,564
  4,762
  6,226
  7,979
  10,042
  12,430
  15,150
  18,211
  21,614
  25,355
  29,434
  33,841
  38,571
  43,616
  48,968
  54,621
  60,568
  66,808
  73,336
  80,151
  87,255
  94,654
  102,348
  110,349
  118,664
  127,306
  136,285
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.080
  1.160
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  136
  209
  304
  426
  577
  762
  982
  1,240
  1,539
  1,878
  2,293
  2,716
  3,180
  3,684
  4,229
  4,813
  5,435
  6,095
  6,791
  7,523
  8,290
  9,092
  9,930
  10,802
  11,711
  12,656
  13,638
  14,659
  15,720
  16,822
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  77
  91
  108
  131
  159
  193
  234
  282
  338
  402
  426
  506
  593
  689
  792
  903
  1,021
  1,146
  1,278
  1,417
  1,563
  1,716
  1,876
  2,042
  2,215
  2,395
  2,582
  2,777
  2,979
  3,189
Funds from operations, $m
  213
  300
  412
  556
  736
  954
  1,216
  1,523
  1,877
  2,280
  2,719
  3,222
  3,773
  4,373
  5,021
  5,716
  6,456
  7,241
  8,069
  8,940
  9,853
  10,808
  11,805
  12,844
  13,926
  15,051
  16,220
  17,436
  18,699
  20,011
Change in working capital, $m
  73
  99
  130
  166
  208
  254
  305
  358
  415
  473
  532
  591
  650
  708
  766
  822
  876
  930
  982
  1,033
  1,084
  1,134
  1,184
  1,234
  1,285
  1,337
  1,390
  1,444
  1,501
  1,560
Cash from operations, $m
  140
  201
  282
  390
  528
  700
  911
  1,164
  1,462
  1,807
  2,188
  2,631
  3,123
  3,665
  4,255
  4,894
  5,580
  6,311
  7,087
  7,907
  8,769
  9,674
  10,621
  11,610
  12,641
  13,714
  14,831
  15,991
  17,198
  18,452
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -30
  -43
  -61
  -83
  -111
  -146
  -187
  -235
  -291
  -355
  -426
  -506
  -593
  -689
  -792
  -903
  -1,021
  -1,146
  -1,278
  -1,417
  -1,563
  -1,716
  -1,876
  -2,042
  -2,215
  -2,395
  -2,582
  -2,777
  -2,979
New CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -189
  -249
  -318
  -398
  -486
  -583
  -686
  -793
  -904
  -1,017
  -1,131
  -1,243
  -1,355
  -1,465
  -1,572
  -1,676
  -1,778
  -1,878
  -1,976
  -2,073
  -2,169
  -2,265
  -2,361
  -2,458
  -2,557
  -2,659
  -2,763
  -2,871
  -2,984
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -159
  -219
  -292
  -379
  -481
  -597
  -729
  -873
  -1,028
  -1,195
  -1,372
  -1,557
  -1,749
  -1,948
  -2,154
  -2,364
  -2,579
  -2,799
  -3,024
  -3,254
  -3,490
  -3,732
  -3,981
  -4,237
  -4,500
  -4,772
  -5,054
  -5,345
  -5,648
  -5,963
Free cash flow, $m
  -19
  -19
  -10
  10
  46
  102
  183
  292
  434
  612
  816
  1,074
  1,374
  1,716
  2,102
  2,531
  3,001
  3,512
  4,063
  4,652
  5,279
  5,942
  6,641
  7,374
  8,141
  8,942
  9,777
  10,646
  11,550
  12,489
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  240
  326
  428
  548
  685
  837
  1,003
  1,180
  1,365
  1,556
  1,751
  1,946
  2,141
  2,333
  2,521
  2,706
  2,886
  3,061
  3,233
  3,402
  3,569
  3,734
  3,898
  4,064
  4,231
  4,402
  4,576
  4,756
  4,943
  5,136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  44
  35
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  284
  361
  444
  548
  685
  837
  1,003
  1,180
  1,365
  1,556
  1,751
  1,946
  2,141
  2,333
  2,521
  2,706
  2,886
  3,061
  3,233
  3,402
  3,569
  3,734
  3,898
  4,064
  4,231
  4,402
  4,576
  4,756
  4,943
  5,136
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  265
  342
  435
  559
  731
  940
  1,186
  1,472
  1,799
  2,168
  2,567
  3,020
  3,514
  4,049
  4,623
  5,236
  5,886
  6,573
  7,296
  8,054
  8,848
  9,676
  10,539
  11,438
  12,372
  13,344
  14,353
  15,402
  16,492
  17,625
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -180
  -244
  -320
  -410
  -513
  -627
  -751
  -883
  -1,022
  -1,165
  -1,310
  -1,456
  -1,602
  -1,745
  -1,886
  -2,024
  -2,159
  -2,291
  -2,419
  -2,546
  -2,670
  -2,794
  -2,917
  -3,041
  -3,166
  -3,294
  -3,424
  -3,559
  -3,698
  -3,843
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  85
  98
  114
  148
  219
  313
  435
  589
  778
  1,004
  1,257
  1,564
  1,913
  2,304
  2,737
  3,212
  3,727
  4,283
  4,877
  5,509
  6,177
  6,882
  7,622
  8,397
  9,206
  10,050
  10,929
  11,844
  12,794
  13,782
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  79
  85
  92
  109
  146
  189
  234
  281
  325
  363
  389
  410
  419
  416
  401
  376
  343
  305
  263
  221
  181
  144
  111
  83
  61
  43
  29
  19
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.0
  93.9
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2

Patrick Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of component products and distributor of building products and materials for the recreational vehicle (RV) and manufactured housing (MH) industrial markets for customers throughout the United States and Canada. In addition, it is a supplier to certain other industrial markets, such as kitchen cabinet, office and household furniture, fixtures and commercial furnishings, marine, and other industrial markets. The Company's segments include Manufacturing and Distribution. It manufactures a range of products, which include decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels, solid surface, granite and quartz countertops, fabricated aluminum products, wrapped vinyl, paper and hardwood profile mouldings, slide-out trim and fascia, cabinet doors and components, hardwood furniture, fiberglass and plastic component products including front and rear caps and marine helms, interior passage doors, RV painting, and slotwall panels and components, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Patrick Industries (PATK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 87.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 147.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Equity 35.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PATK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PATK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1635.653 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Patrick Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Patrick Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PATK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for PATK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Patrick Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Patrick Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PATK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PATK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Patrick Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Patrick Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PATK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PATK are equal to 17.6%.

Life of production assets of 14.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Patrick Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PATK is equal to 9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $370.685 million for Patrick Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.776 million for Patrick Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Patrick Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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