Intrinsic value of Patrick Industries - PATK

Previous Close

$60.20

  Intrinsic Value

$96.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+61%

Previous close

$60.20

 
Intrinsic value

$96.75

 
Up/down potential

+61%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PATK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.90
  31.01
  28.41
  26.07
  23.96
  22.07
  20.36
  18.82
  17.44
  16.20
  15.08
  14.07
  13.16
  12.35
  11.61
  10.95
  10.36
  9.82
  9.34
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.85
  7.56
  7.31
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
Revenue, $m
  2,191
  2,870
  3,685
  4,646
  5,759
  7,030
  8,461
  10,054
  11,807
  13,719
  15,788
  18,009
  20,379
  22,895
  25,554
  28,352
  31,288
  34,361
  37,569
  40,914
  44,397
  48,021
  51,789
  55,705
  59,774
  64,003
  68,398
  72,968
  77,720
  82,664
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,010
  2,619
  3,350
  4,211
  5,208
  6,347
  7,630
  9,057
  10,628
  12,342
  14,148
  16,139
  18,263
  20,518
  22,900
  25,408
  28,039
  30,792
  33,667
  36,665
  39,787
  43,034
  46,411
  49,920
  53,567
  57,356
  61,295
  65,390
  69,648
  74,079
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,011
  2,620
  3,351
  4,212
  5,209
  6,348
  7,631
  9,058
  10,629
  12,343
  14,149
  16,140
  18,264
  20,519
  22,901
  25,409
  28,040
  30,793
  33,669
  36,667
  39,789
  43,036
  46,413
  49,922
  53,569
  57,358
  61,297
  65,392
  69,650
  74,081
Operating income, $m
  179
  250
  334
  434
  550
  682
  830
  996
  1,178
  1,376
  1,638
  1,869
  2,115
  2,376
  2,652
  2,943
  3,248
  3,567
  3,900
  4,247
  4,609
  4,985
  5,377
  5,783
  6,206
  6,645
  7,101
  7,576
  8,069
  8,583
EBITDA, $m
  290
  380
  489
  616
  764
  933
  1,123
  1,334
  1,567
  1,821
  2,096
  2,391
  2,706
  3,040
  3,393
  3,765
  4,155
  4,563
  4,990
  5,434
  5,897
  6,378
  6,879
  7,399
  7,939
  8,501
  9,085
  9,692
  10,323
  10,980
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  19
  28
  39
  53
  68
  87
  107
  131
  157
  186
  217
  251
  287
  326
  367
  411
  456
  504
  555
  607
  662
  719
  778
  840
  904
  971
  1,040
  1,112
  1,187
  1,265
Earnings before tax, $m
  160
  222
  295
  382
  481
  595
  723
  865
  1,021
  1,191
  1,421
  1,618
  1,828
  2,050
  2,285
  2,532
  2,791
  3,062
  3,345
  3,640
  3,947
  4,266
  4,598
  4,943
  5,302
  5,674
  6,061
  6,464
  6,883
  7,318
Tax expense, $m
  43
  60
  80
  103
  130
  161
  195
  234
  276
  321
  384
  437
  494
  554
  617
  684
  754
  827
  903
  983
  1,066
  1,152
  1,242
  1,335
  1,431
  1,532
  1,637
  1,745
  1,858
  1,976
Net income, $m
  117
  162
  215
  279
  351
  434
  528
  631
  745
  869
  1,038
  1,181
  1,334
  1,497
  1,668
  1,849
  2,038
  2,236
  2,442
  2,657
  2,881
  3,114
  3,357
  3,609
  3,870
  4,142
  4,425
  4,719
  5,024
  5,342

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,161
  1,521
  1,953
  2,462
  3,052
  3,725
  4,484
  5,328
  6,257
  7,270
  8,367
  9,544
  10,800
  12,133
  13,542
  15,025
  16,581
  18,209
  19,909
  21,682
  23,528
  25,448
  27,445
  29,520
  31,677
  33,918
  36,247
  38,669
  41,187
  43,807
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,161
  1,521
  1,953
  2,462
  3,052
  3,725
  4,484
  5,328
  6,257
  7,270
  8,367
  9,544
  10,800
  12,133
  13,542
  15,025
  16,581
  18,209
  19,909
  21,682
  23,528
  25,448
  27,445
  29,520
  31,677
  33,918
  36,247
  38,669
  41,187
  43,807
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
  1.887
Average production assets, $m
  635
  832
  1,069
  1,347
  1,670
  2,039
  2,454
  2,916
  3,424
  3,979
  4,578
  5,223
  5,910
  6,640
  7,411
  8,222
  9,074
  9,965
  10,895
  11,865
  12,875
  13,926
  15,019
  16,154
  17,335
  18,561
  19,836
  21,161
  22,539
  23,972
Working capital, $m
  123
  161
  206
  260
  323
  394
  474
  563
  661
  768
  884
  1,009
  1,141
  1,282
  1,431
  1,588
  1,752
  1,924
  2,104
  2,291
  2,486
  2,689
  2,900
  3,119
  3,347
  3,584
  3,830
  4,086
  4,352
  4,629
Total debt, $m
  522
  728
  975
  1,267
  1,604
  1,989
  2,423
  2,906
  3,437
  4,017
  4,644
  5,317
  6,036
  6,798
  7,604
  8,453
  9,342
  10,274
  11,246
  12,260
  13,316
  14,415
  15,557
  16,744
  17,977
  19,259
  20,592
  21,977
  23,417
  24,916
Total liabilities, $m
  664
  870
  1,117
  1,408
  1,746
  2,131
  2,565
  3,048
  3,579
  4,159
  4,786
  5,459
  6,178
  6,940
  7,746
  8,594
  9,484
  10,416
  11,388
  12,402
  13,458
  14,557
  15,699
  16,886
  18,119
  19,401
  20,733
  22,118
  23,559
  25,058
Total equity, $m
  497
  651
  836
  1,054
  1,306
  1,594
  1,919
  2,280
  2,678
  3,112
  3,581
  4,085
  4,622
  5,193
  5,796
  6,431
  7,097
  7,793
  8,521
  9,280
  10,070
  10,892
  11,747
  12,635
  13,558
  14,517
  15,514
  16,550
  17,628
  18,749
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,161
  1,521
  1,953
  2,462
  3,052
  3,725
  4,484
  5,328
  6,257
  7,271
  8,367
  9,544
  10,800
  12,133
  13,542
  15,025
  16,581
  18,209
  19,909
  21,682
  23,528
  25,449
  27,446
  29,521
  31,677
  33,918
  36,247
  38,668
  41,187
  43,807
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.120
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  117
  162
  215
  279
  351
  434
  528
  631
  745
  869
  1,038
  1,181
  1,334
  1,497
  1,668
  1,849
  2,038
  2,236
  2,442
  2,657
  2,881
  3,114
  3,357
  3,609
  3,870
  4,142
  4,425
  4,719
  5,024
  5,342
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  130
  154
  182
  214
  251
  293
  339
  390
  445
  458
  522
  591
  664
  741
  822
  907
  996
  1,090
  1,187
  1,288
  1,393
  1,502
  1,615
  1,733
  1,856
  1,984
  2,116
  2,254
  2,397
Funds from operations, $m
  228
  292
  370
  460
  566
  685
  820
  970
  1,135
  1,314
  1,495
  1,704
  1,925
  2,161
  2,409
  2,671
  2,945
  3,232
  3,532
  3,844
  4,169
  4,507
  4,859
  5,224
  5,604
  5,998
  6,408
  6,835
  7,278
  7,740
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  38
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  124
  133
  141
  149
  157
  164
  172
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
Cash from operations, $m
  197
  254
  324
  407
  503
  614
  740
  881
  1,037
  1,207
  1,380
  1,579
  1,793
  2,020
  2,260
  2,514
  2,781
  3,060
  3,352
  3,656
  3,974
  4,304
  4,648
  5,005
  5,376
  5,761
  6,162
  6,579
  7,012
  7,463
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -64
  -83
  -107
  -135
  -167
  -204
  -245
  -292
  -342
  -398
  -458
  -522
  -591
  -664
  -741
  -822
  -907
  -996
  -1,090
  -1,187
  -1,288
  -1,393
  -1,502
  -1,615
  -1,733
  -1,856
  -1,984
  -2,116
  -2,254
New CAPEX, $m
  -160
  -197
  -236
  -279
  -323
  -369
  -415
  -462
  -508
  -555
  -600
  -644
  -687
  -730
  -771
  -811
  -851
  -891
  -930
  -970
  -1,010
  -1,051
  -1,093
  -1,136
  -1,180
  -1,226
  -1,275
  -1,325
  -1,378
  -1,434
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -207
  -261
  -319
  -386
  -458
  -536
  -619
  -707
  -800
  -897
  -998
  -1,102
  -1,209
  -1,321
  -1,435
  -1,552
  -1,673
  -1,798
  -1,926
  -2,060
  -2,197
  -2,339
  -2,486
  -2,638
  -2,795
  -2,959
  -3,131
  -3,309
  -3,494
  -3,688
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -6
  4
  21
  46
  79
  121
  174
  237
  310
  382
  477
  583
  699
  826
  962
  1,107
  1,262
  1,425
  1,597
  1,777
  1,966
  2,162
  2,367
  2,580
  2,802
  3,032
  3,270
  3,518
  3,775
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  168
  206
  247
  291
  337
  385
  434
  483
  532
  580
  627
  673
  719
  763
  806
  848
  890
  931
  973
  1,014
  1,056
  1,098
  1,142
  1,187
  1,234
  1,282
  1,332
  1,385
  1,440
  1,499
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  177
  206
  247
  291
  337
  385
  434
  483
  532
  580
  627
  673
  719
  763
  806
  848
  890
  931
  973
  1,014
  1,056
  1,098
  1,142
  1,187
  1,234
  1,282
  1,332
  1,385
  1,440
  1,499
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  166
  200
  251
  312
  383
  464
  555
  656
  768
  890
  1,009
  1,150
  1,302
  1,462
  1,631
  1,810
  1,997
  2,193
  2,398
  2,611
  2,833
  3,064
  3,304
  3,554
  3,814
  4,084
  4,364
  4,655
  4,958
  5,274
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -126
  -154
  -185
  -218
  -252
  -288
  -325
  -361
  -398
  -434
  -469
  -504
  -538
  -571
  -603
  -635
  -666
  -697
  -728
  -759
  -790
  -822
  -855
  -888
  -923
  -959
  -997
  -1,036
  -1,078
  -1,121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  13
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  51
  60
  71
  82
  95
  108
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  334
  359
  384
  410
  438
  466
Cash available for distribution, $m
  40
  45
  66
  94
  131
  176
  230
  295
  370
  456
  540
  647
  764
  891
  1,028
  1,175
  1,331
  1,496
  1,670
  1,852
  2,043
  2,242
  2,450
  2,666
  2,891
  3,124
  3,367
  3,619
  3,881
  4,152
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  38
  39
  53
  68
  85
  103
  120
  135
  147
  156
  157
  158
  154
  147
  136
  123
  108
  92
  77
  63
  50
  38
  29
  21
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4

Patrick Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of component products and distributor of building products and materials for the recreational vehicle (RV) and manufactured housing (MH) industrial markets for customers throughout the United States and Canada. In addition, it is a supplier to certain other industrial markets, such as kitchen cabinet, office and household furniture, fixtures and commercial furnishings, marine, and other industrial markets. The Company's segments include Manufacturing and Distribution. It manufactures a range of products, which include decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels, solid surface, granite and quartz countertops, fabricated aluminum products, wrapped vinyl, paper and hardwood profile mouldings, slide-out trim and fascia, cabinet doors and components, hardwood furniture, fiberglass and plastic component products including front and rear caps and marine helms, interior passage doors, RV painting, and slotwall panels and components, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Patrick Industries (PATK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 7.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 87.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 147.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Equity 35.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PATK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PATK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1636 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Patrick Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Patrick Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PATK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for PATK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Patrick Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Patrick Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PATK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PATK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Patrick Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Patrick Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PATK stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PATK are equal to 29%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Patrick Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PATK is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $371 million for Patrick Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24 million for Patrick Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Patrick Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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