Intrinsic value of VeriFone Systems - PAY

Previous Close

$18.30

  Intrinsic Value

$10.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-42%

Previous close

$18.30

 
Intrinsic value

$10.56

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.07
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  1,871
  1,923
  1,981
  2,045
  2,115
  2,190
  2,271
  2,358
  2,451
  2,550
  2,656
  2,769
  2,888
  3,014
  3,148
  3,290
  3,439
  3,597
  3,764
  3,940
  4,125
  4,320
  4,526
  4,742
  4,970
  5,210
  5,462
  5,728
  6,007
  6,300
  6,609
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,888
  1,941
  2,000
  2,064
  2,134
  2,209
  2,289
  2,375
  2,467
  2,565
  2,558
  2,668
  2,785
  2,909
  3,040
  3,178
  3,324
  3,478
  3,640
  3,812
  3,992
  4,182
  4,382
  4,592
  4,814
  5,047
  5,292
  5,550
  5,821
  6,106
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,983
  1,888
  1,941
  2,000
  2,064
  2,134
  2,209
  2,289
  2,375
  2,467
  2,565
  2,558
  2,668
  2,785
  2,909
  3,040
  3,178
  3,324
  3,478
  3,640
  3,812
  3,992
  4,182
  4,382
  4,592
  4,814
  5,047
  5,292
  5,550
  5,821
  6,106
Operating income, $m
  -112
  36
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  457
  479
  502
EBITDA, $m
  29
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  259
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
  585
  614
  644
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  -143
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  46
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  249
  259
  271
  282
  295
  308
  322
  336
  351
Tax expense, $m
  32
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
Net income, $m
  -174
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  131
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,322
  2,252
  2,320
  2,395
  2,476
  2,564
  2,659
  2,761
  2,870
  2,986
  3,110
  3,242
  3,382
  3,530
  3,686
  3,852
  4,027
  4,212
  4,407
  4,613
  4,830
  5,059
  5,300
  5,553
  5,820
  6,101
  6,396
  6,707
  7,034
  7,377
  7,738
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,191
  2,252
  2,320
  2,395
  2,476
  2,564
  2,659
  2,761
  2,870
  2,986
  3,110
  3,242
  3,382
  3,530
  3,686
  3,852
  4,027
  4,212
  4,407
  4,613
  4,830
  5,059
  5,300
  5,553
  5,820
  6,101
  6,396
  6,707
  7,034
  7,377
  7,738
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
Average production assets, $m
  436
  448
  462
  477
  493
  510
  529
  549
  571
  594
  619
  645
  673
  702
  734
  767
  801
  838
  877
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,158
  1,214
  1,273
  1,335
  1,400
  1,468
  1,540
Working capital, $m
  177
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  230
  240
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
Total debt, $m
  831
  805
  851
  902
  958
  1,018
  1,083
  1,153
  1,227
  1,307
  1,391
  1,481
  1,577
  1,678
  1,786
  1,899
  2,019
  2,145
  2,279
  2,420
  2,568
  2,724
  2,889
  3,062
  3,245
  3,437
  3,639
  3,851
  4,075
  4,310
  4,557
Total liabilities, $m
  1,568
  1,541
  1,587
  1,638
  1,694
  1,754
  1,819
  1,889
  1,963
  2,043
  2,127
  2,217
  2,313
  2,414
  2,522
  2,635
  2,755
  2,881
  3,015
  3,156
  3,304
  3,460
  3,625
  3,798
  3,981
  4,173
  4,375
  4,587
  4,811
  5,046
  5,293
Total equity, $m
  755
  712
  733
  757
  782
  810
  840
  872
  907
  944
  983
  1,024
  1,069
  1,115
  1,165
  1,217
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,526
  1,599
  1,675
  1,755
  1,839
  1,928
  2,021
  2,119
  2,223
  2,331
  2,445
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,323
  2,253
  2,320
  2,395
  2,476
  2,564
  2,659
  2,761
  2,870
  2,987
  3,110
  3,241
  3,382
  3,529
  3,687
  3,852
  4,028
  4,212
  4,408
  4,614
  4,830
  5,059
  5,300
  5,553
  5,820
  6,101
  6,396
  6,706
  7,034
  7,377
  7,738
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.101
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.285
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -174
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  152
  153
  154
  156
  157
  159
  161
  163
  165
  167
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
Funds from operations, $m
  172
  158
  162
  165
  169
  174
  178
  183
  189
  194
  201
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  234
  245
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  166
  155
  158
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  183
  188
  194
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
New CAPEX, $m
  -67
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -207
Free cash flow, $m
  93
  102
  103
  104
  105
  106
  108
  109
  111
  113
  115
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  112
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -110
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  12
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -112
  55
  60
  63
  68
  71
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  157
  163
  168
  173
  178
  183
  189
  194
  200
  205
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  420
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  59
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  200
  141
  144
  147
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  166
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
Discount rate, %
 
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  187
  122
  114
  106
  98
  90
  81
  73
  65
  57
  39
  34
  30
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  98.7
  98.1
  97.5
  97.0
  96.5
  96.1
  95.8
  95.5
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3
  95.3

VeriFone Systems, Inc. offers payments and commerce solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, marketing and supplying a range of payment solutions and complementary services. It provides solutions and services for the retail point-of-sale (POS) that enable various forms of commerce. The Company's segments include Verifone Systems and Verifone Services. The Verifone Systems segment delivers point of sale electronic payment devices that run the operating systems, security and encryption software, and certified payment software for both payments and commerce. The Verifone Services segment delivers device-related leasing and maintenance, payment transaction routing and reporting, and commerce based services, such as advertising on digital screens. The Company operates in various sectors, such as financial services, retail, petroleum, restaurant, hospitality, transportation and healthcare.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VeriFone Systems (PAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 100.9%
Total Debt to Equity 110.1%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Return On Total Capital -10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Return On Equity -22.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin -6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Net Profit Margin -9.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Effective Tax Rate -22.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 189.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

PAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1871 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VeriFone Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of VeriFone Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for PAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VeriFone Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VeriFone Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for VeriFone Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VeriFone Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PAY are equal to 23.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VeriFone Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PAY is equal to 6.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $755 million for VeriFone Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.801 million for VeriFone Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VeriFone Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Verifone Adds Two Members To Its Board Of Directors   [Dec-20-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Company News For Dec 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ VeriFone Systems Down in Pre-Market Wednesday   [Dec-13-17 12:32PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Company News For Dec 13, 2017   [09:16AM  Zacks]
▶ VeriFone beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Dec-12-17 04:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ VeriFone Stock: In-Store Shopping Should Help Recovery   [Dec-11-17 11:07AM  Investopedia]
▶ Did Squares Top-Line Growth Accelerate in 3Q17?   [Nov-15-17 02:45PM  Market Realist]
▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: Verifone Systems   [Sep-11-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ VeriFone Systems Volatile Amid Results   [03:53PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ VeriFone reports 3Q loss   [Sep-07-17 09:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Verifone beats on top line   [04:29PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ These Stocks Have Changed Direction   [Jul-17-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
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Financial statements of PAY
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