Intrinsic value of Prestige Brands Holdings - PBH

Previous Close

$38.75

  Intrinsic Value

$65.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+68%

Previous close

$38.75

 
Intrinsic value

$65.07

 
Up/down potential

+68%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PBH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,062
  1,086
  1,114
  1,146
  1,180
  1,219
  1,260
  1,305
  1,353
  1,405
  1,461
  1,520
  1,583
  1,650
  1,722
  1,797
  1,877
  1,961
  2,051
  2,145
  2,244
  2,349
  2,460
  2,576
  2,699
  2,828
  2,964
  3,107
  3,257
  3,415
Variable operating expenses, $m
  745
  754
  765
  777
  790
  805
  821
  838
  856
  876
  557
  580
  604
  629
  657
  685
  716
  748
  782
  818
  856
  896
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  745
  754
  765
  777
  790
  805
  821
  838
  856
  876
  557
  580
  604
  629
  657
  685
  716
  748
  782
  818
  856
  896
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
Operating income, $m
  317
  332
  349
  369
  390
  414
  439
  467
  497
  529
  904
  940
  979
  1,021
  1,065
  1,112
  1,161
  1,213
  1,269
  1,327
  1,388
  1,453
  1,522
  1,594
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,922
  2,015
  2,113
EBITDA, $m
  718
  734
  753
  774
  798
  823
  851
  882
  914
  950
  987
  1,027
  1,070
  1,115
  1,163
  1,214
  1,268
  1,325
  1,386
  1,449
  1,516
  1,587
  1,662
  1,741
  1,823
  1,911
  2,002
  2,099
  2,201
  2,308
Interest expense (income), $m
  85
  108
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  269
  283
  298
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
Earnings before tax, $m
  209
  222
  236
  251
  269
  287
  308
  330
  354
  380
  747
  777
  808
  841
  876
  913
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,084
  1,133
  1,184
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,557
  1,631
  1,709
Tax expense, $m
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  96
  103
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  334
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
Net income, $m
  153
  162
  172
  183
  196
  210
  225
  241
  259
  277
  546
  567
  590
  614
  639
  666
  695
  725
  758
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,834
  3,922
  4,023
  4,136
  4,261
  4,399
  4,549
  4,711
  4,886
  5,073
  5,274
  5,488
  5,716
  5,958
  6,215
  6,487
  6,776
  7,081
  7,403
  7,743
  8,102
  8,480
  8,879
  9,300
  9,742
  10,208
  10,699
  11,215
  11,759
  12,330
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,834
  3,922
  4,023
  4,136
  4,261
  4,399
  4,549
  4,711
  4,886
  5,073
  5,274
  5,488
  5,716
  5,958
  6,215
  6,487
  6,776
  7,081
  7,403
  7,743
  8,102
  8,480
  8,879
  9,300
  9,742
  10,208
  10,699
  11,215
  11,759
  12,330
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
Average production assets, $m
  1,817
  1,859
  1,907
  1,960
  2,020
  2,085
  2,156
  2,233
  2,316
  2,404
  2,500
  2,601
  2,709
  2,824
  2,946
  3,075
  3,211
  3,356
  3,508
  3,670
  3,840
  4,019
  4,208
  4,408
  4,617
  4,838
  5,071
  5,315
  5,573
  5,844
Working capital, $m
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  207
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
Total debt, $m
  2,045
  2,105
  2,175
  2,252
  2,339
  2,433
  2,536
  2,647
  2,767
  2,896
  3,034
  3,181
  3,338
  3,504
  3,681
  3,868
  4,066
  4,275
  4,497
  4,730
  4,977
  5,237
  5,511
  5,800
  6,104
  6,424
  6,761
  7,116
  7,489
  7,882
Total liabilities, $m
  2,634
  2,694
  2,764
  2,841
  2,928
  3,022
  3,125
  3,236
  3,357
  3,485
  3,623
  3,770
  3,927
  4,093
  4,270
  4,457
  4,655
  4,864
  5,086
  5,319
  5,566
  5,826
  6,100
  6,389
  6,693
  7,013
  7,350
  7,705
  8,078
  8,471
Total equity, $m
  1,200
  1,228
  1,259
  1,295
  1,334
  1,377
  1,424
  1,475
  1,529
  1,588
  1,651
  1,718
  1,789
  1,865
  1,945
  2,031
  2,121
  2,216
  2,317
  2,424
  2,536
  2,654
  2,779
  2,911
  3,049
  3,195
  3,349
  3,510
  3,680
  3,859
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,834
  3,922
  4,023
  4,136
  4,262
  4,399
  4,549
  4,711
  4,886
  5,073
  5,274
  5,488
  5,716
  5,958
  6,215
  6,488
  6,776
  7,080
  7,403
  7,743
  8,102
  8,480
  8,879
  9,300
  9,742
  10,208
  10,699
  11,215
  11,758
  12,330
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.840
  1.850
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  153
  162
  172
  183
  196
  210
  225
  241
  259
  277
  546
  567
  590
  614
  639
  666
  695
  725
  758
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  401
  402
  404
  405
  407
  410
  412
  415
  417
  420
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  553
  564
  576
  589
  603
  619
  637
  656
  676
  698
  629
  654
  680
  708
  738
  769
  802
  837
  874
  914
  955
  999
  1,045
  1,093
  1,144
  1,198
  1,254
  1,314
  1,376
  1,442
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  550
  560
  572
  584
  599
  614
  631
  649
  669
  690
  621
  645
  671
  698
  727
  758
  791
  825
  862
  900
  941
  984
  1,029
  1,076
  1,127
  1,179
  1,235
  1,293
  1,355
  1,420
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -457
Free cash flow, $m
  456
  458
  462
  467
  474
  482
  490
  501
  512
  524
  446
  460
  476
  493
  511
  531
  552
  574
  597
  622
  648
  676
  706
  737
  770
  805
  841
  880
  920
  963
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  61
  69
  78
  86
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  166
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  392
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  52
  61
  69
  78
  86
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  166
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  392
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  507
  519
  531
  545
  560
  576
  593
  612
  632
  653
  584
  607
  633
  660
  688
  718
  750
  783
  819
  856
  895
  936
  980
  1,026
  1,074
  1,125
  1,178
  1,234
  1,293
  1,355
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  486
  491
  500
  510
  521
  533
  546
  561
  577
  594
  521
  540
  561
  584
  608
  633
  660
  688
  718
  749
  783
  818
  855
  894
  935
  979
  1,025
  1,073
  1,123
  1,177
Discount rate, %
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  443
  405
  369
  334
  300
  266
  234
  204
  175
  148
  105
  87
  71
  57
  45
  34
  26
  19
  14
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc. is engaged in the marketing, sales and distribution of over-the-counter healthcare and household cleaning products. The Company operates through three segments: North American Over-the-Counter (OTC) Healthcare; International Over-the-Counter Healthcare, and Household Cleaning. Its portfolio of OTC healthcare products includes core brands, such as DenTek specialty oral care products, Monistat women's health products, Nix lice treatment, Chloraseptic sore throat treatments, Clear Eyes eye care products, Compound W wart treatments, The Doctor's NightGuard dental protector, Little Remedies pediatric over-the-counter products, Efferdent denture care products, Luden's throat drops, Dramamine motion sickness treatment, BC and Goody's pain relievers, Beano gas prevention, Debrox earwax remover, and Gaviscon antacid. The Company's portfolio of Household Cleaning brands includes the Chore Boy, Comet and Spic and Span brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Prestige Brands Holdings (PBH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.7
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 266.6%
Total Debt to Equity 266.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.1%
EBITDA Margin 25.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Operating Margin 23.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

PBH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PBH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1041.179 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Prestige Brands Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Prestige Brands Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PBH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for PBH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Prestige Brands Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Prestige Brands Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PBH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PBH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Prestige Brands Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Prestige Brands Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PBH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PBH are equal to 171.1%.

Life of production assets of 105.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Prestige Brands Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PBH is equal to 14.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1178.61 million for Prestige Brands Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.734 million for Prestige Brands Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Prestige Brands Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 100% Upside With Prestige Brands   [Nov-14-18 12:07PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Prestige Brands: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Prestige Brands: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-02-18 06:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 Small-Cap Stocks to Consider for the Second Half of 2018   [Jul-09-18 11:01AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Prestige Brands: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ 9 Stocks Robert Olstein Continues to Buy   [Feb-16-18 03:01PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Feb-12-18 10:22AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Prestige Brands meets 3Q profit forecasts   [06:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 January Consumer Stock Picks From William Blair   [Jan-03-18 04:25PM  Benzinga]
▶ Prestige Brands misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ As Lice Head Back To School, Nix® Helps Parents Prepare   [Aug-10-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Prestige Brands tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]

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