Intrinsic value of pdvWireless - PDVW

Previous Close

$26.55

  Intrinsic Value

$2.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$26.55

 
Intrinsic value

$2.20

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDVW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.10
  32.09
  29.38
  26.94
  24.75
  22.77
  21.00
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
Revenue, $m
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
Variable operating expenses, $m
  44
  55
  68
  84
  102
  123
  146
  173
  202
  234
  258
  295
  335
  377
  422
  469
  519
  571
  625
  682
  741
  803
  867
  933
  1,002
  1,074
  1,148
  1,226
  1,306
  1,390
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  44
  55
  68
  84
  102
  123
  146
  173
  202
  234
  258
  295
  335
  377
  422
  469
  519
  571
  625
  682
  741
  803
  867
  933
  1,002
  1,074
  1,148
  1,226
  1,306
  1,390
Operating income, $m
  -38
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -84
  -100
  -119
  -140
  -164
  -189
  -206
  -236
  -268
  -302
  -338
  -376
  -415
  -457
  -500
  -546
  -593
  -642
  -693
  -747
  -802
  -859
  -919
  -981
  -1,045
  -1,112
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -58
  -68
  -78
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -157
  -173
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -243
  -262
  -282
  -303
  -325
  -347
  -371
  -395
  -420
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -86
  -103
  -123
  -145
  -169
  -196
  -214
  -245
  -278
  -314
  -351
  -391
  -433
  -476
  -522
  -569
  -618
  -670
  -723
  -779
  -837
  -897
  -959
  -1,024
  -1,092
  -1,162
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -86
  -103
  -123
  -145
  -169
  -196
  -214
  -245
  -278
  -314
  -351
  -391
  -433
  -476
  -522
  -569
  -618
  -670
  -723
  -779
  -837
  -897
  -959
  -1,024
  -1,092
  -1,162

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  178
  235
  304
  386
  481
  591
  715
  853
  1,007
  1,174
  1,356
  1,552
  1,762
  1,984
  2,220
  2,469
  2,730
  3,004
  3,290
  3,588
  3,898
  4,222
  4,558
  4,908
  5,271
  5,648
  6,040
  6,448
  6,872
  7,313
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  178
  235
  304
  386
  481
  591
  715
  853
  1,007
  1,174
  1,356
  1,552
  1,762
  1,984
  2,220
  2,469
  2,730
  3,004
  3,290
  3,588
  3,898
  4,222
  4,558
  4,908
  5,271
  5,648
  6,040
  6,448
  6,872
  7,313
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.039
  0.038
  0.039
  0.039
  0.037
  0.037
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
Average production assets, $m
  168
  222
  287
  365
  455
  559
  676
  807
  952
  1,111
  1,283
  1,469
  1,667
  1,878
  2,101
  2,336
  2,583
  2,842
  3,113
  3,395
  3,689
  3,995
  4,313
  4,644
  4,987
  5,344
  5,715
  6,101
  6,502
  6,920
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -192
Total debt, $m
  7
  15
  24
  35
  48
  63
  80
  99
  120
  143
  167
  194
  223
  253
  285
  319
  354
  392
  430
  471
  513
  557
  603
  650
  700
  751
  805
  860
  918
  978
Total liabilities, $m
  24
  32
  41
  52
  65
  80
  97
  116
  137
  160
  184
  211
  240
  270
  302
  336
  371
  409
  447
  488
  530
  574
  620
  667
  717
  768
  821
  877
  935
  995
Total equity, $m
  154
  203
  262
  333
  416
  510
  617
  737
  870
  1,015
  1,172
  1,341
  1,522
  1,715
  1,918
  2,133
  2,359
  2,595
  2,842
  3,100
  3,368
  3,648
  3,938
  4,240
  4,554
  4,880
  5,219
  5,571
  5,938
  6,319
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  178
  235
  303
  385
  481
  590
  714
  853
  1,007
  1,175
  1,356
  1,552
  1,762
  1,985
  2,220
  2,469
  2,730
  3,004
  3,289
  3,588
  3,898
  4,222
  4,558
  4,907
  5,271
  5,648
  6,040
  6,448
  6,873
  7,314
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864
  0.864

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -86
  -103
  -123
  -145
  -169
  -196
  -214
  -245
  -278
  -314
  -351
  -391
  -433
  -476
  -522
  -569
  -618
  -670
  -723
  -779
  -837
  -897
  -959
  -1,024
  -1,092
  -1,162
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  33
  39
  47
  56
  66
  78
  91
  106
  122
  128
  147
  167
  188
  210
  234
  258
  284
  311
  339
  369
  399
  431
  464
  499
  534
  572
  610
  650
  692
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -98
  -112
  -126
  -141
  -157
  -174
  -192
  -210
  -230
  -250
  -270
  -292
  -315
  -338
  -363
  -388
  -414
  -442
  -470
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -151
  -167
  -185
  -203
  -222
  -241
  -262
  -283
  -306
  -329
  -353
  -378
  -403
  -430
  -458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -46
  -56
  -68
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -147
  -167
  -188
  -210
  -234
  -258
  -284
  -311
  -339
  -369
  -399
  -431
  -464
  -499
  -534
  -572
  -610
  -650
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -54
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -145
  -159
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -331
  -344
  -357
  -371
  -386
  -401
  -417
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -71
  -87
  -106
  -126
  -150
  -173
  -199
  -226
  -254
  -283
  -313
  -345
  -378
  -411
  -445
  -481
  -517
  -555
  -593
  -633
  -675
  -717
  -762
  -808
  -856
  -905
  -958
  -1,011
  -1,067
Free cash flow, $m
  -70
  -83
  -104
  -128
  -154
  -183
  -214
  -249
  -285
  -323
  -364
  -407
  -451
  -498
  -546
  -596
  -648
  -702
  -757
  -815
  -875
  -937
  -1,001
  -1,068
  -1,137
  -1,208
  -1,283
  -1,361
  -1,442
  -1,526
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  82
  96
  117
  141
  168
  198
  230
  264
  301
  340
  371
  414
  459
  506
  555
  606
  658
  712
  769
  827
  887
  949
  1,014
  1,081
  1,151
  1,223
  1,298
  1,377
  1,458
  1,543
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  89
  104
  126
  152
  181
  213
  247
  283
  322
  363
  396
  441
  487
  536
  587
  640
  694
  749
  808
  868
  929
  993
  1,060
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,351
  1,432
  1,516
  1,603
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -96
  -117
  -141
  -168
  -198
  -230
  -264
  -301
  -340
  -371
  -414
  -459
  -506
  -555
  -606
  -658
  -712
  -769
  -827
  -887
  -949
  -1,014
  -1,081
  -1,151
  -1,223
  -1,298
  -1,377
  -1,458
  -1,543
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  119
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  -75
  -95
  -116
  -141
  -168
  -198
  -230
  -264
  -301
  -339
  -380
  -423
  -468
  -514
  -562
  -613
  -665
  -719
  -775
  -833
  -893
  -955
  -1,020
  -1,087
  -1,157
  -1,230
  -1,305
  -1,384
  -1,466
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  54
  -69
  -82
  -96
  -109
  -122
  -134
  -144
  -152
  -158
  -161
  -162
  -161
  -157
  -151
  -143
  -133
  -122
  -111
  -98
  -86
  -74
  -63
  -52
  -42
  -34
  -26
  -20
  -15
  -11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  68.5
  49.5
  36.6
  27.5
  21.0
  16.3
  12.7
  10.1
  8.1
  6.5
  5.3
  4.4
  3.6
  3.0
  2.5
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2

pdvWireless, Inc., formerly Pacific DataVision, Inc., is a wireless communications carrier and a provider of mobile workforce communication and location-based solutions. The Company's solutions focus on enhancing the productivity of its customers' field-based workers, and the efficiency of their dispatch and call center operations. The Company is deploying and operating the two-way radio networks that offer push-to-talk (PTT) communications services to primarily dispatch-centric, small and medium-sized businesses. The Company has launched its PTT networks in markets throughout the United States. The Company offers its DispatchPlus service, which combines pdvConnect, its suite of mobile communication and workforce management applications with digital network architecture and mobile devices. Developed for dispatch-centric businesses, pdvConnect enables businesses to locate and communicate with their field workers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  pdvWireless (PDVW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.8
Price to Sales 76.3
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -81.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 124
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Return On Total Capital -15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Return On Equity -15.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -40%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
EBITDA Margin -620%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -537.2%
Operating Margin -660%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -550.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -660%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -570%
Net Profit Margin -780%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -610%
Effective Tax Rate -18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PDVW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDVW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by pdvWireless. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of pdvWireless. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDVW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PDVW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of pdvWireless, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of pdvWireless.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDVW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 710.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDVW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for pdvWireless.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for pdvWireless. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDVW stock is equal to 25%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDVW are equal to 2490%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in pdvWireless operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDVW is equal to -69.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $228 million for pdvWireless - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14 million for pdvWireless is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of pdvWireless at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ pdvWireless Reports Year End Results   [Jun-05-18 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is pdvWireless Inc (NASDAQ:PDVW) Undervalued?   [Apr-26-18 07:30PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ pdvWireless Announces Leadership Transition   [Apr-23-18 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless Reports Third Quarter Results   [Feb-06-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ pdvWireless Reports Second Quarter Results   [Nov-07-17 04:24PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:40PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ pdvWireless Files Comments on FCC Notice of Inquiry   [Oct-03-17 01:13PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless Reports First Quarter Results   [Aug-08-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless Announces Issuance of Notice of Inquiry   [Aug-04-17 05:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to pdvWireless, Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ pdvWireless Reports Year End Results   [Jun-06-17 04:33PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ pdvWireless Reports First Quarter Results   [04:10PM  PR Newswire]
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