Intrinsic value of Pegasystems - PEGA

Previous Close

$48.40

  Intrinsic Value

$14.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$48.40

 
Intrinsic value

$14.15

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEGA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.81
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  750
  786
  824
  864
  906
  950
  996
  1,045
  1,096
  1,150
  1,207
  1,266
  1,329
  1,394
  1,463
  1,536
  1,612
  1,692
  1,776
  1,864
  1,957
  2,054
  2,157
  2,264
  2,377
  2,495
  2,620
  2,750
  2,887
  3,032
  3,183
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  711
  745
  781
  818
  858
  899
  943
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,133
  1,189
  1,248
  1,310
  1,375
  1,443
  1,515
  1,590
  1,669
  1,752
  1,839
  1,931
  2,027
  2,128
  2,234
  2,345
  2,462
  2,585
  2,714
  2,849
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  713
  711
  745
  781
  818
  858
  899
  943
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,133
  1,189
  1,248
  1,310
  1,375
  1,443
  1,515
  1,590
  1,669
  1,752
  1,839
  1,931
  2,027
  2,128
  2,234
  2,345
  2,462
  2,585
  2,714
  2,849
Operating income, $m
  38
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  318
  333
EBITDA, $m
  62
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  299
Tax expense, $m
  8
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
Net income, $m
  27
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  655
  546
  572
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
  761
  799
  838
  879
  923
  968
  1,016
  1,067
  1,119
  1,175
  1,233
  1,295
  1,359
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,651
  1,733
  1,819
  1,910
  2,005
  2,105
  2,210
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
  761
  799
  838
  879
  923
  968
  1,016
  1,067
  1,119
  1,175
  1,233
  1,295
  1,359
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,651
  1,733
  1,819
  1,910
  2,005
  2,105
  2,210
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.440
  1.440
  1.441
  1.440
  1.440
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.440
  1.439
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.441
  1.440
  1.440
  1.439
  1.440
  1.439
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
Average production assets, $m
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
Working capital, $m
  138
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Total debt, $m
  0
  15
  31
  48
  66
  85
  104
  125
  147
  170
  194
  219
  246
  274
  303
  334
  366
  400
  436
  473
  513
  554
  598
  643
  691
  741
  794
  850
  908
  969
  1,034
Total liabilities, $m
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
  538
  565
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  755
  792
  832
  873
  917
  962
  1,010
  1,060
  1,113
  1,169
  1,227
  1,288
  1,353
Total equity, $m
  336
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  282
  295
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  414
  434
  456
  479
  502
  527
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
  858
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  655
  546
  572
  600
  629
  660
  691
  726
  761
  799
  838
  879
  923
  969
  1,016
  1,067
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,294
  1,359
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,650
  1,732
  1,819
  1,910
  2,005
  2,105
  2,211
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.070
  0.140
  0.210
  0.270
  0.330
  0.390
  0.440
  0.500
  0.550
  0.600
  0.640
  0.690
  0.730
  0.770
  0.810
  0.840
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -43
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  213
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  198
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  190
  62
  61
  60
  59
  58
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  43
  40
  37
  34
  31
  27
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses and supports software applications for marketing, sales and onboarding, and customer service needs. The Company also offers software applications built on the Pega platform. Its software is designed to assist clients in building, deploying and evolving enterprise applications. Its applications and platform intersect with and encompass several traditional software markets, including Customer Relationship Management (CRM); Business Process Management (BPM); Business Rules Management Systems (BRMS); Dynamic Case Management (DCM); Decision Management, which includes Predictive and Adaptive analytics, and the Vertical Specific Software (VSS) market of industry solutions and packaged applications. It provides implementation, consulting, training, technical support and hosting services to facilitate the use of its software. The Company offers its services to financial, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, life sciences and other markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pegasystems (PEGA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 137.3
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 11
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 92.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 176.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 72.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 22.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Payout Ratio 33.3%

PEGA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEGA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $750 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pegasystems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pegasystems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEGA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PEGA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pegasystems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pegasystems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEGA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEGA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Pegasystems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pegasystems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEGA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEGA are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pegasystems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEGA is equal to 0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $336 million for Pegasystems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.544 million for Pegasystems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pegasystems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ At $51.75, Is It Time To Buy Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?   [Nov-15-17 04:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pegasystems' Sales Growth Stalls   [Nov-09-17 05:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Pegasystems Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [01:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pegasystems Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Should You Sell Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) At $57.65?   [Oct-02-17 12:17PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-15-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : August 28, 2017   [Aug-28-17 06:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 High-Flying Stocks You Should Buy Anyway   [Aug-14-17 03:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Pegasystems Inc. Stock Fell 11% Today   [Aug-10-17 04:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems posts 2Q profit   [12:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-09-17 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 05:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is This Soaring Software Stock Setting Up To Keep Climbing?   [10:54AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-15-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Pegasystems Stock Jumped 27% in May   [Jun-08-17 07:43PM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of PEGA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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