Intrinsic value of Penumbra - PEN

Previous Close

$134.26

  Intrinsic Value

$2.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$134.26

 
Intrinsic value

$2.68

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.00
  32.90
  30.11
  27.60
  25.34
  23.31
  21.47
  19.83
  18.34
  17.01
  15.81
  14.73
  13.76
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  454
  603
  785
  1,002
  1,255
  1,548
  1,880
  2,253
  2,666
  3,120
  3,613
  4,145
  4,715
  5,323
  5,966
  6,646
  7,360
  8,108
  8,891
  9,708
  10,559
  11,445
  12,367
  13,325
  14,320
  15,355
  16,430
  17,548
  18,710
  19,919
Variable operating expenses, $m
  435
  577
  750
  956
  1,198
  1,476
  1,792
  2,147
  2,540
  2,972
  3,438
  3,944
  4,486
  5,064
  5,677
  6,323
  7,002
  7,714
  8,459
  9,236
  10,046
  10,889
  11,766
  12,677
  13,625
  14,609
  15,632
  16,696
  17,801
  18,951
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  447
  590
  763
  969
  1,211
  1,490
  1,806
  2,161
  2,555
  2,987
  3,453
  3,960
  4,502
  5,080
  5,694
  6,340
  7,019
  7,732
  8,477
  9,255
  10,065
  10,908
  11,786
  12,697
  13,646
  14,630
  15,654
  16,718
  17,824
  18,974
Operating income, $m
  7
  14
  22
  32
  44
  58
  74
  92
  112
  133
  160
  186
  213
  242
  273
  306
  340
  376
  414
  453
  494
  537
  581
  627
  675
  725
  777
  830
  886
  944
EBITDA, $m
  14
  22
  32
  45
  59
  76
  94
  116
  139
  165
  193
  224
  256
  291
  328
  366
  407
  450
  495
  541
  590
  641
  694
  748
  805
  865
  926
  990
  1,057
  1,126
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  15
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  47
  54
  61
  69
  78
  87
  96
  105
  115
  126
  137
  148
  160
  172
  185
  198
  212
  226
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  12
  19
  27
  36
  47
  59
  73
  88
  105
  126
  145
  166
  188
  212
  236
  262
  290
  318
  348
  378
  411
  444
  479
  515
  552
  591
  632
  674
  718
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  182
  194
Net income, $m
  5
  9
  14
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  92
  106
  121
  137
  155
  173
  192
  211
  232
  254
  276
  300
  324
  349
  376
  403
  432
  461
  492
  524

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  426
  566
  737
  940
  1,179
  1,453
  1,765
  2,116
  2,504
  2,929
  3,393
  3,892
  4,428
  4,998
  5,602
  6,240
  6,910
  7,613
  8,348
  9,115
  9,914
  10,746
  11,612
  12,511
  13,446
  14,418
  15,428
  16,477
  17,568
  18,703
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  426
  566
  737
  940
  1,179
  1,453
  1,765
  2,116
  2,504
  2,929
  3,393
  3,892
  4,428
  4,998
  5,602
  6,240
  6,910
  7,613
  8,348
  9,115
  9,914
  10,746
  11,612
  12,511
  13,446
  14,418
  15,428
  16,477
  17,568
  18,703
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.066
  1.065
  1.065
  1.066
  1.064
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
  1.065
Average production assets, $m
  46
  62
  80
  102
  128
  158
  192
  230
  272
  318
  369
  423
  481
  543
  609
  678
  751
  827
  907
  990
  1,077
  1,167
  1,261
  1,359
  1,461
  1,566
  1,676
  1,790
  1,908
  2,032
Working capital, $m
  158
  209
  272
  348
  436
  537
  652
  782
  925
  1,083
  1,254
  1,438
  1,636
  1,847
  2,070
  2,306
  2,554
  2,814
  3,085
  3,369
  3,664
  3,971
  4,291
  4,624
  4,969
  5,328
  5,701
  6,089
  6,492
  6,912
Total debt, $m
  27
  61
  103
  152
  210
  277
  353
  438
  532
  636
  748
  870
  1,000
  1,138
  1,285
  1,440
  1,603
  1,774
  1,952
  2,139
  2,333
  2,535
  2,745
  2,964
  3,191
  3,427
  3,673
  3,928
  4,193
  4,469
Total liabilities, $m
  104
  138
  179
  229
  286
  353
  429
  514
  608
  712
  824
  946
  1,076
  1,215
  1,361
  1,516
  1,679
  1,850
  2,029
  2,215
  2,409
  2,611
  2,822
  3,040
  3,267
  3,504
  3,749
  4,004
  4,269
  4,545
Total equity, $m
  323
  429
  558
  712
  892
  1,100
  1,336
  1,601
  1,895
  2,218
  2,568
  2,946
  3,352
  3,783
  4,241
  4,724
  5,231
  5,763
  6,320
  6,900
  7,505
  8,135
  8,790
  9,471
  10,179
  10,914
  11,679
  12,473
  13,299
  14,158
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  427
  567
  737
  941
  1,178
  1,453
  1,765
  2,115
  2,503
  2,930
  3,392
  3,892
  4,428
  4,998
  5,602
  6,240
  6,910
  7,613
  8,349
  9,115
  9,914
  10,746
  11,612
  12,511
  13,446
  14,418
  15,428
  16,477
  17,568
  18,703
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.140
  0.180
  0.210
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  9
  14
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  92
  106
  121
  137
  155
  173
  192
  211
  232
  254
  276
  300
  324
  349
  376
  403
  432
  461
  492
  524
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  9
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  24
  27
  32
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  18
  24
  32
  41
  52
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  186
  209
  233
  259
  285
  313
  342
  372
  404
  437
  471
  506
  543
  581
  621
  663
  706
Change in working capital, $m
  42
  52
  63
  75
  88
  102
  115
  129
  143
  157
  171
  185
  198
  211
  223
  236
  248
  260
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  332
  346
  359
  373
  388
  403
  419
Cash from operations, $m
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -52
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -41
  -34
  -25
  -14
  -3
  11
  25
  41
  59
  77
  96
  117
  138
  161
  184
  208
  233
  259
  286
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -170
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -134
  -143
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -293
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -128
  -130
  -130
  -129
  -126
  -123
  -118
  -112
  -106
  -98
  -90
  -81
  -72
  -62
  -52
  -41
  -30
  -19
  -7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  121
  130
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  80
  97
  115
  134
  154
  174
  193
  212
  229
  246
  259
  272
  284
  294
  303
  310
  316
  321
  324
  327
  329
  330
  331
  332
  332
  332
  333
  333
  334
  335
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  107
  131
  156
  183
  212
  241
  269
  297
  323
  349
  372
  393
  414
  433
  450
  465
  479
  492
  503
  513
  523
  532
  541
  551
  559
  568
  578
  588
  599
  611
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  63
  78
  94
  111
  130
  149
  169
  189
  209
  230
  246
  266
  285
  303
  321
  339
  356
  374
  391
  408
  425
  442
  460
  478
  497
  516
  537
  558
  580
  603
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -106
  -129
  -154
  -180
  -208
  -236
  -265
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -378
  -405
  -432
  -457
  -483
  -508
  -532
  -556
  -581
  -605
  -630
  -655
  -681
  -708
  -735
  -764
  -794
  -826
  -859
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  163
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  141
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -84
  -93
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  135
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -33
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.7
  93.9
  91.4
  89.3
  87.4
  85.7
  84.2
  82.9
  81.8
  80.7
  79.8
  78.9
  78.2
  77.5
  76.9
  76.3
  75.8
  75.4
  74.9
  74.6
  74.2
  73.9
  73.6
  73.3
  73.0
  72.8
  72.6
  72.4
  72.2
  72.0

Penumbra, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on interventional therapies. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. It has a portfolio of products that addresses medical conditions and clinical needs across two markets, neuro and peripheral vascular. The conditions that its products address include ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke and various peripheral vascular conditions that can be treated through thrombectomy and embolization procedures. It focuses on developing, manufacturing and marketing products for use by specialist physicians, including interventional neuroradiologists, neurosurgeons, interventional neurologists, interventional radiologists and vascular surgeons. Its neuro products include Neurovascular Access, Neuro Thrombectomy (Ischemic Stroke), Neurovascular Embolization (Brain Aneurysms) and Neurosurgical Tools (Hemorrhagic Stroke). Its peripheral vascular products include Peripheral Vascular Embolization and Peripheral Thrombectomy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Penumbra (PEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 278.5
Price to Sales 15.9
Price to Book 15.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -321.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -154.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 180%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 69.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.9%
EBITDA Margin 0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin -0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 1600%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 561.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $333.764 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Penumbra. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Penumbra. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Penumbra, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Penumbra.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $12 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Penumbra.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Penumbra. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEN are equal to 10.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Penumbra operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEN is equal to 34.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $400.408 million for Penumbra - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.379 million for Penumbra is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Penumbra at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.6 billion.

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