Intrinsic value of Performance Food Group - PFGC

Previous Close

$33.29

  Intrinsic Value

$12.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$33.29

 
Intrinsic value

$12.99

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PFGC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.70
  2.93
  3.14
  3.32
  3.49
  3.64
  3.78
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  17,214
  17,719
  18,275
  18,882
  19,541
  20,253
  21,018
  21,837
  22,713
  23,646
  24,639
  25,693
  26,811
  27,995
  29,247
  30,571
  31,969
  33,445
  35,002
  36,643
  38,373
  40,195
  42,114
  44,134
  46,259
  48,496
  50,849
  53,323
  55,925
  58,661
Variable operating expenses, $m
  16,076
  16,544
  17,060
  17,624
  18,236
  18,897
  19,607
  20,368
  21,181
  22,048
  22,878
  23,857
  24,894
  25,994
  27,156
  28,386
  29,684
  31,054
  32,500
  34,024
  35,630
  37,322
  39,103
  40,979
  42,952
  45,029
  47,214
  49,511
  51,927
  54,467
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  991
  1,013
  1,035
  1,058
  1,081
  1,105
  1,130
  1,154
  1,180
  1,206
  1,232
  1,259
  1,287
  1,315
  1,344
  1,374
  1,404
  1,435
  1,467
  1,499
  1,532
  1,566
  1,600
  1,635
  1,671
  1,708
  1,746
  1,784
  1,823
  1,863
Total operating expenses, $m
  17,067
  17,557
  18,095
  18,682
  19,317
  20,002
  20,737
  21,522
  22,361
  23,254
  24,110
  25,116
  26,181
  27,309
  28,500
  29,760
  31,088
  32,489
  33,967
  35,523
  37,162
  38,888
  40,703
  42,614
  44,623
  46,737
  48,960
  51,295
  53,750
  56,330
Operating income, $m
  147
  162
  179
  200
  223
  251
  281
  315
  352
  393
  529
  577
  629
  686
  746
  811
  881
  956
  1,035
  1,121
  1,211
  1,308
  1,411
  1,520
  1,636
  1,759
  1,889
  2,028
  2,175
  2,330
EBITDA, $m
  332
  349
  370
  394
  421
  452
  486
  525
  567
  612
  662
  716
  774
  837
  904
  977
  1,054
  1,136
  1,225
  1,319
  1,419
  1,525
  1,638
  1,758
  1,886
  2,021
  2,164
  2,316
  2,477
  2,647
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
  376
  398
  421
  445
Earnings before tax, $m
  65
  75
  88
  104
  122
  143
  167
  193
  223
  255
  383
  422
  465
  511
  560
  614
  671
  733
  799
  869
  945
  1,025
  1,111
  1,203
  1,300
  1,403
  1,513
  1,630
  1,754
  1,885
Tax expense, $m
  18
  20
  24
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  60
  69
  103
  114
  125
  138
  151
  166
  181
  198
  216
  235
  255
  277
  300
  325
  351
  379
  409
  440
  473
  509
Net income, $m
  48
  55
  64
  76
  89
  104
  122
  141
  163
  187
  280
  308
  339
  373
  409
  448
  490
  535
  583
  635
  690
  749
  811
  878
  949
  1,024
  1,105
  1,190
  1,280
  1,376

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,907
  4,022
  4,148
  4,285
  4,435
  4,597
  4,770
  4,956
  5,155
  5,367
  5,592
  5,831
  6,085
  6,354
  6,638
  6,939
  7,256
  7,591
  7,944
  8,317
  8,709
  9,123
  9,558
  10,017
  10,499
  11,007
  11,541
  12,102
  12,693
  13,314
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,907
  4,022
  4,148
  4,285
  4,435
  4,597
  4,770
  4,956
  5,155
  5,367
  5,592
  5,831
  6,085
  6,354
  6,638
  6,939
  7,256
  7,591
  7,944
  8,317
  8,709
  9,123
  9,558
  10,017
  10,499
  11,007
  11,541
  12,102
  12,693
  13,314
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.407
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
  4.406
Average production assets, $m
  1,153
  1,187
  1,224
  1,265
  1,309
  1,357
  1,408
  1,463
  1,522
  1,584
  1,651
  1,721
  1,796
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,142
  2,241
  2,345
  2,455
  2,571
  2,693
  2,822
  2,957
  3,099
  3,249
  3,407
  3,573
  3,747
  3,930
Working capital, $m
  930
  957
  987
  1,020
  1,055
  1,094
  1,135
  1,179
  1,227
  1,277
  1,331
  1,387
  1,448
  1,512
  1,579
  1,651
  1,726
  1,806
  1,890
  1,979
  2,072
  2,171
  2,274
  2,383
  2,498
  2,619
  2,746
  2,879
  3,020
  3,168
Total debt, $m
  1,595
  1,681
  1,777
  1,881
  1,995
  2,117
  2,248
  2,389
  2,540
  2,700
  2,870
  3,052
  3,244
  3,447
  3,662
  3,890
  4,130
  4,383
  4,651
  4,933
  5,230
  5,543
  5,873
  6,220
  6,585
  6,969
  7,374
  7,799
  8,246
  8,716
Total liabilities, $m
  2,958
  3,044
  3,140
  3,244
  3,357
  3,480
  3,611
  3,752
  3,902
  4,063
  4,233
  4,414
  4,606
  4,810
  5,025
  5,252
  5,493
  5,746
  6,014
  6,296
  6,593
  6,906
  7,236
  7,583
  7,948
  8,332
  8,736
  9,162
  9,609
  10,079
Total equity, $m
  949
  977
  1,008
  1,041
  1,078
  1,117
  1,159
  1,204
  1,253
  1,304
  1,359
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,613
  1,686
  1,763
  1,845
  1,930
  2,021
  2,116
  2,217
  2,323
  2,434
  2,551
  2,675
  2,804
  2,941
  3,084
  3,235
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,907
  4,021
  4,148
  4,285
  4,435
  4,597
  4,770
  4,956
  5,155
  5,367
  5,592
  5,831
  6,085
  6,354
  6,638
  6,938
  7,256
  7,591
  7,944
  8,317
  8,709
  9,123
  9,559
  10,017
  10,499
  11,007
  11,540
  12,103
  12,693
  13,314
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.810
  1.850
  1.900
  1.940
  1.980
  2.030
  2.070
  2.110
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.270
  2.310
  2.340
  2.380
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
  2.580
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  55
  64
  76
  89
  104
  122
  141
  163
  187
  280
  308
  339
  373
  409
  448
  490
  535
  583
  635
  690
  749
  811
  878
  949
  1,024
  1,105
  1,190
  1,280
  1,376
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  185
  188
  191
  194
  198
  201
  206
  210
  215
  220
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  243
  255
  270
  287
  306
  327
  351
  377
  406
  413
  447
  484
  524
  567
  613
  663
  716
  772
  833
  897
  966
  1,039
  1,116
  1,199
  1,286
  1,379
  1,478
  1,582
  1,693
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Cash from operations, $m
  208
  216
  225
  237
  251
  267
  286
  307
  330
  356
  359
  390
  424
  460
  499
  542
  587
  636
  688
  744
  804
  867
  935
  1,007
  1,084
  1,166
  1,252
  1,344
  1,442
  1,545
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -485
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  89
  92
  97
  105
  114
  125
  138
  153
  171
  165
  186
  210
  236
  264
  295
  328
  364
  403
  445
  490
  538
  589
  644
  703
  766
  833
  904
  979
  1,060
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  150
  160
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  267
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  150
  160
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  267
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  168
  175
  188
  202
  218
  236
  257
  279
  304
  331
  336
  368
  402
  439
  479
  522
  569
  618
  671
  727
  787
  851
  919
  991
  1,068
  1,150
  1,237
  1,329
  1,426
  1,530
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  144
  148
  157
  168
  182
  197
  214
  234
  256
  279
  281
  309
  340
  374
  410
  449
  491
  536
  585
  636
  692
  750
  813
  880
  951
  1,027
  1,107
  1,192
  1,283
  1,379
Discount rate, %
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  132
  122
  117
  112
  106
  101
  94
  87
  80
  73
  60
  53
  46
  39
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products. The Company operates through three segments: Performance Foodservice, PFG Customized and Vistar. The Performance Foodservice segment distributes a range of national brands, customer brands, and branded food and food-related products. It sells to independent or street, and multi-unit or chain, restaurants and other institutions. Its PFG Customized segment provides service to family and casual dining restaurant chains, and fast casual and quick service restaurant chains. Its Vistar segment specializes in distributing candy, snacks, beverages and other items nationally to the vending, office coffee service, theater, hospitality and other channels. Its products include a range of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared appetizers and entrees, and desserts; a range of canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products, and snack and other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Performance Food Group (PFGC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 140.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 4.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Operating Margin 1.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

PFGC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PFGC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16761.8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Performance Food Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Performance Food Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PFGC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for PFGC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Performance Food Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Performance Food Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PFGC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $970 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PFGC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Performance Food Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Performance Food Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PFGC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PFGC are equal to 6.7%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Performance Food Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PFGC is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $925.5 million for Performance Food Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.736 million for Performance Food Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Performance Food Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Performance Food: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food Group's Q4 Earnings Preview   [Aug-14-18 02:47PM  Benzinga]
▶ Jefferies Initiates Coverage Of Major Food Players   [Jun-08-18 04:38PM  Benzinga]
▶ Performance Food: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Georgias highest-priced home offers 446 acres, car collector barn for $16.5M (Photos)   [Apr-25-18 05:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Wellspring Selling 5 Million Shares of Performance Food Group   [Nov-21-17 01:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Performance Food posts 1Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food Sees IBD RS Rating Climb To 72   [Nov-06-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 6th   [Oct-06-17 09:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Performance Food Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for October 4th   [Oct-04-17 08:53AM  Zacks]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Price Strength: Performance Food   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]

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